1. Houston Astros – RHP Mark Appel – Stanford – Appel seemed to be off the Astros radar for a while with the focus being on Oklahoma’s Jonathan Gray and North Carolina’s Colin Moran. I am led to believe Houston/Appel feel they have a figure that they are willing to do and he will be the pick.

2. Chicago Cubs – RHP Jonathan Gray – Oklahoma – I have heard some late buzz that the Cubs very well may take San Diego third baseman Kris Bryant, but the overwhelming opinion is they will take whichever pitcher Houston doesn’t. If Houston goes Moran then Cubs probably take Appel.

3. Colorado Rockies – 3B Kris Bryant – San Diego – I have received word that Colorado has an agreement with Appel’s reps that if he makes it to #3 they will take him and give him a ~$7M bonus. If not Appel or Gray I think the pick is locked in to be Bryant.

4. Minnesota Twins – RHP Kohl Stewart – St Pius X HS (TX) – Everyone thinks this is what the Twins will do. There still is lingering buzz about a below slot “reach” on high school catcher Reese McGuire. I can’t fathom the Twins passing on Stewart but stranger things have happened. I am sticking with it though.

5. Cleveland Indians – 3B Colin Moran – North Carolina – If he doesn’t go to Houston at #1 he will very likely go here. Moran won’t go 2,3 or 4.

6. Miami Marlins – RHP Braden Shipley – Nevada – Everything suggests the Marlins will be going cheap with this selection, though they had Austin Meadows in for a workout and he reportedly was great at it. Consensus is this pick is down to Shipley or New Mexico 3B DJ Peterson

7. Boston Red Sox – OF Clint Frazier – Loganville HS (GA) – If you ask 10 people if Boston prefers Clint Frazier or Meadows you may get it split 5 and 5. I think they’d take Kohl Stewart if he made it here though.

8. Kansas City Royals – LHP Trey Ball – New Castle HS (IND) – There is a lot of buzz around Phil Bickford being the pick. Trey Ball just simply has more upside for me. Unless Bickford is taking a dirt cheap deal I think they go Ball here.

9. Pittsburgh Pirates – C Reese McGuire – Kentwood HS (WA) – I think this pick will come down to McGuire, DJ Peterson or Ball. This is the pick they got for failing to sign Appel last year.

10. Toronto Blue Jays – OF Austin Meadows – Grayson HS (GA) – At this point I think the Jays pick will come down to Meadows or Ball. The Jays tend to really value upside and you can make the argument that Meadows has the best upside in the draft.

11. New York Mets – 3B DJ Peterson – New Mexico – Mets would love more than anything for Meadows to be sitting there to be picked. I labeled it a coin flip a couple days ago, now I think it’s at best 30%. Hunter Renfroe is really in play here as Mets scouting director Tommy Tanous has spent a rather large amount of time watching him this spring.

12. Seattle Mariners – RHP Ryne Stanek – Arkansas – Mariners likely picking between Stanek or Renfroe. When it’s a bat vs an arm I tend to believe teams goes arm.

13. San Diego Padres –RHP Phil Bickford – Oaks Christian HS (CA) – Padres could go Renfroe but Bickford is mighty appealing at this spot.

14. Pittsburgh Pirates – OF Hunter Renfroe – Mississippi State – Pirates make out with two nice bats. This is the only spot I even could consider putting Sean Manaea.

15. Arizona Diamondbacks – LHP Ian Clarkin – Madison HS (CA) – One of my personal favorites. I love the fastball/curve combo he has. Arizona adds yet another huge upside arm to their system.

16. Philadelphia Phillies – 1B Dominic Smith – Serra HS (CA)
17. Chicago White Sox – RHP Alex Gonzalez – Oral Roberts
18. Los Angeles Dodgers – C Nick Ciuffo – Lexington HS (SC)
19. St Louis Cardinals – SS J.P. Crawford – Lakewood HS (CA)
20. Detroit Tigers – RHP Hunter Harvey – Bandys HS (NC)
21. Tampa Bay Rays – OF Aaron Judge – Fresno State
22. Baltimore Orioles – OF Austin Wilson – Stanford
23. Texas Rangers – SS Tim Anderson – East Central CC
24. Oakland Athletics – RHP Chris Anderson – Jacksonville
25. San Francisco Giants – LHP Matt Krook – St Ignatius Prep (CA)
26. New York Yankees – OF Billy McKinney – Plano HS (TX)
27. Cincinnati Reds – 3B Eric Jagielo – Notre Dame
28. St Louis Cardinals – RHP Marco Gonzales – Gonzaga
29. Tampa Bay Rays – OF Phillip Ervin – Samford
30. Texas Rangers – LHP Hunter Green – Warren East HS (KY)
31. Atlanta Braves – OF Josh Hart – Parkview HS (GA)
32. New York Yankees – LHP Rob Kaminsky – St Joseph HS (NJ)
33. New York Yankees – C Jon Denney – Yukon HS (OK)

1. Mark Appel – RHP – Stanford
2. Jonathan Gray – RHP – Oklahoma
3. Clint Frazier – OF – Loganville HS (GA)
4. Kris Bryant – 3B – San Diego
5. Kohl Stewart – RHP – St Pius X HS (TX)
6. Austin Meadows – OF – Grayson HS (GA)
7. Colin Moran – 3B – North Carolina
8. Braden Shipley – RHP – Nevada
9. Sean Manaea – LHP – Indiana State
10. Hunter Renfroe – OF – Mississippi State
11. Dominic Smith – 1B – Serra HS (CA)
12. Trey Ball – LHP – New Castle HS (IN)
13. Reese McGuire – C – Kentwood HS (WA)
14. Ian Clarkin – LHP – Madison HS (CA)
15. DJ Peterson – 3B – New Mexico
16. J.P. Crawford – SS – Lakewood HS (CA)
17. Ryne Stanek – RHP – Arkansas
18. Alex Gonzalez – RHP – Oral Roberts
19. Aaron Judge – OF – Fresno State
20. Phil Bickford – RHP – Oaks Christian HS (CA)
21. Nick Ciuffo – C – Lexington HS (SC)
22. Jon Denney – C – Yukon HS (OK)
23. Austin Wilson – OF – Stanford
24. Marco Gonzales – LHP – Gonzaga
25. Devin Williams – RHP – Hazelwood West HS (MO)

Also please look Thursday morning for my final 2013 MLB Mock Draft.

1. Houston Astros – RHP Jonathan Gray – Oklahoma – I personally believe this pick will come down to Gray or North Carolina 3B Colin Moran. I have heard Appel is not on the top of their list.

2. Chicago Cubs – RHP Mark Appel – Stanford – Even though there is some support for Gray in the organization, I think the Cubs really want Appel. I don’t see the draft shaking out where they cannot select the right hander.

3. Colorado Rockies – 3B Kris Bryant – San Diego – A match made in heaven. Dream on Bryant hitting 35-40 HR a year for the Rockies.

4. Minnesota Twins – RHP Kohl Stewart – St Pius X HS (TX) – The Twins have been tied to Stewart for so long it makes you wonder if there’s something else going on. For now I am going to stick with the Twins taking the big right hander. Outside shot of a below slot deal for catcher Reese McGuire.

5. Cleveland Indians – 3B Colin Moran – North Carolina – If Moran doesn’t go to Houston I don’t think he goes before this pick. Nor do I think he goes after this pick.

6. Miami Marlins – RHP Braden Shipley – Nevada – Everything suggests the Marlins will be going cheap with this selection, though they had Austin Meadows in for a workout and he reportedly was great at it. Consensus is this pick is down to Shipley or New Mexico 3B/1B DJ Peterson

7. Boston Red Sox – OF Clint Frazier – Loganville HS (GA) – Chance at a college pitcher (Shipley or Ryne Stanek) but most think the Sox are prepared to take Frazier.

8. Kansas City Royals – OF Austin Meadows – Grayson HS (GA) – Kansas City will heavily consider Stanek or Alex Gonzalez as college arms but I think they will struggle to pass on the potential that Meadows provides.

9. Pittsburgh Pirates – C Reese McGuire – Kentwood HS (WA) – I think this pick will come down to McGuire, Peterson or high school lefty Trey Ball. This is the pick they got for failing to sign Appel last year so they need someone signable. McGuire is the perfect combination of signability+talent.

10. Toronto Blue Jays – RHP Hunter Harvey – Bandys HS (NC) – We have our first pick that is considered to be the pick that is the well below slot deal that enables more spending later on. Word is the Blue Jays may be a team to do that.

11. New York Mets – 1B DJ Peterson – New Mexico – I think the Mets would love a shot at Meadows and it’s a coin flip as to if he will make it to 11 or not. If not him I think Peterson is high on their list. Kiley McDaniel of scoutingbaseball.com dropped a Billy Butler comparison on Peterson (as a bat) on an interview with me that you guys will hear very soon. If Meadows and Peterson are both gone I think they go Hunter Renfroe whom their scouting director has seen multiple times.

12. Seattle Mariners – RHP Ryne Stanek – Arkansas – Mariners likely picking between Stanek or Renfroe. When it’s a bat vs an arm I tend to believe teams goes arm.

13. San Diego Padres – RHP Phil Bickford – Oaks Christian HS (CA) – Another one of your below slot deals. Should also consider Renfroe.

14. Pittsburgh Pirates – LHP Trey Ball – New Castle HS (IND) – They almost take Ball at #9 and luck out that he makes it to them at 14. McGuire and Ball is a nice little 1st round for Pittsburgh.

15. Arizona Diamondbacks – OF Hunter Renfroe – Mississippi State – Definitely think this is Renfroe’s floor. They would consider Fresno State’s Aaron Judge. I think Arizona wants a college power bat.

16. Philadelphia Phillies – 1B Dominic Smith – Serra HS (CA)
17. Chicago White Sox – RHP Alex Gonzalez – Oral Roberts
18. Los Angeles Dodgers – RHP Devin Williams – Hazelwood West HS (MO)
19. St Louis Cardinals – SS J.P. Crawford – Lakewood HS (CA)
20. Detroit Tigers – LHP Ian Clarkin – Madison HS (CA)
21. Tampa Bay Rays – C Nick Ciuffo – Lexington HS (SC)
22. Baltimore Orioles – OF Billy McKinney – Plano HS (TX)
23. Texas Rangers – SS Tim Anderson – East Central CC
24. Oakland Athletics – RHP Chris Anderson – Jacksonville
25. San Francisco Giants – LHP Matt Krook – St Ignatius Prep (CA)
26. New York Yankees – OF Austin Wilson – Stanford
27. Cincinnati Reds – OF Josh Hart – Parkview HS (GA)
28. St Louis Cardinals – RHP Marco Gonzales – Gonzaga
29. Tampa Bay Rays – SS Travis Demeritte – Winder-Barrow HS (GA)
30. Texas Rangers – C Jon Denney – Yukon HS (OK)
31. Atlanta Braves – OF Josh Hart – Parkview HS (GA)
32. New York Yankees – LHP Rob Kaminsky – St Joseph HS (NJ)
33. New York Yankees – 3B Eric Jagielo – Notre Dame

1. Houston Astros – RHP Jonathan Gray – Oklahoma
2. Chicago Cubs – RHP Mark Appel – Stanford
3. Colorado Rockies – 3B Kris Bryant – San Diego
4. Minnesota Twins – RHP Kohl Stewart – St Pius X HS (TX)
5. Cleveland Indians – 3B Colin Moran – North Carolina
6. Miami Marlins – RHP Braden Shipley – Nevada
7. Boston Red Sox – LHP Sean Manaea – Indiana State
8. Kansas City Royals – OF Austin Meadows – Grayson HS (GA)
9. Pittsburgh Pirates – 3B DJ Peterson – New Mexico
10. Toronto Blue Jays – OF Clint Frazier – Loganville HS (GA)
11. New York Mets – OF Hunter Renfroe – Mississippi State
12. Seattle Mariners – RHP Ryne Stanek – Arkansas
13. San Diego Padres – LHP Trey Ball – New Castle HS (IN)
14. Pittsburgh Pirates – 1B Dominic Smith – Serra HS (CA)
15. Arizona Diamondbacks – OF Aaron Judge – Fresno State
16. Philadelphia Phillies – C Reese McGuire – Kentwood HS (WA)
17. Chicago White Sox – RHP Alex Gonzalez – Oral Roberts
18. Los Angeles Dodgers – RHP Kyle Serrano – Farragut HS (TN)
19. St Louis Cardinals – SS J.P. Crawford – Lakewood HS (CA)
20. Detroit Tigers – C Nick Ciuffo – Lexington HS (SC)
21. Tampa Bay Rays – RHP Devin Williams – Hazelwood West HS(MO)
22. Baltimore Orioles – OF Austin Wilson – Stanford
23. Texas Rangers – LHP Matt Krook – St Ignatius Prep (CA)
24. Oakland Athletics – LHP Rob Kaminsky – St Joseph HS (NJ)
25. San Francisco Giants – RHP Hunter Harvey – Bandys HS(NC)
26. New York Yankees – RHP Chris Anderson – Jacksonville
27. Cincinnati Reds – OF Billy McKinney – Plano West Sr HS (TX)
28. St Louis Cardinals – LHP Marco Gonzales – Gonzaga
29. Tampa Bay Rays – C Jon Denney – Yukon HS (OK)
30. Texas Rangers – SS Travis Demeritte – Winder-Barrow HS (GA)
31. Atlanta Braves – 3B Eric Jagielo – Notre Dame
32. New York Yankees – OF Ryan Boldt – Red Wing HS (MN)
33. New York Yankees – LHP Ian Clarkin – James Madison HS (CA)

Mets General Manager Sandy Alderson made a point to Jim Bowden on Sirius XM that with the trades of Carlos Beltran and RA Dickey in addition to the last two drafts, that the farm has bolstered to the point where they can at least consider giving up the #11 pick for a player like Bourn. He is right the farm system has made some serious strides since Paul DePodesta took over when Alderson came aboard. Before this new regime the Mets typically would have among the 3 worst farms in the game. Now you are talking about a team that could be ranked as high as top 15 depending on who you ask.

As they mentioned on the MLB Network Top 50 Prospect show last night, you have to go back to the 1980’s for the last time the Mets had two top 10 prospects in the game. This year they had two with pitcher Zack Wheeler coming in at #8 and catcher Travis d’Arnaud coming in at #6 and even getting a comparison to Buster Posey from former Rangers GM Jon Hart. Pitcher Noah Syndergaard also made the list at #29. There are definitely some exciting times ahead with some of the excellent talent the Mets have.

The question now is when? When do you start making the plunge into free agency or trades to acquire the necessary veteran pieces to put around your talented youngsters to make this team into a perennial contender? Let’s not even get into the argument about whether the #11 pick should be protected. (As you know the Mets had the #10 pick, but since the Pirates failed to sign their first round pick Mark Appel last year the Mets got shifted to pick #11) Discussing that is an piece for maybe another day.

The new Collective Bargaining Agreement has a slot value for each pick. This means based on all your picks that your team possesses in the top 10 rounds there is a dollar amount that MLB recommends you spend on each of those selections. You may play around with the money in the sense of giving less to a 1st rounder to pay more for a 2nd etc. Going over your allotted bonus money will get you a big fine in dollars, and depending how much you go over, in draft picks. The downside to losing the pick for Bourn is the money that was allotted for that pick goes away. The Mets would not be able to spend that elsewhere so it really lowers their odds of getting high quality talent throughout the draft, not just round one.

If the Mets do decide to forfeit the pick and the draft bonus allotment in order to add Bourn it shows a clear commitment to winning in the very near future. As a Mets fan I obviously want to see them win so there is some level of desire to see a winner sooner than later, but I try to be as logical as possible. I want them to win but I do not want them to fall into what happened a lot during Omar Minaya’s tenure as GM, which was forfeit the first-round pick to buy players. Of course Minaya arranged the selections of Matt Harvey and Ike Davis, both of whom are building blocks for this team. But let’s go back a little bit and assess the loss of 1st round picks for players signed and what players were selected with that pick and in that area.

2009: Surrendered #24 overall pick to sign RHP Francisco Rodriguez. The Angels selected outfielder Randal Grichuk with that pick. Grichuk obviously hasn’t panned out, but the #25 pick was current superstar Mike Trout, #27 was top Mariners shortstop prospect Nick Franklin and #28 was the toolsy and talented outfielder Reymond Fuentes. The Mets first pick came in the 2nd round and they took Long Island high school left hander Steven Matz who is talented but has yet to reach full season ball.

2007: Surrendered #29 overall pick to sign OF Moises Alou. The Giants selected outfielder Wendell Fairley with that pick. Again the specific pick didn’t work out, but there’s no saying that is the guy the Mets would have selected. Within a few picks of #29 guys like Reds shortstop Todd Frazier, Rangers outfielder Julio Borbon and current Met Travis d’Arnaud were selected. The Mets first selection that year was in the supplemental first round where they took Eddie Kunz who had a cup of coffee with the Mets and has sort of fallen off since.

2006: Surrendered #18 pick to sign LHP Billy Wagner. The Phillies selected pitcher Kyle Drabek with that pick. Drabek has fallen off some but he has made the bigs and was considered a top prospect in the league for some time. A couple picks later Ian Kennedy was selected. Wouldn’t he look nice in the Mets rotation? The Mets first pick that year was in the 2nd round when they selected pitcher Kevin Mulvey who is now retired.

The point really is if you give up the pick this year for Bourn you are sacrificing the chance of adding a potential impact talent in the 1st round while also hindering what you can do in rounds after that. If you sign Bourn that solves one outfield spot and next off season comes around and the Mets are expected to have quite a bit of financial flexibility to be able to add players to the roster. Hunter Pence is an example of a free agent outfielder who could fit and would surely get a qualifying offer from the Phillies. If you sign Bourn he has the chance to make an impact to the level of making the Mets have a unprotected pick in the 2014 draft.

While you have added two quality players which obviously would help the Mets win, you have basically tarnished the next two drafts due to losing the picks themselves and the money that goes with them. Ideally you want the Mets to become similar to the Texas Rangers as an organization. The Rangers are competitive every year but always manage to have a top farm system to go with it. In order to sustain success for a long period of time you have to have the ability to keep churning talent from your farm system and turning them into quality big league players. If the Mets start relinquishing their 1st round pick year after year it will severely hamper the farm system and lead to in my opinion a short lived period of time of being a major contender.

To sum up my point I cannot say I would have any interest in the Mets surrendering the #11 draft pick to sign Bourn. It isn’t even all because of the player the Mets could take at that spot, but the players they can take at other spots thanks to the budget allotment available from having the #11 pick. I want the Mets to be a long term success, and to do so you need have a farm system that keeps feeding the major league team and feeding other teams in trade for their quality veteran players.

Interview with Michael Fulmer