In early May the San Francisco Giants visited Citi Field for a 3 game series with the Mets. Mets lost 2 out of 3 games, though put up a fight in each game. For some reason that week a rumor began to float around of a possible trade brewing between the Mets and Giants for Jose Reyes. Obviously these rumors were false given the date of the season. But were they completely false?

I’m not saying I believe Sandy Alderson discussed dealing Reyes with Brian Sabean in early May. However the buzz surrounding the rumors may have been just foreshadowing a possible deal. The Giants recently recalled top prospect Brandon Belt from AAA. Today news broke that they plan to use him in a bench role. In my opinion that is the worst thing they could do with a young player like Belt. Unless say they are showcasing him for a possible trade…

Brandon Belt is a 1B by trade. However many people believe he could handle a corner OF position at the Major League level. That means maybe he could slide into RF when Beltran is traded/leaves in FA (most likely traded). Obviously 1B is locked up in Metsie land for years to come with one of my personal favorite players Ike Davis. If Belt can handle RF he could bring a nice young bat to the Mets lineup.

Who else could be in play in a possible trade? Maybe Brandon Crawford. Crawford was just promoted from Single-A to the majors. That’s a pretty major jump even for a prospect of Crawfords age (24). The Giants may be trying to showcase Crawford for a possible trade as well.

The last person of interest in a possible Mets/Giants Reyes trade is Zack Wheeler. He is the top Giants pitching prospect. More than likely if Sabean/Alderson do talk this guy’s name will be brought up. I doubt we could get Belt and Wheeler for Reyes without them getting a window to negotiate a new contract. But crazier things have happened. Maybe we can throw in Thole to replace Buster Posey, who will be lost for most of the 2011 season after his injury.

Either way don’t be surprised if you start hearing Mets/Giants trade rumors heating up as we approach the July 31 trade deadline.

As if I even need to introduce it, obviously everyone knows about the Fred Wilpon quotes that came out this morning. He says Jose Reyes isn’t going to get Carl Crawford money. He says David Wright is a very good player, not a superstar. He makes a joke about the Carlos Beltran contract and says he’s 65-70% of what he was. He then goes on to say the team is s_____.

Are any of these things that the fans don’t say? I know he’s the owner and he shouldn’t say these things publicly. But he did, and to be honest Mets fans need to stop crying about it. My Twitter feed is flooded with everyone crying about it. Isn’t it a shame that the Mets have an owner who genuinely cares and has a vested interest in how the team does?

The only reason fans should cry for the team to be sold is because of the Madoff stuff. When it comes to passion, and love of his product, few owners compare to Fred Wilpon. He wants the Mets to win and is upset when they don’t. When the Mets were losing to the Astros I was saying how they sucked too. What people need to realize is this is New York City. Toughen up! George Steinbrenner said this kind of stuff all the time and I have no issue with it.

A common trend on Twitter is fans say “How will the players react to this?” Are you kidding me? These are grown adults getting paid millions of dollars to play baseball in the best city in the world. If there is any reaction it simply should be: “Let me prove him wrong”. Guess what? Like it or not, everything he says is true. Fans need to be less sensitive, and the players need to take it as motivation to be better. What does that say about the players if they have some wimpy reaction to it? It says they are not made for this team or this city.

Another thing people don’t take into account is this is HIS team. He has every right to say whatever his heart desires about the New York Mets. Just like you can say whatever you want about whatever you own. Do I think he should have put it the way he did publicly? Probably not, but it’s as simple as the truth hurts sometimes. The Mets are not a winner in 2011, and frankly unlikely to be so in 2012 either, and it frustrates Wilpon who puts so much of his heart and money into this team. So I can’t blame him for his lashing.

It’s as simple as this, in New York it’s about winning. The Mets haven’t done a whole lot of that, and it’s not because of Fred Wilpon. It’s because of the people he’s writing checks to, starting in the front office. I think Sandy Alderson’s administration is on the way to turning this thing around, but Fred hired Omar Minaya to run the Mets, and the owner’s job is just to write the checks, not make moves. When the owners start making moves you have a Rafael Soriano to the Yankees situation. You hire a General Manager and you trust him to lead your baseball team to where it belongs.

Fans are being oversensitive, the players we don’t know yet, but they should take it as motivation. The Mets over the past few years have more than had enough talent to make it deep in the playoffs. In 2006 they were the best team in baseball period. The players are not doing what is on the back of their baseball card, the players are not doing what is required to become a champion. Until they do that it won’t matter who the owner is, who the GM is, or who the coaching staff is. End of the day it is about the players performing, and frankly they haven’t done it over the past few years.

I don’t know if that means tear the thing down and start over completely, but either way I think the quotes from Wilpon are very fair and honest. What more would you like from ownership than for them to be fair and honest? If the team isn’t playing well and they mask it the fans scream. Now Wilpon says what everyone feels and everyone has a problem with it?

Before I really jump full fledged back into prospect mode, I wanted to give one more piece on the big league team. My contributors will still give it coverage, but I am going to jump to where I feel most comfortable, and that is extensive coverage of the minors.

My personal opinion on Sandy Alderson’s first offseason as Mets GM is that considering the financial situation he was given, he did a heck of a job. Virtually every move he decided to do made sense in some fashion. He filled out the rotation with two arms so there can be depth at AAA. He got some bullpen competition, he got solid bench contributors and good competition at second base. Unlike his predecessor, Sandy Alderson built a complete team. Is it the best team ever? No. But it has atleast capable players at every position on the diamond.

I will do a lot of coverage of minor league and major league camp when I go to St Lucie for spring training March 5th – 12th. Here are my pre-spring training predictions as to what the 2011 Opening Day Mets will look like:

Lineup:
1. SS Jose Reyes
2. RF Angel Pagan
3. 3B David Wright
4. CF Carlos Beltran
5. LF Jason Bay
6. 1B Ike Davis
7. 2B Daniel Murphy (platoon with Brad Emaus. Should face Josh Johnson OD, so I’ll say Murphy gets the start.)
8. C Josh Thole
9. P Mike Pelfrey

If healthy this lineup should be easily a top 3 lineup in the NL. I don’t think there is a weakness in the lineup if everyone is healthy. I am really excited to see what it can do.

Bench:
C Mike Nickeas (Ronny Paulino is suspended first 8 games for PED use)
2B/3B Brad Emaus (a kind of platoon with Murphy)
MIF Chin-lung Hu (he’ll beat Justin Turner,Luis Hernandez for job)
OF/2B Scott Hairston (he’ll compete with Nick Evans and win)
OF Willie Harris (he’s your straight up 4th outfielder)

I actually really like this bench. Good defensive players all around, and some solid pop too. The bench I think could be a real strength for the 2011 Mets.

Rotation:
1. RHP Mike Pelfrey
2. LHP Jon Niese
3. RHP RA Dickey
4. LHP Chris Capuano
5. RHP Chris Young

This rotation has upside, but extreme downside. If all healthy, it could certainly be formidable. If not, then the Mets are going to tank .. fast.

Bullpen:
1. RHP Francisco Rodriguez
2. RHP Bobby Parnell
3. RHP Taylor Buchholz
4. RHP DJ Carrasco
5. LHP Tim Byrdak
6. RHP Pedro Beato
7. RHP Manny Acosta

You don’t have a pure long reliever in the pen, but DJ Carrasco and theoretically Pedro Beato(starter before 2010 in minors) should be able to give you multiple innings if you need it. You probably lose Pat Misch though to waivers.

By my estimations, this is the 25-man roster I could see the Mets going into 2011 with if the season started tomorrow -

Starting Lineup – Jose Reyes, Angel Pagan, David Wright, Carlos Beltran, Ike Davis, Jason Bay, Josh Thole, Daniel Murphy.

Bench – Ronny Paulino, Brad Emaus, Luis Castillo, Luis Hernandez, Lucas Duda.

Starting Rotation – Mike Pelfrey, Jon Niese, R.A. Dickey, Chris Capuano, Dillon Gee.

Bullpen – Oliver Perez, Manny Acosta, Taylor Buchholz, Pat Misch, D.J. Carrasco, Bobby Parnell, Francisco Rodriguez.

Of those 25 players, the ones I see most likely being replaced by opening day are Luis Castillo, Luis Hernandez, Lucas Duda, Dillon Gee, Oliver Perez, and Pat Misch. Thats 6 spots that are subject to change depending on moves made from now until opening day as well as camp battles that will unfold.

Sandy Alderson will most likely sign one more starting pitcher. My bet is still on Chris Young. So stick Dillon Gee in AAA as insurance. Also expect Alderson to sign a lefty reliever eventually. Right now he’s in wait-mode to see which one of his choices price drops the lowest. Names like Tim Byrdak, Clay Rapada, Taylor Tankersley, Ron Mahay, Joe Beimel, Will Ohman, and Dennys Reyes are all possibilities. A 4th Outfielder is also a possibility for a bargain bin signing eventually. I have extreme doubts the Mets plan to use Lucas Duda in that role to start the season.

Camp Battles are also going to have an affect on the final 25-man roster. Daniel Murphy, Brad Emaus, Luis Hernandez, Luis Castillo, and Chin-Lung Hu will all compete for the 2B job in spring training. I see only 2-3 of those guys actually making the roster. I see Lucas Duda and Fernando Martinez competing for the 4th OF job if the Mets don’t sign anyone. Terry Collins has already gone on record saying he will give F-Mart a shot at winning the job in the Spring. I see no chance in hell that Oliver Perez makes the opening day roster. He’s pitched awful over the winter and shows no sign of improving anytime soon. Pat Misch will probably find him himself in AAA as insurance or waived. However if we sign just one more SP and a Lefty Reliever, then theres a chance Misch or Perez makes the team as the 25th man in a Long Reliever position since Gee will be sent to AAA. My money would be on Misch winning that battle.

Either way the 25-man roster is far from set. Over 20% of the roster is in question going into camp. Lot’s of fun battles are likely to unfold over Spring. It’s going to be a lot of fun to watch.

Who knew that these Carlos Beltran rumors would come up and actually have some substance? What exactly the Mets would get in return is unknown, but according to Peter Gammons they have shown interest in RHP Daisuke Matsuzaka and SS/2B Marco Scutaro. I think a Beltran for Matsuzaka deal could work out well for both sides.

Boston is looking hard for a right handed hitter who can play the outfield with power. Beltran is a switch hitter with some power from the left side, though he has more power from the left side (career .512 slg vs RHP, .472 vs LHP). I tend to believe with the short porch in left field Beltran’s slugging percentage from the right side might end up being a little higher than career norm. The Red Sox either have or intend to take a look at Beltran’s medical records according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe, and if that’s the case then the talks absolutely have some substance.

Beltran has a full no trade clause, though I am sure he’d waive it to go to a more hitter friendly park, and a more competitive team for his pre-free agency season. The thing is, in Boston he wouldn’t be able to play center field full time, maybe they give him some starts there, but he’d be primarily a corner outfielder there with Mike Cameron roaming center. But the Red Sox also get another bat to combat possibly Cliff Lee and CC Sabathia from the Yankees.

The Mets on the other hand are in dire need of starting pitching help. Matsuzaka can provide some help there, though he does take out a chunk of the 2012 spending due to making $10M a year for both 2011, 2012. But with a pretty weak free agent starting pitching class next year headed by Mark Buehrle and Edwin Jackson, maybe having Matsuzaka around wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world.

Matsuzaka likely would slot at the top or just behind Mike Pelfrey in the Mets opening day rotation, which is something the Mets could really use. You also account for the fact he’s moving from tiny Fenway park to spacious Citi Field, and from the AL East to the National League. You could see a much better pitcher on the Mets than you did on Boston (though the walks I am sure will transfer over). He should theoretically put up atleast good #3 starter or even better numbers in the NL.

It’s been pointed out on multiple sites that $5M of Beltran’s $18.5M is deferred and is to be paid after 2011, which essentially makes Beltran a $13.5M player for anyone that deliberates trading for him. If the Mets were to take back Matsuzaka’s $10M it makes Beltran essentially a $3.5M player for 2011. And no, if I am taking Matsuzaka for Beltran I am not eating the deferred money.

The Mets have nearly $60M coming off the books after 2011, and with a pretty weak free agent market outside of Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder and Dan Uggla, is spending $10M on Matsuzaka the worst thing in the world? You also have to take into account it is nowhere even remotely close to a certainty Beltran is healthy enough to be moved at the deadline and you may end up getting nothing in return for him. But that’s Sandy’s dilemma. If he has confidence that Beltran will be healthy playing the outfield almost every day, then keep him and see what’s there in July. If he doesn’t, then go ahead and look to move him now while you can.

Based on what we think we know about Sandy Alderson here is a partial list of players I think might make some sense going after on the FA market. Alderson made pretty clear the Mets will NOT be players for the “big” players in the FA market but the Mets without question will need to plug some holes within the offense (2b, backup catcher)

1B- Ike Davis unquestionably is our starting 1b but it would be surprising to see Chris Carter back with the Mets this year considering he is out of options and his absolutely horrendous fielding. The fact Carter (like Davis) hits lefty doesn’t help his case. The FA 1b market does not have any “clear” options for a righty hitting 1b to backup Ike. The best option available looks to be Ty Wigginton who conceivably could join the Mets as a platoon partner/insurance with Ruben Tejada (for all we know Sandy intends to send Ruben back to AAA where he more likely than not still belongs) maybe Justin Turner is the Mets starting 2b but Wigginton has the “power” Sandy spoke about in the press conference, can play 1b/2b/3b and the corner OF position and has some of the “fire” the Mets have been lacking. Wiggy hit 248/312/415 with 22 homers this season.

2b- Personally I am of the belief that if the Mets can’t get a true MAJOR upgrade at 2b (Uggla, Kelly Johnson etc) I would roll the dice with Tejada/Murphy/Turner with a veteran backup like Eckstein but the current list of FA 2b includes Orlando Hudson (he’s older and said he has no interest in splitting time with a young player so he doesn’t seem like an ideal fit), Jose Lopez who almost surely will be non-tendered (personally I am not a fan of his) and the legend known as Kaz Matsui

SS- We have a SS (hopefully Reyes retires a Met) but the FA SS market is rather weak. Maybe the Mets look at someone like Counsell as a backup/utility player but I have a hard time believing the Mets sign anyone of note to backup Reyes

3b- Same as SS. Adrian Beltre is likely the cream of the crop at the hot corner but we have Wright… hopefully for the next 10-12 years.

OF- The Mets figure to have Bay/Beltan/Pagan (in some configuration) in the OF. It’s pretty clear they won’t be in on Carl Crawford or Jayson Werth. I think they need to add an above average 4th OF considering the fact that Bay/Pagan/Beltran are all injury prone/concerns. Options would include Rick Ankiel, Austin Kearns, Eric Hinske, Podsednik (I’d love to add Podsednik as our 4th OF but someone likely signs him to start)

C- The Mets need a backup catcher. They can resign Blanco though his age (40) and injury issues are likely a decent concern. Options include Rod Barajas (yuck), Miguel Olivo (I’d make him an offer) if the Rockies don’t pick up his option, John Buck (he’s going to get a starting job from someone more likely than not), Pierzynski (is he ok as a backup? who knows), Varitek (might make a nice mentor for Thole) and Greg Zaun (if the Brewers turn down his option)