St. Lucie to Flushing

2012: Another Lost Year, But The Future Is Bright

When you look on paper at the NL East it’s pretty easy to say that the Mets are destined to finish in last place, some even predicting 95+ losses. 2011’s last place finisher, the Marlins added Jose Reyes, Heath Bell and Mark Buehrle. The Phillies and Braves are still the top 2 in the division and the Nationals won 80 games and are heading up with prospects like Bryce Harper coming and the return of Stephen Strasburg.

 How about the Mets? Well they added Frank Francisco, Jon Rauch, Ramon Ramriez and Andres Torres. Doesn’t quite give you the excitement of the other teams does it? Fact is with the loss of Jose Reyes and the fact that who knows when/if Johan Santana will pitch in 2012 things seem to look pretty down. For 2012 to have a chance at success you need quite a few players to have career years, as well as someway somehow they have to keep their roster on the field for the most part.

 Do I think it’s possible the Mets can contend in 2012? I do not believe so. Can the Mets surprise people and win 80 games? Sure I’ll go with that. But that’s with everything breaking right. With all that said I think 2012 does have a chance to “excite” the fan base as Sandy Alderson said. I believe this year can excite the fan base because they have the possibility to see some players come to Queens from the ever improving farm system like Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Reese Havens, Jordany Valdespin, Jeurys Familia and maybe even Matt Harvey.

 The Mets farm is still considered to be in the 11-15 range or so among MLB clubs. This is a vast improvement over the years where they were considered to have among the top 5 WORST farm systems in the league. There are kids to be excited about in the system. You have Zack Wheeler, whom the Mets acquired for Carlos Beltran has the stuff and makeup of a #1 starter at the big league level. You then have 5 tool talents like 1st rounder Brandon Nimmo and Cesar Puello. You also have other power arms like Harvey,Familia, Michael Fulmer, Jenrry Mejia and as a pen arm Jack Leathersich.

 The Mets are seemingly sacrificing spending on the big league team for the minor league side. Sandy Alderson predicted a payroll in the ~$100 million range for 2012, but that was including the draft/international free agency.

 It remains to be seen what the Mets draft/IFA spending cap will be under the new CBA, but I’d expect it to be similar or a little higher than the amount they spent in 2011 ($6.425 million). They select 12th and also received two picks for losing Jose Reyes which have yet to be determined exactly where they will fall due to other compensation free agents yet to sign.

 The future looks bright in Flushing. If 2012 goes by the wayside and the Mets end up with a top 5 pick in 2013 then if they execute they will add more premium talent to the system. The hope in the organization is to build the Mets into a consistent contender. This all starts with the draft, with international free agency and trades of veterans for prospects. While I think 2012 will be a lost year in terms of the MLB team contending, it will be far from a lost year in terms of the long term health and success of the organization. Not only will more prospects be added via trades/draft/international free agency but you’ll see the current batch progress. That is exciting to me.

St Lucie To Flushing Top 25 Mets Prospects

1. RHP Zack Wheeler – It’s really 1 and 1a with him and fellow righty Matt Harvey. I give Wheeler the edge due to the fact that he has 2 true plus strike out pitches in his fastball (which can touch 99 mph) and curve. He also throws a hard straight change and a slider. Both of those pitches are below average at this stage. There are some injury concerns in the delivery(inverted W, or I like to call it “M”) but he has legitimate top of the rotation starter potential.

2. RHP Matt Harvey – Harvey right now only has one plus pitch, and that’s the fastball. He has what would be rated as “average with flashes of better” with his curve and slider. He also throws a change-up which is below average right now. He doesn’t have any major injury concerns and has the upside of a plus fastball + 3 above average secondaries with above average command. That is the recipe for a quality #2 starter.

3. RHP Jeurys Familia – If there were an award for the most improved prospect it no debate would go to Familia. In 2010 Familia was a wild flamethrower struggling in High-A St Lucie. Fast forward to 2011 and with a mechanical change to make him more upright he breaks onto the scene. Coming into 2011 I thought best case scenario for Familia was a set up man type. Now I can view him as having potential as a starter in the middle of a contending rotation, or potentially as a closer. He supplements his mid 90’s fastball with an above average slider and a change-up that leaves some to be desired. Regardless of that Familia is now really on the prospect scene.

4. RHP Jenrry Mejia – Some people are dropping Mejia hard because he got Tommy John. I am not one of those. Mejia was a higher ranked prospect than Wheeler or Harvey and he got a surgery which has an extremely high success rate at this point in time. I personally view Mejia as a guy who is going to be a lights out closer rather than a starting pitcher given his repertoire and high level of effort in his delivery. Mejia mainly features a fastball, cutter, a curve and a change-up. Remember K-Rod was also groomed as a starting pitcher and was once #1 in the Angels system much like Mejia was for the Mets. As long as he is healthy Mejia has the upside of a #1/#2 starter and the downside as a very good late inning reliever.

5. OF Brandon Nimmo – Nimmo is the first 1st round pick for Paul DePodesta and the new Mets front office. Nimmo is from Wyoming where he couldn’t play high school ball, only Legion ball and showcases. Nimmo is an extremely raw player with phenomenal tools. He has a chance to be a legitimate middle of the order bat that can play a quality center field in Citi Field. This was a very high risk/high reward type pick for the Mets which is something you haven’t seen from them much in years past.

6. OF Kirk Nieuwenhuis – If Nieuwenhuis didn’t undergo shoulder surgery there’s a good chance that we would be talking about him opening up 2012 as the every-day RF for the big club to open 2012. Instead that honor goes to Lucas Duda. Nieuwenhuis is simply a baseball player. He doesn’t really have one plus tool, pretty average across the board. He can play some defense, hit some doubles, hit some homers, steal some bases and hit for a solid average. I think Kirk is a player that could give you 15 homers, 20 stolen bases and 30 doubles with solid defense. Not a bad prospect by any means, but lacks star potential.

7. RHP Michael Fulmer – The Mets took Fulmer with the supplemental first round pick they received as compensation for letting Pedro Feliciano go and not pitch for the Yankees. Fulmer was overshadowed by fellow Oklahoma prep studs Dylan Bundy (4th overall to Baltimore) and Archie Bradley (7th overall to Arizona) but Fulmer is a pretty exciting prospect himself. He features a fastball that can get up to 97 and a quality hammer curve. He needs to work on his change-up but with Fulmer and Nimmo the Mets’ first two picks present immense upside which wasn’t often something you saw done by the prior regimes.

8. 2B Reese Havens – If Havens didn’t get injured as often as he has he’d already be entrenched at second base for the Mets. I have seen Havens play 2B the last two years for Binghamton and I came away thinking he could be an average defensive second baseman at the MLB level. But the bat is what would carry him. He has a smooth short powerful stroke and puts the barrel on the ball consistently. He also has a good knowledge of the strike zone. If Havens could be healthy, which is a major if, you’re talking about a guy who’ll be among the top half as far as second basemen go in the entire league.

9. SS Wilmer Flores – I am not one of Wilmer Flores’s biggest fans. He has a great hit tool there is no debating that. There are big time questions if the power will ever come for Flores and he has a lot to be worked on as far as plate discipline, though that can be ironed out to some extent. Now defensively he has good hands and a solid arm so his best fit is likely at third base in pro ball. He literally is Bengie Molina slow which is weird given his frame. I just don’t see the star potential that others see. He is still young and can regain it with improvements but for me Flores’s stock is tumbling quick.

10. OF Cesar Puello – Puello accomplished what most have asked of him, which was to get that batting practice power into games. He did a better job of that hitting 10 home runs in the Florida State League in 2011. Negatives are he didn’t steal bags at the rate he did in 2010, and he had a putrid 1st half of the season. Puello OPS’d .642 pre-all star but OPS’d .800 post all star. He should go back to St Lucie for some more seasoning but Puello is one of few in the system with 5 tool potential. If his power keeps developing he could be a 20/20 guy who could play either center field or right field at an above average level in Citi Field.

11. SS/2B Jordany Valdespin – Valdespin also was much improved in 2011 from years past. He played in career high 134 games and OPS’d .801 with 37 SB’s. Work ethic issues are big for Valdespin. If Havens cannot be healthy you may see Valdespin at a middle infield spot in Queens at some point in 2012.

12. LHP Juan Urbina – 18 year old lefty with MLB bloodlines. Already possesses two above average pitches in his fastball and change-up. Has a consistent delivery, needs work on his breaking ball but possesses big upside.

13. RHP Akeel Morris – low H/9, high K/9, high BB/9. If he throws strikes he’s dominant. Has phenomenal stuff that just needs to be harnessed.

14. 3B Aderlin Rodriguez – biggest power bat in the system. Doesn’t do much else. Probably a 1B long term.

15. RHP Cory Mazzoni – 2011 2nd round pick with big assortment of pitches. #3 type starter upside.

16. RHP Logan Verrett – 2011 3rd round pick. Pitchability type, won’t blow you away. Don’t see him as much more than a #4 starter in the bigs.

17. OF Cory Vaughn – Toolsy outfielder who struggles with big time fastballs. Needs mechanical adjustment at the plate but could be a big league RF with some changes and improvements.

18. OF Juan Lagares – Former SS turned outfielder who has done nothing but hit in 2011, including at the Arizona Fall League. Likely addition to 40 man roster this off-season who likely won’t be a full time OF in the bigs could be a quality 4th OF.

19. LHP Darin Gorski – His stuff has trended upward while improving control led to a fantastic year for Gorski. 2.08 ERA in High-A with a 4.83 K/BB. He looks like a back end starter, but last year he was a non prospect so that’s a compliment.

20. OF Fernando Martinez – Let’s be real here, chances are Fernando Martinez will never be healthy. An absolutely phenomenal bat when he’s on the field will likely go to waste. But he is only 23 so I’ll give him one more year. Could be a trade candidate this off season.

21. OF Matt den Dekker – Best defensive outfielder in the system. If he could cut down the strike outs he might end up a solid regular in CF in the bigs. If he does not then you’re looking at a quality 4th outfielder. One of the best bets to be a MLB guy on this list.

22. LHP Jack Leathersich – 2011 5th round pick from UMass-Lowell. Lefty whom the Mets will likely use as a starter this year to build innings to prepare for a quick rise as a reliever. Out of the pen Leathersich can touch 98 with a solid slurve. He could end up a good back end reliever. Loved this pick in the 5th this year.

23. 3B Zach Lutz – Another bat who cannot stay healthy but can rake. Have been told he’s one of the top 3 best pure hitters in the Mets minors but is limited to 1B/3B, so barring a David Wright trade there isn’t much of an immediate role for Lutz.

24. RHP Greg Peavey – Doesn’t have a plus pitch, pretty average across the board. But good groundball rate and solid control could make for a back end of rotation major leaguer.

25. RHP Domingo Tapia – Tapia can throw pure gas. I have been told he’s touched 100 on the gun. His secondary pitches lack which is why he had a pedestrian 5.4 K/9. Improve on the secondaries in 2012 and Tapia will fly up this list.

Q+A With Baseball America’s Matt Eddy

On December 17th Baseball America released their top 10 Mets prospects. If for some reason you didn’t see this list, here it is:

1. Jenrry Mejia, rhp
2. Wilmer Flores, ss
3. Cesar Puello, of
4. Matt Harvey, rhp
5. Kirk Nieuwenhuis, of
6. Reese Havens, 2b
7. Lucas Duda, of/1b
8. Fernando Martinez, of
9. Aderlin Rodriguez, 3b
10. Brad Holt, rhp

I had the chance to conduct a Q+A with Baseball America writer Matt Eddy who came up with the list. Here’s what he had to say:

We spend between three and four weeks pulling together all the material that makes up our Top 30 Prospects features—the chapters in our Prospect Handbook. To be clear about how the process works: We are not trained as scouts and we do not view all players ourselves. We see some of the players here and there—at games or on the web—but we rely on our sources to accurately portray the baseball industry’s various viewpoints. There really is no such thing as consensus in the industry, except when dealing with obvious talents like Bryce Harper or Mike Trout. Some scouts like players who others do not, and vice versa.

We believe that this approach has the benefit of not biasing us with either too much (prospect fatigue) or too little (snap judgments) exposure to the players.

So what goes into our prospect rankings? We consider performance record, we talk with high-ranking officials in the organization as well as scouts and evaluators from other organizations who have no stake in the players’ developments. And our rankings change constantly—or at least mine do. As such, they should be viewed as snapshots, because once you move past the first tier of prospects, you’re kidding yourself if you think you have definitive answers.

The aim of Baseball America always has been to balance a player’s ceiling with his likelihood of reaching that ceiling. It’s more art than science.

PSL2F: What puts Cesar Puello above all the other OF’s in the system? You also said that there was debate as to whether he was even a better prospect than Wilmer Flores. What about Puello’s game makes him stand out among the other OF’s and possibly ahead of Flores?

Matt Eddy: I heard enough praise from enough different sources to feel confident in ranking Cesar Puello ahead of other outfielders in the system. His pure offensive upside is as high as any player in the system other than Wilmer Flores. It remains to be seen whether Puello can reach that ceiling, of course, and his outfield challengers—specifically Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Fernando Martinez and Cory Vaughn—are much closer to their upper limits right now, making them safer choices. But Puello runs, throws and defends better than Martinez or Vaughn, and he’s on par with Nieuwenhis if Kirk settles in a corner. But understand that we’re not projecting Puello to be a better HITTER than Flores, but we do project his game to be much more well-rounded.

PSL2F: Many think Brad Holt is far out of the top 10 prospects based on how terrible his 2010 season was. Keith Law from ESPN labeled him as “a middle reliever at best”, while you have him still maintaining #3 type potential, even if unlikely. What about Holt still keeps you as a believer?

Matt Eddy: Three sources whom I trust advocated for Brad Holt as one of the Mets’ top pitching talents. It’s really as simple as that. “I actually really like this guy even though he’s performed poorly,” one said. “He’ll be fine,” another assured me, adding, “The stuff is there, but mentally he didn’t always show up.” A third opined: “He’d have four good innings and then fall apart.”

Not one person questioned Holt’s stuff. And when he’s locating down in the zone, he throws 90-94 mph with life. He can spin a breaking ball in the high 70s and has shown increasing feel for a low-80s changeup. It’s a matter of focus, not stuff, and while that’s concerning, it doesn’t torpedo his prospect status, at least not for me.

Redemption is a prevailing theme in the movies we watch and the books we read, yet we collectively bail at the first sign of trouble for a baseball prospect. Remember when Ike Davis didn’t homer once in his first 75 games? Or take Gavin Floyd, who in 2005 ran up a 6.16 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in Triple-A at age 22. He wasn’t as wild as Holt was in 2010, but Floyd also was the fourth overall pick in the 2001 draft, so expectations were sky-high. At that point in time, would you have identified Floyd as a future front-line starter for a competitive team?

Holt had a terrible year, and there’s no getting around that. His index of self-destruction—as Bill James has dubbed it—was off the charts: 7.5 walks per nine, 2.00 WHIP, 23 wild pitches in 24 games and most damning, he got worse after a demotion to High-A! But still he showed swing-and-miss stuff (8.2 strikeouts per nine) and allowed just six home runs despite giving up a high rate of hits overall.

Other positives: The quality of Holt’s secondary stuff has improved since the 2008 season, when he blew away the New York-Penn League. Also, he has a fairly clean bill of health, having not sustained an injury to his elbow or shoulder. He has, however, dealt with an ankle injury (in ’09) and a wrist injury (in ’10) that have affected the way he delivers his pitches and caused his velocity to fluctuate.

With an offseason to clear his head, Holt ought to be looking forward to working with the Mets’ new pitching coordinator in 2011 and taking steps toward getting his career back on track.

PSL2F: I am a big Matt Harvey fan, and you rated him highly at #4, and even said he as front of the rotation type potential. Compare Harvey and #1 prospect Jenrry Mejia for me. What are the major differences between the two, and who do you think is a better bet to stick as a big league starter?

Matt Eddy: For a pitcher like Matt Harvey, who has a two-part delivery and struggles to repeat his release point, he has to prove he can throw enough strikes to profile as a major league starter. I’m not implying that he won’t, but then he has yet to throw a pro pitch. The pro workload is significantly different than the amateur one, and the seams on the baseball are not as high as the NCAA version. At the very least, we know Jenrry Mejia is a fine Double-A starter, and that he can fall back to a role as big league reliever, probably a good one

PSL2F: You label the likelihood of Wilmer Flores sticking as an outfielder as “an adventure”, but yet list him as the Mets 2014 left fielder. Do you think he’d be able to play an adequate left field based on his skill-set, or is it just because the other positions are taken? You also labeled him a potential middle of the order bat, what kind of numbers could Mets fans expect if he were to reach his promise?

Matt Eddy: It really is astonishing how slow Flores is—most grade him as a 30 on the 20-80 scouting scale. This won’t be an issue on an infield corner, where reflexes and soft hands are most important, but his lack of speed will hinder him if he must track fly balls in the outfield gaps. Expect Flores to be below-average, but playable, on an outfield corner when he’s big league ready, perhaps in 2013. But he may not have a long career as an outfielder—though Carlos Lee has made a run of it. If Flores truly reaches his ceiling, he could hit .300 with 20-25 homers at his peak

PSL2F: Can you name 4-5 prospects who just missed making the top 10, and what about their game made them fall short?

Matt Eddy: In my opinion, the best upside plays outside BA’s Top 10 are lefties Juan Urbina and Robert Carson and center fielder Darrell Ceciliani. For more on them, I encourage readers to check out our Prospect Handbook or read the chat I conducted for BA subscribers.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/prospects/rankings/organization-top-10-prospects/2011/2611073.html

Well, OK, I’ll amplify my response on Urbina, who’s just fun to write about. The 17-year-old lefty has a lot going for him—size, projection, feel for a changeup, bloodlines. But as it stands, he’s a pitcher who sits 87-88 mph with no real breaking ball. That’s not a slam-dunk starter profile. Let’s say Urbina never adds the velocity the Mets project, and that his breaking ball never develops. I’m not saying this will come to pass—just that it’s one possible outcome.

The Rays signed a high school lefty out of Arizona in 2008, paying him $300,000 more than the Mets paid Urbina, with the expectation that he’d add velocity and raise his prospect profile. After two pro seasons, 21-year-old Kyle Lobstein still sits in the 86-88 mph range with one dependable secondary pitch. For this reason, I’d like to see Urbina go out and prove himself in full-season ball, like Mejia, Flores and Puello have.

PSL2F: Who from the top 10 do you think has the biggest bust potential? And who has the biggest boom potential?

Matt Eddy: Most bust potential: No. 8 Fernando Martinez. The arthritic knee is concerning, and he hasn’t shown enough of a plan at the plate to profile as a regular.

Most boom potential: It’s gotta be No. 9 Aderlin Rodriguez. He’s got that innate ability to make contact, square up the ball and hit it with authority. As with Flores, we may be able to forgive his defensive liabilities.

PSL2F: Who is a prospect that is a sleeper that people may not be aware of that could potentially burst onto the scene in 2011?

Matt Eddy: Righthander Domingo Tapia struck out a pedestrian 5.6 per nine in the Gulf Coast League, but he’s got serious arm strength, dialing up to 96 mph.

PSL2F: Lastly, new GM Sandy Alderson labeled the farm as middle of the pack, and stressed that they will spend on the draft and international free agency. Do you agree with the sentiment of middle of the pack? And also do you think Alderson and co. will convince the Wilpon’s to spend more in the draft? Or is it just an ownership decision to adhere to slot as much as possible?

Matt Eddy: That assessment is correct. The Mets are a middle-third organization in terms of minor league talent, and probably toward the back of that middle-third, i.e. the 16-20 range. They have more depth this year than they’ve had in the recent past, thanks to their robust international efforts, but they don’t really have the type of blue-chip, can’t-miss prospect you can plan around. Playing in the NL East, which is home to Bryce Harper and Jason Heyward and Mike Stanton and Stephen Strasburg and Domonic Brown and Logan Morrison, only exacerbates the issue.

I cannot speak to the Mets intentions in the 2011 draft, but they have indicated that they intend to spend more than they have in recent drafts.

I’d like to thank Matt for answering all of my questions. Please check out his work at Baseball America, and check out Baseball America’s 2011 Prospect Handbook which was just recently sent to press.

Q+A with Mike Newman of Scouting The Sally

Over the weekend I got the chance to conduct a Q+A with Mike Newman from www.scoutingthesally.com . Being that this is a Mets site, my questions were obviously focused on players from the Savannah Sand Gnats, but check out Scouting the Sally for Mike’s great analysis of everyone in the SAL.

St Lucie To Flushing: Armando Rodriguez is likely the most talented pitcher on that staff (leads the SAL in K’s), give a rundown of him for Mets fans, and is there any other pitchers on the Gnats that Mets fans should keep an eye out for?

Mike Newman: Rodriguez features a 90-92 MPH fastball, touching 93 once in awhile.  The pitch has some arm side run at 90-91, but flattens out at higher velocities.  He sometimes gets into the habit of leaving the ball up because of his drop-and-drive mechanics which could be an issue at higher levels.  His slurve/change combination are a little fringy for his age as well.  I’ve been calling him a poor man’s Jeurys Familia since April and I’m sticking to it. As for pitchers currently on the roster, reliever Luis Rojas is currently the biggest arm on the staff.  He can work in the mid-90’s in spurts although he has little idea where it’s going.  The Savannah staff is full of small college organizational types and 90+ velocity readings on the radar gun have become a rare occurrence

St Lucie To Flushing: A guy flying up radar screens is Cesar Puello. Some talk about him even being in the mid-back half of the Mets top 10 prospects. What kind of progress has he made throughout the year, and what do you see his future as?

He has tweaked his swing some to generate significantly more lift than earlier in the season.  He’s a big kid who has left evaluators puzzled by his low slugging percentage and lack of home runs.  Beyond that, his consistent growth as a baseball player has been a promising sign.  With a reputation for being “raw and toolsy” entering the season, he has proven to be a much better baserunner and defender than originally thought.  With Den Dekker here, he’s not going to be given a chance to play center field, but I think he can handle it.

St Lucie To Flushing: Now from a guy rising, to a guy falling, Jefry Marte. He had a very poor year last year offensively, and a dreadful year defensively. What kind of progress has he made offensively and defensively in his 2nd year with the Gnats that you’ve noticed?

Mike Newman: With Marte currently on the DL, his surge was cut a little short due to his hamstring injury.  From what I could tell, Marte’s pitch selection took a turn for the better during his hot streak; especially with breaking pitches.  He has also improved his ability to fight off pitches with two-strikes which helped to lower his strikeout totals. 

On defense, his body language was much more confident prior to going down.  At times, Marte will go into a shell on defense with the hope a ball will never be hit his way.  Confidence is key for Marte as there really isn’t anything from a tools standpoint to point to and say, “he’s a bad defender due to this…”.

St Lucie To Flushing: 5th rounder this year, Matt den Dekker jumped straight from the GCL to Savannah, and in the 9 games he’s been there he’s batting over .400. He is widely known for his spectacular defensive abilities, less so for his offense. What do you make of his bat, and is there any upside for him offensively? Also is the defense really as good as advertised?

Mike Newman: Offensively, I wasn’t blown away until seeing him work a fantastic at bat versus former first rounder Zack Wheeler in the Giants organization.  Den Dekker laced a 93 MPH fastball down the first base line foul and followed it up by roping a 94 MPH fastball to left-center for a hard single.  Had he been 19, my eyes would have popped out of my head.  At 23, it’s less impressive considering his SEC pedigree, but he’s definitely more than an average 23-year old making the South Atlantic League rounds.  I’d consider him a good, but not great prospect who is likely to be challenged very aggressively next season.As for his defense, I can see solid average to a tick above, but the plus-plus defensive legend reputation he came to the organization with is a bit much.  His arm is average, range is good, but I am forced to wonder if his highlight reel catches are due more to inconsistent route running than flair for the spectacular.  Whenever I see an outfielder start late, charge a line drive too hard to make up for it, and then jump to catch it at chest level, my eyebrow raises.

St Lucie To Flushing: Lastly, thoughts on a couple Gnats that have moved on due to promotions, Wilfredo Tovar and Jimmy Fuller. What are your thoughts on them? Fuller, though older posted an ERA below 2 in Savannah, and while Tovar didn’t have overly impressive offensive numbers, his defense gets high praise.

Mike Newman: Tovar is a fantastic defensive shortstop with limited offensive upside.  His ability to hit the fastball gives him a shot, but he’s tiny and will never have power.  I threw out a “Good Cesar Izturis” comp to a scout I speak to and he felt it was just “OK” as in Tovar was less than that.  However, I was also told Tovar was arguably better than a number of back-of-the-bench utility types right now.I’m a bigger fan of Fuller than most and feel his fastball could play up out of the bullpen as a lefty specialist.  However, he leaves his best breaking pitch in the pen in a slider which I assume is a work in progress.  For a pick outside the top-20 rounds, Fuller is a find for the organization.  It really highlights the poor draft philosophy of drafting college relievers early.  

I’d like to thank Mike for taking the tiem to answer a few questions for the site. Please check out Mike’s site, Scouting The Sally .

 

A Bright Future In Flushing?

As a Mets fan, the phrase you find yourself saying year after year is "There’s always next year." Unfortunately 2010 is no different. On paper the Mets looked promising, as always, but just couldn’t put it all together on the field. I’m not saying the year is over just yet, believe me I still "Believe". But the fact is the Mets are currently 1 game under .500 with a record of 59-60, 8.5 games out of the wild card, and a whopping 11 games out of the division. If there is any hope it hangs by a thin thread.

Realistically this is a good time to start looking toward the future of our beloved Mets. After analyzing the Mets farm system, as well as talking to minor league expert and fellow writer Joe DeMayo, I have come to the conclusion that the Mets future looks bright.  From the very early stages of the Mets Minor League system there is tons of young talent. It is very possible that the Mets have the deepest system in the NL East.

Let’s start at the beginning, the GCL Mets (Rookie Ball). Last year the Mets did not own a first round pick, instead their highest pick fell in the 2nd round where they selected Steve Matz. Signability dropped him all the way to the second round as well as a few arm issues (which would later lead to surgery). But the talent is still there and many scouts believe Matz may have a very bright future in the MLB. The GCL Mets also boast a few 2010 draft picks in Erik Goeddel as well as Akeel Morris. Juan Urbina, son of former MLB pitcher Ugueth Urbina, also plays for the GCL Mets. No, he does not carry a machete. Francisco Pena, son of Yankees coach Tony Pena, is rehabbing with the GCL Mets and still loosely considered a prospect by some.

The Kingsport Mets boast prospects such as talented outfielder Javier Rodriguez and third basemen Aderlin Rodriguez. Javier Rodriguez was a 2009 draft pick of the Mets. Aderlin Rodriguez was the top International signing of 2008 by the Mets.

Now we travel to Brooklyn, where tons of talent is waiting in the wings. We have 2010 draft picks in outfielder Cory Vaughn and catcher Blake Forsythe. 2007 IFA signee Wilfredo Tovar is an infielder for the Cyclones, as well as 2009 4th round pick Darrell Ceciliani, who plays outfield. Wally Backman has done an extraordinary job managing the team and teaching these young players. Here’s to hoping he’s catching some attention of the front office of a team only miles away.

Savannah is the next stop. In Savannah you will see such names as catcher Dock Doyle, third basemen Jefry Marte, infielder/DH Robbie Shields, speedster outfielder Cesar Puello, and outfielder and 2010 Draft Pick Matt Den Dekker. Den Dekker has been a personal favorite of mine ever since I saw him make that "Willy Mays" style catch that grabbed the #1 spot on ESPN Top Plays last month. If you haven’t seen it yet it’s a must see.

The St. Lucie Mets are very pitching deep as far as prospects go. They have such pitchers as Kyle Allen, Jeurys Familia, Scott Moviel, Brant Rustich, and Brad Holt. All of which are considered to be among the Mets best prospects pitching wise. St. Lucie also has a prospect which some of you may recognize the name of in Wilmer Flores. Flores is considered by many, including myself, to be the Mets #1 prospect. He’s an infielder currently but a move to the outfield is probably in his future if he is to stay with the Mets due to his expected body growth. He has drawn many comparisons to Detroit Tigers first basemen and 2010 Triple Crown Candidate, Miguel Cabrera.

The Binghamton Mets, or as some know them as the "B-Mets" are also very pitching deep. The B-Mets have pitching prospect Jenrry Mejia, who we got a taste of as a RP in Flushing earlier this year. He’s currently stretching out to become a starting pitcher again in hopes of joining the rotation in Flushing sometime next season. The B-Mets also have pitchers such as Robert Carson, Mark Cohoon, Eddie Kunz, Roy Merritt and Eric Niesen to name a few. The B-Mets also have two of the Mets top position prospects in second basemen Reese Havens and third basemen Zach Lutz. Both are having terrific seasons, though both have had a few injury problems here and there.  Carlos Guzman, Jonathan Malo, Sean Ratliff, and Jose Coronado are also names to pay attention too.

Last but not least we have the Mets highest ranking minor league system, the Buffalo Bisons. Pitching wise the Bisons have a few names that some of you may recognize such as Dillon Gee and Tobi Stoner. Both of those guys are probably 1a and 1b as far as spot starters are concerned if the Mets are in need and call to Buffalo. A name you may not recognize however is Mike Antonini. He is a lefty starter in Buffalo who is having himself a decent year and may ever garner himself a September call-up this season. As far as position players go in Buffalo you see such names as Nick Evans, who has been in Flushing many times over the past few seasons. You have outfielder Kirk Nieuwenhuis, who many believe may have a future as a starting outfielder in the big leagues. Also there is another outfielder named Lucas Duda who has put up some serious numbers in AAA this year and is also considered to be a likely September call-up this season for the Mets.

Do the Mets have the deepest farm system in the NL East? That’s up for argument no matter who you ask. Adam Rubin of ESPN NEW YORK has said he’s talked to scouts who do indeed believe that. These scouts feel that the Mets have the deepest farm system in the division. However other scouts may say it’s the Nationals, some may say the Marlins, some the Braves, and the crazy one’s may even say Philly, even though they have traded all there prospects over the last year in deals for Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, and Roy Halladay.

One thing is clear however, the Mets have a very deep farm system no matter how you look at it. Is it the deepest? Who knows. Either way the future appears to be bright in Flushing.



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