Before I really jump full fledged back into prospect mode, I wanted to give one more piece on the big league team. My contributors will still give it coverage, but I am going to jump to where I feel most comfortable, and that is extensive coverage of the minors.

My personal opinion on Sandy Alderson’s first offseason as Mets GM is that considering the financial situation he was given, he did a heck of a job. Virtually every move he decided to do made sense in some fashion. He filled out the rotation with two arms so there can be depth at AAA. He got some bullpen competition, he got solid bench contributors and good competition at second base. Unlike his predecessor, Sandy Alderson built a complete team. Is it the best team ever? No. But it has atleast capable players at every position on the diamond.

I will do a lot of coverage of minor league and major league camp when I go to St Lucie for spring training March 5th – 12th. Here are my pre-spring training predictions as to what the 2011 Opening Day Mets will look like:

Lineup:
1. SS Jose Reyes
2. RF Angel Pagan
3. 3B David Wright
4. CF Carlos Beltran
5. LF Jason Bay
6. 1B Ike Davis
7. 2B Daniel Murphy (platoon with Brad Emaus. Should face Josh Johnson OD, so I’ll say Murphy gets the start.)
8. C Josh Thole
9. P Mike Pelfrey

If healthy this lineup should be easily a top 3 lineup in the NL. I don’t think there is a weakness in the lineup if everyone is healthy. I am really excited to see what it can do.

Bench:
C Mike Nickeas (Ronny Paulino is suspended first 8 games for PED use)
2B/3B Brad Emaus (a kind of platoon with Murphy)
MIF Chin-lung Hu (he’ll beat Justin Turner,Luis Hernandez for job)
OF/2B Scott Hairston (he’ll compete with Nick Evans and win)
OF Willie Harris (he’s your straight up 4th outfielder)

I actually really like this bench. Good defensive players all around, and some solid pop too. The bench I think could be a real strength for the 2011 Mets.

Rotation:
1. RHP Mike Pelfrey
2. LHP Jon Niese
3. RHP RA Dickey
4. LHP Chris Capuano
5. RHP Chris Young

This rotation has upside, but extreme downside. If all healthy, it could certainly be formidable. If not, then the Mets are going to tank .. fast.

Bullpen:
1. RHP Francisco Rodriguez
2. RHP Bobby Parnell
3. RHP Taylor Buchholz
4. RHP DJ Carrasco
5. LHP Tim Byrdak
6. RHP Pedro Beato
7. RHP Manny Acosta

You don’t have a pure long reliever in the pen, but DJ Carrasco and theoretically Pedro Beato(starter before 2010 in minors) should be able to give you multiple innings if you need it. You probably lose Pat Misch though to waivers.

By my estimations, this is the 25-man roster I could see the Mets going into 2011 with if the season started tomorrow -

Starting Lineup – Jose Reyes, Angel Pagan, David Wright, Carlos Beltran, Ike Davis, Jason Bay, Josh Thole, Daniel Murphy.

Bench – Ronny Paulino, Brad Emaus, Luis Castillo, Luis Hernandez, Lucas Duda.

Starting Rotation – Mike Pelfrey, Jon Niese, R.A. Dickey, Chris Capuano, Dillon Gee.

Bullpen – Oliver Perez, Manny Acosta, Taylor Buchholz, Pat Misch, D.J. Carrasco, Bobby Parnell, Francisco Rodriguez.

Of those 25 players, the ones I see most likely being replaced by opening day are Luis Castillo, Luis Hernandez, Lucas Duda, Dillon Gee, Oliver Perez, and Pat Misch. Thats 6 spots that are subject to change depending on moves made from now until opening day as well as camp battles that will unfold.

Sandy Alderson will most likely sign one more starting pitcher. My bet is still on Chris Young. So stick Dillon Gee in AAA as insurance. Also expect Alderson to sign a lefty reliever eventually. Right now he’s in wait-mode to see which one of his choices price drops the lowest. Names like Tim Byrdak, Clay Rapada, Taylor Tankersley, Ron Mahay, Joe Beimel, Will Ohman, and Dennys Reyes are all possibilities. A 4th Outfielder is also a possibility for a bargain bin signing eventually. I have extreme doubts the Mets plan to use Lucas Duda in that role to start the season.

Camp Battles are also going to have an affect on the final 25-man roster. Daniel Murphy, Brad Emaus, Luis Hernandez, Luis Castillo, and Chin-Lung Hu will all compete for the 2B job in spring training. I see only 2-3 of those guys actually making the roster. I see Lucas Duda and Fernando Martinez competing for the 4th OF job if the Mets don’t sign anyone. Terry Collins has already gone on record saying he will give F-Mart a shot at winning the job in the Spring. I see no chance in hell that Oliver Perez makes the opening day roster. He’s pitched awful over the winter and shows no sign of improving anytime soon. Pat Misch will probably find him himself in AAA as insurance or waived. However if we sign just one more SP and a Lefty Reliever, then theres a chance Misch or Perez makes the team as the 25th man in a Long Reliever position since Gee will be sent to AAA. My money would be on Misch winning that battle.

Either way the 25-man roster is far from set. Over 20% of the roster is in question going into camp. Lot’s of fun battles are likely to unfold over Spring. It’s going to be a lot of fun to watch.

According to ESPN.com’s Buster Olney the Mets are on the verge of signing RHP Chris Young. I suggested Young as a guy for the Mets to target in a post this morning. No terms were released, but if Olney’s report is true I’d imagine the numbers will come out soon. I’d be surprised if it was for anything more than 1 year $4M.

With the Mets having made no moves (OK they re-signed Mike O’Connor) as of yet, not even a minor league deal, there is some concern among the fans that I have spoken to. Fact is, we are not sure how much the Mets have to play with. Is it $5M? Is it $10M? It’s likely somewhere in between those two figures. Will the Mets make additions? Yes, they have needs to be filled.

The most important of those needs is in the starting rotation. With innings eater Javier Vazquez, even with declined velocity netting $7M from the Florida Marlins, it leaves the Mets in a weird spot. The market is set for innings eaters coming off of a bad year now. Somebody I had interest in, Kevin Millwood will probably price himself out of the Mets range now thanks to the Vazquez contract. Have to guess Millwood gets ~$5M.

At this point I’d guess trading for a good SP is probably becoming less and less a possibility due to the demand for pitching and the little amount of it in free agency. You probably don’t get a James Shields without including a top tier prospect at this point (think Jenrry Mejia or Wilmer Flores). I think at this point the Mets will have to dip into the “coming off injury, hoping for a bounce back” type of arm. There is too much interest in Brandon Webb for him to be in the Mets range, as is the case with Jeff Francis.

Right now possibly the most logical is going for Chris Young, formerly of the Padres. Young was with the Padres while Sandy Alderson was CEO, as well as while Paul DePodesta served as a VP, so he could possibly have some ties there. Coming off a shoulder surgery, he did actually throw 20 innings in 2010. His numbers were 2-0 with a 0.90 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. I’d guess his guaranteed $ this year is going to be ~$2M which falls in the Mets range.

Another big factor as to what happens with the Mets is Pedro Feliciano. If he accepts arbitration and makes ~$4M next year, well then the Mets are pretty screwed. That would take up atleast 40% of what they have to spend (if they have $10M). While Feliciano is a very good lefty specialist, arguably the best in the game, I would be extremely disappointed if he were to accept. But he does have that right.

You also have needs in the bullpen where I simply cannot see the Mets committing any kind of money to. I’d be surprised to see any reliever be given more than $1M in guaranteed money given the financial state of the team. Then you have a need at backup catcher and backup middle infielder. Ruben Tejada belongs in Triple-A, and I don’t think much of Justin Turner. Go get Jason Varitek for $1.5M and David Eckstein for $1M. You then spent $4.5M on a starter, a backup middle infielder, and a backup C. The rest of your money can go to the pen and minor league deals.

This offseason is going to be rather boring, I expected it to be this way all along. Maybe there will be a surprise small trade or two, but all in all expect little. You are likely looking at the same offensive team, except Daniel Murphy at 2B. The pen will have different names, the rotation will probably have Mike Pelfrey, RA Dickey, Jon Niese, Dillon Gee and a guy like Chris Young. And that folks is pretty much your 2011 team.