Oh the fun of spring training. On April 1 we will all look back at March 15th and laugh at the fact that it was reported that day that Luis Hernandez will be named the second baseman for the New York Mets. Not only is he, well, not good, but every single competitor is better off being the second baseman than him. Yes even Luis Castillo. No offense to the New York Post, but I simply cannot buy into this story.

Terry Collins has said all spring that second base is an offensive position now. Well if that’s the case how can you possibly even remotely consider Luis Hernandez? Not only is his limited MLB sample size awful (.245/.286/.298), but his 3,324 at bat minor league stats are pretty poor (.255/.302/.331). Hernandez is out of options, I bet if he doesn’t make the team nobody even claims him on waivers.

It is apparent Justin Turner probably will go to AAA due to having options. It’s looking more and more like Luis Castillo will be released. Daniel Murphy simply cannot in any way handle the position, and probably will be your utility lefty bat off the bench. This leaves you with one guy, Brad Emaus.

Emaus, the Rule V pick from the Blue Jays hasn’t performed much as of yet in spring training. But let’s not overreact about spring training stats. If that were the case let’s all flip out about David Wright’s .100 batting average. I think with more play Emaus will improve. And frankly given the state of the team, why not try Emaus?

If you opt not to start him, Toronto will surely take him back. Why not give the young kid with some projectability to go with solid minor league stats (career .276/.364/.426 slash line). Sure, Emaus may stink up the place to start the year. But given his offensive skill-set it is worth a gamble. He has some power, has a fantastic eye and actually has a chance to be a long-term option at the position. None of the other competitors to me have that possibility.

I think given the team that is being fielded, you have the opportunity where you can take a risk that Emaus ends up being even decent. Would you take a .270/.350 10-12 home run bat at the 7 or 8 spot? That is the kind of offensive season I could see Emaus putting up. If Collins is true to his word that second is an offensive position, then Emaus or Turner are probably the best options. Given Turner’s options, give Emaus a look. Worst case scenario you send him back and you still have Turner, Murphy, or heck even Ruben Tejada to fill in.

Before I really jump full fledged back into prospect mode, I wanted to give one more piece on the big league team. My contributors will still give it coverage, but I am going to jump to where I feel most comfortable, and that is extensive coverage of the minors.

My personal opinion on Sandy Alderson’s first offseason as Mets GM is that considering the financial situation he was given, he did a heck of a job. Virtually every move he decided to do made sense in some fashion. He filled out the rotation with two arms so there can be depth at AAA. He got some bullpen competition, he got solid bench contributors and good competition at second base. Unlike his predecessor, Sandy Alderson built a complete team. Is it the best team ever? No. But it has atleast capable players at every position on the diamond.

I will do a lot of coverage of minor league and major league camp when I go to St Lucie for spring training March 5th – 12th. Here are my pre-spring training predictions as to what the 2011 Opening Day Mets will look like:

Lineup:
1. SS Jose Reyes
2. RF Angel Pagan
3. 3B David Wright
4. CF Carlos Beltran
5. LF Jason Bay
6. 1B Ike Davis
7. 2B Daniel Murphy (platoon with Brad Emaus. Should face Josh Johnson OD, so I’ll say Murphy gets the start.)
8. C Josh Thole
9. P Mike Pelfrey

If healthy this lineup should be easily a top 3 lineup in the NL. I don’t think there is a weakness in the lineup if everyone is healthy. I am really excited to see what it can do.

Bench:
C Mike Nickeas (Ronny Paulino is suspended first 8 games for PED use)
2B/3B Brad Emaus (a kind of platoon with Murphy)
MIF Chin-lung Hu (he’ll beat Justin Turner,Luis Hernandez for job)
OF/2B Scott Hairston (he’ll compete with Nick Evans and win)
OF Willie Harris (he’s your straight up 4th outfielder)

I actually really like this bench. Good defensive players all around, and some solid pop too. The bench I think could be a real strength for the 2011 Mets.

Rotation:
1. RHP Mike Pelfrey
2. LHP Jon Niese
3. RHP RA Dickey
4. LHP Chris Capuano
5. RHP Chris Young

This rotation has upside, but extreme downside. If all healthy, it could certainly be formidable. If not, then the Mets are going to tank .. fast.

Bullpen:
1. RHP Francisco Rodriguez
2. RHP Bobby Parnell
3. RHP Taylor Buchholz
4. RHP DJ Carrasco
5. LHP Tim Byrdak
6. RHP Pedro Beato
7. RHP Manny Acosta

You don’t have a pure long reliever in the pen, but DJ Carrasco and theoretically Pedro Beato(starter before 2010 in minors) should be able to give you multiple innings if you need it. You probably lose Pat Misch though to waivers.

By my estimations, this is the 25-man roster I could see the Mets going into 2011 with if the season started tomorrow -

Starting Lineup – Jose Reyes, Angel Pagan, David Wright, Carlos Beltran, Ike Davis, Jason Bay, Josh Thole, Daniel Murphy.

Bench – Ronny Paulino, Brad Emaus, Luis Castillo, Luis Hernandez, Lucas Duda.

Starting Rotation – Mike Pelfrey, Jon Niese, R.A. Dickey, Chris Capuano, Dillon Gee.

Bullpen – Oliver Perez, Manny Acosta, Taylor Buchholz, Pat Misch, D.J. Carrasco, Bobby Parnell, Francisco Rodriguez.

Of those 25 players, the ones I see most likely being replaced by opening day are Luis Castillo, Luis Hernandez, Lucas Duda, Dillon Gee, Oliver Perez, and Pat Misch. Thats 6 spots that are subject to change depending on moves made from now until opening day as well as camp battles that will unfold.

Sandy Alderson will most likely sign one more starting pitcher. My bet is still on Chris Young. So stick Dillon Gee in AAA as insurance. Also expect Alderson to sign a lefty reliever eventually. Right now he’s in wait-mode to see which one of his choices price drops the lowest. Names like Tim Byrdak, Clay Rapada, Taylor Tankersley, Ron Mahay, Joe Beimel, Will Ohman, and Dennys Reyes are all possibilities. A 4th Outfielder is also a possibility for a bargain bin signing eventually. I have extreme doubts the Mets plan to use Lucas Duda in that role to start the season.

Camp Battles are also going to have an affect on the final 25-man roster. Daniel Murphy, Brad Emaus, Luis Hernandez, Luis Castillo, and Chin-Lung Hu will all compete for the 2B job in spring training. I see only 2-3 of those guys actually making the roster. I see Lucas Duda and Fernando Martinez competing for the 4th OF job if the Mets don’t sign anyone. Terry Collins has already gone on record saying he will give F-Mart a shot at winning the job in the Spring. I see no chance in hell that Oliver Perez makes the opening day roster. He’s pitched awful over the winter and shows no sign of improving anytime soon. Pat Misch will probably find him himself in AAA as insurance or waived. However if we sign just one more SP and a Lefty Reliever, then theres a chance Misch or Perez makes the team as the 25th man in a Long Reliever position since Gee will be sent to AAA. My money would be on Misch winning that battle.

Either way the 25-man roster is far from set. Over 20% of the roster is in question going into camp. Lot’s of fun battles are likely to unfold over Spring. It’s going to be a lot of fun to watch.

Dear every Mets blogger out there,

How nice is it not to have to write about the Manger situation anymore? Talk about the most dreadful 2-3 week blogging period. Time to move on to bigger problems, like oh say the players who actually play on the field.

Terry Collins was officially named the manager of the Mets tuesday morning. It’s over, done with, and you know what, I’m happy. I like the Collins hiring.

One thing I overheard in his interview yesterday was that he expects to go into Spring Training with a Daniel Murphy/Luis Castillo 2B tandem. I took 2 things away from that statement. One, I pray to god Luis Castillo is not anywhere near the Mets roster come March. Two, the team thinks highly of the second base/Murphy idea us fans have been wanting to try for 2 years.

I personally think/hope/pray that Sandy Alderson moves Castillo off the Mets roster as soon as possible. And I have faith he will. I expect Alderson to move him. Collins could be very well be making the Castillo statement since Castillo is technically still a Met. Alderson and Mets management both know they can’t waste roster spots with the likes of Castillo anymore.

I expect him and Ollie to be moved at some point this off-season. Ollie may have to be cut more than likely. Castillo however has a slight chance to be traded. 2 teams to keep an eye on for a Castillo trade are the Cubs & Rockies.

I would guess the Mets have 5-10 million dollars they can spend this offseason. This means they have to budget their money smartly. Part 1 is praying Feliciano doesn’t accept arbitration. Sandy Alderson has always worked for small market teams. Working with a small budget is something he’s very used to. My guess is they spend 3-4 million on a Starting Pitcher, 2-3 million dollars on a reliever or 2, and 1-2 million on a backup catcher.

Theres your offseason Mets fans. StLucieToFlushing Writer Joe DeMayo threw the name Chris Young out to me yesterday. I’m talking about the former Padres pitcher not the Arizona CF. Sandy Alderson has obvious Padres connections and a possible Young deal could be worked out. Expect 1 year 3-4 mil plus incentives. Young’s trying to come back and prove he’s healthy and where better to do it then in Citi Field.

If you were paying attention you can see I left out signing a 2B. That because I truthfully have a ton of faith in Daniel Murphy. His bat is more than adequate to be a 2B and hit 7th/8th for the Mets in 2011. Also according to an interview ESPNNewYork’s Adam Rubin did with a scout in the DR, Murphy was “serviceable.” He made all the plays but one. The scout went on to say he needs to work on his arm action a bit and tighten up to avoid throwing errors. Not that he’s made any yet but it’s something he needs work on.

Also Murphy is said to be working hard at learning the position so that encouraging. I’m all for a Murphy/2B experiment. I have been for awhile. You have to remember that way back when before the god awful LF experience and before his more than satisfying 1B campaign, Murphy is a 3B at heart. He has some range and he can handle going to his left and his right. The scout did say he’s better going to his left which is expected since most 3B go to their left better than their right. He’s a work in progress and a work I’m intrigued about. I like the idea of Daniel Murphy as my 2011 2B.

We are almost through another woeful season for the Mets, likely to end the year below .500, and possibly another top 10 pick. So now you have to start asking the question, what can they do to fix it so 2011 isn’t another wash? It first starts with a new GM, and a new manager. I don’t know who the new GM will be (I just pray it’s an outside candidate), and I’d guess the manager is probably Bobby Valentine or Wally Backman. But while those changes are completely necessary, you also have to realize the on-field product needs work too.

One thing I feel the team is lacking is a pure slugger. Sure David Wright, Ike Davis, Jason Bay, Carlos Beltran(if still here) could hit some home runs, but they aren’t that guy that every time he comes up I feel a home run coming. One player that could be available via trade this offseason that does fit that criteria is Dan Uggla. With the team highly likely to part ways with Luis Castillo one way or another, the 2nd base job will be open. Sure you could go no bat all defense in Ruben Tejada, or suspect defense and I guess OK bat in Daniel Murphy, and they should be able to atleast replicate Castillo’s putrid 2010.

But why not significantly upgrade? Sure Uggla is not a good defender by any means, but I am sick and tired of sacrificing offense for defense. The Seattle Mariners tried that this year, and look where they are. Uggla is a bonafide slugger at a position of need, and he’s someone that I don’t believe Citi Field would really diminish his home run totals much at all as nearly every home run I see him hit is an absolute bomb, whether at Citi Field or anywhere else.

Uggla’s OPS+ this year is at 128, and has a 116 mark for his career. 100 is considered to be an average player, thus Uggla is a pretty decently above average offensive player, not a star, but a strong hitter. For fun, Luis Castillo’s OPS+ this year is a mere 67, and his career is 92. Tejada’s OPS+ this year is 44, and Murphy’s in 2009 was 95 making him even a below average player. But one thing Uggla has the ability to do that none of the other candidates have is the ability to hit the home run on any given at bat against any given pitcher. That ability is something that cannot be taught, he can always be taught to be a better defender. With the right coaching you can always improve footwork to get a better first step and make you atleast passable at the position.

I just think it’s time for the team to just forget about the defense at one position and just go with a real pure slugger like Uggla. Now you can ask, well why would Florida trade him then? Well, it looks as if they are at a standstill on extension talks with Uggla, and he has one more year of arbitration before free agency, where you can expect him to make close to $10M via arbitration. If you offer Florida the right package, I’d bet they’d be willing to make a trade, and they have not been afraid to deal good players within division, especially to the Mets (see Paul Lo Duca, Carlos Delgado). Could a package like outfielder Kirk Nieuwenhuis or Fernando Martinez + a replacement 2B in Tejada entice them? I’d certainly be willing to explore that.