The Mets have a very mediocre farm system. This is common knowledge around baseball. At best they are middle of the pack. However there are plenty of bright spots around the minors.

Mets 2010 first round draft pick Matt Harvey is 4-0. He has a 0.00 era over his first 22.0 innings! That’s incredible even for High-A St. Lucie. And to top it all off he has 27 strikeouts over this time frame. The one concern I have is the 8 bb’s he’s issued. Harvey’s control has been his biggest question mark since we drafted him last year. However 8 walks in 22 innings is not awful. It’s just a bit concerning since he will ultimately find himself in AA before the end of the season. The talent there is a lot better and he will have to rely on his control much more. Regardless his future looks bright as can be. Baseball America’s own Jim Callis was quoted last week as saying he (Harvey) is the best pitcher he’s seen in the minors thus far this season.

Jenrry Mejia is the other top prospect who may find himself in the rotation come 2013. Most likely he will actually be there by 2012 if all goes well this season in AAA. However long term I like many other people see him in the bullpen as the future closer. Right now that looks like a worst case scenario though. Mejia is being prepared as a starter and rightfully so. He has shown he can pitch deep into games and maintain velocity. The bullpen isn’t that bad of a scenario though. Jonathan Papelbon was once a highly touted SP. He ended up being a very successful closer. Neftali Feliz was also a SP, and still may be one again one day. However right now he’s enjoying tremendous success in the Rangers pen as their closer. The future looks very bright for Mejia right now.

So what will the 2013 rotation look like?

Johan Santana will be in the final year of his contract that season. If he’s healthy you can go ahead and pencil him in the rotation.

Jon Niese will most likely still be a part of the team by then as well. He looks like a sure bet to be a Met for a decent period of time.

Mike Pelfrey is a question mark. Many experts expect the Mets to consider trading Pelfrey as soon as this year. His future with the Mets is in doubt, however right now it’s still a possibility he’s with the team in 2013.

R.A. Dickey has a 2 year contract (2011-2012) and may very well be gone by 2013. I’m crossing him off the list as of now.

Dillon Gee is a darkhorse. He appears to be a legitimate future 4 or 5 in a Major League rotation. He can give you innings on a consistent basis and wouldn’t be a terrible option as the 5th starter in 2013.

Obviously the Mets may also consider signing players in Free Agency or making trades for SP’s. However right now the this is my 2013 rotation –

Johan Santana
Jon Niese
Mike Pelfrey/Dillon Gee
Matt Harvey
Jenrry Mejia

Recently I did a Q&A with Mets pitcher Dillon Gee. Dillon was great in answering everything I inquired about. This is the transcript from the interview.

PSL2F – This spring you will have your first chance to crack a Major League rotation. How does that feel? Is this a dream come true for you?

DG – It feels awesome to know I’m in the mix. All I want is a chance to compete and win a spot on this team. It is definitely a dream come true!!

PSL2F – Last season you made your Major League debut for the Mets. Did you grow up rooting for any team in particular?

DG – Well I wasn’t necessarily a die hard for any team but I grew up about an hour and a half from the Rangers so that was the team we watched and rooted for the most.

PSL2F – Did you always want to be a Starting Pitcher? Or were there other positions you played growing up?

DG – I’ve always loved to pitch. I played other positions growing up like second and short and some outfield but my choice was always to be on the mound.

PSL2F – Any current/past players you idolized growing up? If so did you fashion your game after them?

DG – I was always a huge Nolan Ryan fan. I grew up watching his videos and tried to teach myself to throw like him but obviously I wasnt blessed with his abilities. I really like his all business- hard nosed mentality on the mound and I tried to learn from that!

PSL2F – Most scouts tend to think your change-up is your best pitch. Would you agree with that assessment? In your opinion what is your 2nd best pitch?

DG – I would have to agree. I’ve worked very hard and still do at perfecting the changeup. Fastball command is the most important but then I would rank my changeup then my curveball.

PSL2F – Some scouts refer to your change-up as a “Vulcan Change”. How is that different to a regular change-up?

DG – I’m not really sure what a Vulcan change is. I hold it like a normal circle change. So I really can’t tell you what the difference is.

PSL2F – Watching your starts last season, the one thing I noticed more then anything was your impeccable control. You weren’t afraid to go after hitters up in the zone with a fastball if need be. Was there anyone in the Mets minor league system that helped you develop your precise pitching style? (Teammate/Coach)

DG – Really every pitching coach I’ve ever had has taught me something to get me where I am today. I just try to always pick the brains of coaches and fellow players and implement things I think will help me. I’ll go up,down,in,out wherever to get someone out. I learned early on that’s the pitcher I am and that is how I will be successful.

PSL2F – Before your call-up last season you led the Buffalo Bisons in strikeouts. Looking over your numbers from the past you were never a prototypical “strikeout pitcher”. Did something “click” last season?

DG – I can’t put a finger on what exactly to attribute the strikeouts to. In my mind I feel like I pitched the same as I always have. Since implementing the curveball in 2008 I think it has gotten better so maybe that had something to do with it.

I want to thank Dillon Gee for taking the time to answer these questions. Best of luck this season.

I outlined the Bisons lineup yesterday here. Today I am going to focus on the pitching. As I mentioned yesterday, it is nearly impossible to project a full bullpen considering how many men could be on a Triple-A roster. So what I will provide you is how I think the rotation will shake out, as well as some possible bullpen arms for the Bisons whom look extremely strong on both sides of the ball in my projections.

1. RHP Jenrry Mejia – The gem of the Mets system will not be wasted this year as a bullpen arm in MLB. I am overly excited to see how he does starting in AAA. I would be surprised if he didn’t make his way into the Mets rotation at some point in 2011.
2. RHP Dillon Gee – The real competition to Chris Young/Chris Capuano in the rotation. I expect him to lose out on this battle, and if an injury occurs and a starter needs to be summoned I’d think he’s the first guy to get a call.
3. RHP Josh Stinson – Unlikely to be a starter long term, but I like Stinson as a strong middle reliever. He will pitch out of the rotation here and we’ll see how he does after a pretty strong campaign between AA and AAA in 2010.
4. RHP Boof Bonser – One of the first minor league deals by the Alderson regime. Bonser probably competes for a long man spot in spring training and loses, thus getting him into the AAA rotation. Could possibly be summoned if needed in either the pen or the rotation.
5. RHP Tobi Stoner – Stoner is coming off an injury, and should be ready for Opening Day. He struggled last year with some bone chips in his elbow, but healthy he should atleast be able to provide some decent numbers for the Bisons.

Some possible bullpen arms:
RHP Manny Alvarez
RHP Jose De La Torre
LHP Mike O’Connor
LHP Taylor Tankersley
RHP Eddie Kunz
RHP Blaine Boyer
RHP Ryota Igarashi

Tomorrow we go to Binghamton and see what lineup Wally Backman will field Opening Day.

By my estimations, this is the 25-man roster I could see the Mets going into 2011 with if the season started tomorrow -

Starting Lineup – Jose Reyes, Angel Pagan, David Wright, Carlos Beltran, Ike Davis, Jason Bay, Josh Thole, Daniel Murphy.

Bench – Ronny Paulino, Brad Emaus, Luis Castillo, Luis Hernandez, Lucas Duda.

Starting Rotation – Mike Pelfrey, Jon Niese, R.A. Dickey, Chris Capuano, Dillon Gee.

Bullpen – Oliver Perez, Manny Acosta, Taylor Buchholz, Pat Misch, D.J. Carrasco, Bobby Parnell, Francisco Rodriguez.

Of those 25 players, the ones I see most likely being replaced by opening day are Luis Castillo, Luis Hernandez, Lucas Duda, Dillon Gee, Oliver Perez, and Pat Misch. Thats 6 spots that are subject to change depending on moves made from now until opening day as well as camp battles that will unfold.

Sandy Alderson will most likely sign one more starting pitcher. My bet is still on Chris Young. So stick Dillon Gee in AAA as insurance. Also expect Alderson to sign a lefty reliever eventually. Right now he’s in wait-mode to see which one of his choices price drops the lowest. Names like Tim Byrdak, Clay Rapada, Taylor Tankersley, Ron Mahay, Joe Beimel, Will Ohman, and Dennys Reyes are all possibilities. A 4th Outfielder is also a possibility for a bargain bin signing eventually. I have extreme doubts the Mets plan to use Lucas Duda in that role to start the season.

Camp Battles are also going to have an affect on the final 25-man roster. Daniel Murphy, Brad Emaus, Luis Hernandez, Luis Castillo, and Chin-Lung Hu will all compete for the 2B job in spring training. I see only 2-3 of those guys actually making the roster. I see Lucas Duda and Fernando Martinez competing for the 4th OF job if the Mets don’t sign anyone. Terry Collins has already gone on record saying he will give F-Mart a shot at winning the job in the Spring. I see no chance in hell that Oliver Perez makes the opening day roster. He’s pitched awful over the winter and shows no sign of improving anytime soon. Pat Misch will probably find him himself in AAA as insurance or waived. However if we sign just one more SP and a Lefty Reliever, then theres a chance Misch or Perez makes the team as the 25th man in a Long Reliever position since Gee will be sent to AAA. My money would be on Misch winning that battle.

Either way the 25-man roster is far from set. Over 20% of the roster is in question going into camp. Lot’s of fun battles are likely to unfold over Spring. It’s going to be a lot of fun to watch.

Over the past few days i’ve heard more and more that Paul Maholm is fully on the trading block. The pirates may seek a young SS who plays good defense to fill out their infield, such as Ruben Tejada. They had been trying for Jason Barlett (who was dealt to the Padres) and J.J. Hardy (who was dealt to the Orioles) in past weeks. I’m sure the Pirates could always engage the Cardinals about Brendan Ryan. However they may like Tejada as a younger piece to an already extremely young infield.

Paul Maholm would give the Mets balance in their rotation. As of now the only lefty scheduled to be in the rotation is Niese. Other options Pelfrey, Dickey, Gee, Mejia are all righty. Even signing Chris Young would give the Mets 4 righties and 1 lefty in the rotation. Maholm went 9-15, 5.10 era, 1.60 k/bb for Pittsburgh in 2010. I feel he could play an important role in our rotation as a 4 or 5 starter.

I’d suppose Ruben Tejada and Jeurys Familia could be a good package for Maholm. Possibly adding a low level guy to the package. I’m not saying Maholm would be a #2 starter, but I strongly believe he could be a solid 4th starter in Citi Field with our offense. I think this would be a smart acquisition for Sandy and Co. Tejada is not going to be finding a job on the Mets anytime soon. And Familia’s potential remains to be seen. This move would make a heck of alot of sense for the Mets right now.

With the Mets having made no moves (OK they re-signed Mike O’Connor) as of yet, not even a minor league deal, there is some concern among the fans that I have spoken to. Fact is, we are not sure how much the Mets have to play with. Is it $5M? Is it $10M? It’s likely somewhere in between those two figures. Will the Mets make additions? Yes, they have needs to be filled.

The most important of those needs is in the starting rotation. With innings eater Javier Vazquez, even with declined velocity netting $7M from the Florida Marlins, it leaves the Mets in a weird spot. The market is set for innings eaters coming off of a bad year now. Somebody I had interest in, Kevin Millwood will probably price himself out of the Mets range now thanks to the Vazquez contract. Have to guess Millwood gets ~$5M.

At this point I’d guess trading for a good SP is probably becoming less and less a possibility due to the demand for pitching and the little amount of it in free agency. You probably don’t get a James Shields without including a top tier prospect at this point (think Jenrry Mejia or Wilmer Flores). I think at this point the Mets will have to dip into the “coming off injury, hoping for a bounce back” type of arm. There is too much interest in Brandon Webb for him to be in the Mets range, as is the case with Jeff Francis.

Right now possibly the most logical is going for Chris Young, formerly of the Padres. Young was with the Padres while Sandy Alderson was CEO, as well as while Paul DePodesta served as a VP, so he could possibly have some ties there. Coming off a shoulder surgery, he did actually throw 20 innings in 2010. His numbers were 2-0 with a 0.90 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. I’d guess his guaranteed $ this year is going to be ~$2M which falls in the Mets range.

Another big factor as to what happens with the Mets is Pedro Feliciano. If he accepts arbitration and makes ~$4M next year, well then the Mets are pretty screwed. That would take up atleast 40% of what they have to spend (if they have $10M). While Feliciano is a very good lefty specialist, arguably the best in the game, I would be extremely disappointed if he were to accept. But he does have that right.

You also have needs in the bullpen where I simply cannot see the Mets committing any kind of money to. I’d be surprised to see any reliever be given more than $1M in guaranteed money given the financial state of the team. Then you have a need at backup catcher and backup middle infielder. Ruben Tejada belongs in Triple-A, and I don’t think much of Justin Turner. Go get Jason Varitek for $1.5M and David Eckstein for $1M. You then spent $4.5M on a starter, a backup middle infielder, and a backup C. The rest of your money can go to the pen and minor league deals.

This offseason is going to be rather boring, I expected it to be this way all along. Maybe there will be a surprise small trade or two, but all in all expect little. You are likely looking at the same offensive team, except Daniel Murphy at 2B. The pen will have different names, the rotation will probably have Mike Pelfrey, RA Dickey, Jon Niese, Dillon Gee and a guy like Chris Young. And that folks is pretty much your 2011 team.