St. Lucie to Flushing

Mets Acquire 2 PTBNL From MIL…Who May They Be?

As everyone now has probably heard, the Mets agreed to trade closer Francisco Rodriguez to the Milwaukee Brewers late last night. The trade will relieve the Mets from an impending option that even a team in good financial standing wouldn’t want to incur. The Mets acquired 2 PTBNL from the Brewers that have been confirmed to be coming from the farm system. Supposedly, the Brewers gave the Mets a list of 5 players to choose from. The Mets brass will now have until sometime in September to scout the prospects and determine who they like.

The problem is the Brewers have an almost non-existent farm system. After completing deals in the offseason that saw them add Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum to their staff, the farm system is slim picking’s. Regardless, let’s look at some of the names who may be on the Mets list.

#1 – SP – Cody Scarpetta

Scarpetta was named the Brewers #2 prospect in 2011 by Baseball America. This of course by default due to the Greinke/Marcum deals. Scarpetta is currently in Double-A where he has posted a 4.40 ERA, 5-4 WL, 79 K, 43 BB, 79 H in 86 IP. These stats tell me he isn’t afraid to go after hitters and pitches to contact. However he also appears to have control problems issuing exactly 1 walk every 2 innings.

#2 – SP – Wily Peralta

Peralta was named the Brewers #3 prospect in 2011 by BA. Like Scarpetta, Peralta also finds himself in Double-A Huntsville. He’s pitched to a 3.95 ERA, 6-6 WL, 86 K, 36 BB, and 86 H in 86.2 IP. He’s averaging ALMOST a K per inning, while also average ALMOST a hit per game. He appears to be a contact pitcher, with stuff good enough to strike you out. The walks are also a bit higher then i’d prefer, however his K/BB ratio is better then that of Scarpetta.

#3 – SP – Tyler Thornburg

Thornburg may be my favorite option. Thornburg was rated the #6 overall Brewers prospect by BA in 2011. He is currently pitching in the Single-A Florida State League. I see Thornburg as more of a RP longterm due to his small frame (5-11″ 185). Also he has posted high strikeout numbers (76 K in 68.2 IP) in Single-A Wisconsin, before his promotion to FSL. Since his promotion he has posted a 2.81 ERA, 20 K, 7 BB, 10 H in 16 IP. Needs to work on his control a bit, which could be why he’s still in Single-A at almost the age of 23 (September).

#4 – SP – Jimmy Nelson

Nelson, the #8 rated Brewers prospect by BA, is currently pitching for Single-A Wisconsin. He’s not much to write home about. Walks to many, strikes out too few. Though he’s just 22, his numbers are not impressive in Single-A. The one thing he has working for him is his size however. 6-6″ 245 frame. However like the Mets saw with Eddie Kunz, bull-dog pitchers with thick frames don’t always work out.

Quick Thoughts on the Allan Dykstra for Eddie Kunz Trade

Today the Mets traded their 2008 1st round (supplemental) pick, RHP Eddie Kunz to the San Diego Padres for fellow 2008 1st rounder (23rd overall) Allan Dykstra. On the forefront this more or less looks like a trade of first round bust for first round bust.

But if you delve deeper you have to say the Mets won in this minor trade. When I saw Kunz last year I saw a mid 80′s fastball that touched 88 and a flat slider, and a big guy. Out of the draft Kunz was throwing mid 90′s with a sharp slider. All he has done since he got beat up in his cup of coffee is pitch poorly and gain weight. A scout told me, “no way he gets back to the bigs unless he makes drastic changes.”

Then you have Dykstra who is a slow footed first baseman who doesn’t really have a position long term. He does though provide some power and the ability to draw some walks. Last year as a 23 year old in High-A he posted a slash line of .241/.372/.438/.810 with 42 extra base hits (16 of which were home runs). He possesses a career .388 on base percentage in the minors. I read a best case comparison for Dykstra as Dan Johnson.

There’s a chance neither of them will make the majors and this deal will end up not mattering for anyone. But the Mets traded a skill-less arm for a kid who can hit for some pop and draw some walks. Expect Dykstra to play first for Binghamton to open the 2011 season.

Minor League Projections: AAA Buffalo pitching

I outlined the Bisons lineup yesterday here. Today I am going to focus on the pitching. As I mentioned yesterday, it is nearly impossible to project a full bullpen considering how many men could be on a Triple-A roster. So what I will provide you is how I think the rotation will shake out, as well as some possible bullpen arms for the Bisons whom look extremely strong on both sides of the ball in my projections.

1. RHP Jenrry Mejia – The gem of the Mets system will not be wasted this year as a bullpen arm in MLB. I am overly excited to see how he does starting in AAA. I would be surprised if he didn’t make his way into the Mets rotation at some point in 2011.
2. RHP Dillon Gee – The real competition to Chris Young/Chris Capuano in the rotation. I expect him to lose out on this battle, and if an injury occurs and a starter needs to be summoned I’d think he’s the first guy to get a call.
3. RHP Josh Stinson – Unlikely to be a starter long term, but I like Stinson as a strong middle reliever. He will pitch out of the rotation here and we’ll see how he does after a pretty strong campaign between AA and AAA in 2010.
4. RHP Boof Bonser – One of the first minor league deals by the Alderson regime. Bonser probably competes for a long man spot in spring training and loses, thus getting him into the AAA rotation. Could possibly be summoned if needed in either the pen or the rotation.
5. RHP Tobi Stoner – Stoner is coming off an injury, and should be ready for Opening Day. He struggled last year with some bone chips in his elbow, but healthy he should atleast be able to provide some decent numbers for the Bisons.

Some possible bullpen arms:
RHP Manny Alvarez
RHP Jose De La Torre
LHP Mike O’Connor
LHP Taylor Tankersley
RHP Eddie Kunz
RHP Blaine Boyer
RHP Ryota Igarashi

Tomorrow we go to Binghamton and see what lineup Wally Backman will field Opening Day.

A Bright Future In Flushing?

As a Mets fan, the phrase you find yourself saying year after year is "There’s always next year." Unfortunately 2010 is no different. On paper the Mets looked promising, as always, but just couldn’t put it all together on the field. I’m not saying the year is over just yet, believe me I still "Believe". But the fact is the Mets are currently 1 game under .500 with a record of 59-60, 8.5 games out of the wild card, and a whopping 11 games out of the division. If there is any hope it hangs by a thin thread.

Realistically this is a good time to start looking toward the future of our beloved Mets. After analyzing the Mets farm system, as well as talking to minor league expert and fellow writer Joe DeMayo, I have come to the conclusion that the Mets future looks bright.  From the very early stages of the Mets Minor League system there is tons of young talent. It is very possible that the Mets have the deepest system in the NL East.

Let’s start at the beginning, the GCL Mets (Rookie Ball). Last year the Mets did not own a first round pick, instead their highest pick fell in the 2nd round where they selected Steve Matz. Signability dropped him all the way to the second round as well as a few arm issues (which would later lead to surgery). But the talent is still there and many scouts believe Matz may have a very bright future in the MLB. The GCL Mets also boast a few 2010 draft picks in Erik Goeddel as well as Akeel Morris. Juan Urbina, son of former MLB pitcher Ugueth Urbina, also plays for the GCL Mets. No, he does not carry a machete. Francisco Pena, son of Yankees coach Tony Pena, is rehabbing with the GCL Mets and still loosely considered a prospect by some.

The Kingsport Mets boast prospects such as talented outfielder Javier Rodriguez and third basemen Aderlin Rodriguez. Javier Rodriguez was a 2009 draft pick of the Mets. Aderlin Rodriguez was the top International signing of 2008 by the Mets.

Now we travel to Brooklyn, where tons of talent is waiting in the wings. We have 2010 draft picks in outfielder Cory Vaughn and catcher Blake Forsythe. 2007 IFA signee Wilfredo Tovar is an infielder for the Cyclones, as well as 2009 4th round pick Darrell Ceciliani, who plays outfield. Wally Backman has done an extraordinary job managing the team and teaching these young players. Here’s to hoping he’s catching some attention of the front office of a team only miles away.

Savannah is the next stop. In Savannah you will see such names as catcher Dock Doyle, third basemen Jefry Marte, infielder/DH Robbie Shields, speedster outfielder Cesar Puello, and outfielder and 2010 Draft Pick Matt Den Dekker. Den Dekker has been a personal favorite of mine ever since I saw him make that "Willy Mays" style catch that grabbed the #1 spot on ESPN Top Plays last month. If you haven’t seen it yet it’s a must see.

The St. Lucie Mets are very pitching deep as far as prospects go. They have such pitchers as Kyle Allen, Jeurys Familia, Scott Moviel, Brant Rustich, and Brad Holt. All of which are considered to be among the Mets best prospects pitching wise. St. Lucie also has a prospect which some of you may recognize the name of in Wilmer Flores. Flores is considered by many, including myself, to be the Mets #1 prospect. He’s an infielder currently but a move to the outfield is probably in his future if he is to stay with the Mets due to his expected body growth. He has drawn many comparisons to Detroit Tigers first basemen and 2010 Triple Crown Candidate, Miguel Cabrera.

The Binghamton Mets, or as some know them as the "B-Mets" are also very pitching deep. The B-Mets have pitching prospect Jenrry Mejia, who we got a taste of as a RP in Flushing earlier this year. He’s currently stretching out to become a starting pitcher again in hopes of joining the rotation in Flushing sometime next season. The B-Mets also have pitchers such as Robert Carson, Mark Cohoon, Eddie Kunz, Roy Merritt and Eric Niesen to name a few. The B-Mets also have two of the Mets top position prospects in second basemen Reese Havens and third basemen Zach Lutz. Both are having terrific seasons, though both have had a few injury problems here and there.  Carlos Guzman, Jonathan Malo, Sean Ratliff, and Jose Coronado are also names to pay attention too.

Last but not least we have the Mets highest ranking minor league system, the Buffalo Bisons. Pitching wise the Bisons have a few names that some of you may recognize such as Dillon Gee and Tobi Stoner. Both of those guys are probably 1a and 1b as far as spot starters are concerned if the Mets are in need and call to Buffalo. A name you may not recognize however is Mike Antonini. He is a lefty starter in Buffalo who is having himself a decent year and may ever garner himself a September call-up this season. As far as position players go in Buffalo you see such names as Nick Evans, who has been in Flushing many times over the past few seasons. You have outfielder Kirk Nieuwenhuis, who many believe may have a future as a starting outfielder in the big leagues. Also there is another outfielder named Lucas Duda who has put up some serious numbers in AAA this year and is also considered to be a likely September call-up this season for the Mets.

Do the Mets have the deepest farm system in the NL East? That’s up for argument no matter who you ask. Adam Rubin of ESPN NEW YORK has said he’s talked to scouts who do indeed believe that. These scouts feel that the Mets have the deepest farm system in the division. However other scouts may say it’s the Nationals, some may say the Marlins, some the Braves, and the crazy one’s may even say Philly, even though they have traded all there prospects over the last year in deals for Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, and Roy Halladay.

One thing is clear however, the Mets have a very deep farm system no matter how you look at it. Is it the deepest? Who knows. Either way the future appears to be bright in Flushing.



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