St. Lucie to Flushing

Mets Should Trade Angel Pagan for Gavin Floyd

With word out there that the White Sox are shopping pitchers Gavin Floyd and John Danks it spurred an idea in my head that the Mets should absolutely be in on one of these arms. Danks is expected to make $6-$7M this year through arbitration then he is a free agent while Floyd will make $7M this year and there is a team option for 2013 worth $9.5M.

My original thought was the Mets should trade a prospect package like say Wilmer Flores and Darin Gorski for Floyd. Then I remembered the White Sox have the worst farm system in baseball and don’t seem to have a ton of interest in improving it. One of my Twitter followers @daturk22 then presented an idea that got me to write this piece.

What if the Mets trade Angel Pagan for Floyd? Ok I figure since the contract of Floyd is nice it’ll take a prospect with him. I figure I would throw in either Fernando Martinez or Gorski. The White Sox are always about acquiring big league pieces that can help, especially on the offensive side of the ball. You give them Pagan and they can trade Carlos Quentin or play him in left field and move Alex Rios to right field. They also can obtain a pitcher like Gorski who can be a back end type starter or a guy like Martinez who possesses great upside but with a ton of injuries. Theoretically if they deal Quentin they can try out an OF consisting of Martinez-Pagan-Rios to open 2012. Not the flashiest, but in that division don’t you think the White Sox need to take some risks? If SOMEHOW Martinez stayed healthy (maybe alternate DH/LF with him and Dunn?) they’d be getting some good right now offense for a #3/#4 type starter.

Now how does this work for the Mets? Well first off they are not keen on the idea of bringing back Angel Pagan at ~$5M because they consider him to be more of a quality 4th outfielder who can fill in than someone who is a full time player though it is not believed that is the general consensus throughout baseball. The Mets also could use some starting pitching help this year with the questions around Johan Santana. If you acquire a Floyd you can put Dillon Gee in Triple-A or the bullpen if Santana is healthy. But if Santana isn’t good to go then you have Gee for the rotation and you added a more quality pitcher rather than a #5 type starter like Jason Marquis.

How will the Mets afford the $7M that Floyd is making? Well if you believe Jon Heyman of SI that the Mets were likely to tender Pagan at $5M then you can look at it as a net $2M addition. Even the Mets should be able to swing that. I think that is the kind of trade that can benefit both the Mets and the White Sox. Is it a kind of deal that Chicago would without question do? No probably not. But I bet it would be up there as one of the better offers they’ll get. I think the Mets need to be creative this year and not just try to plug the holes with free agents. Sandy Alderson needs to make some trades, and pursuing a trade along these lines sounds like a no brainer to me.

St Lucie To Flushing Top 25 Mets Prospects

1. RHP Zack Wheeler – It’s really 1 and 1a with him and fellow righty Matt Harvey. I give Wheeler the edge due to the fact that he has 2 true plus strike out pitches in his fastball (which can touch 99 mph) and curve. He also throws a hard straight change and a slider. Both of those pitches are below average at this stage. There are some injury concerns in the delivery(inverted W, or I like to call it “M”) but he has legitimate top of the rotation starter potential.

2. RHP Matt Harvey – Harvey right now only has one plus pitch, and that’s the fastball. He has what would be rated as “average with flashes of better” with his curve and slider. He also throws a change-up which is below average right now. He doesn’t have any major injury concerns and has the upside of a plus fastball + 3 above average secondaries with above average command. That is the recipe for a quality #2 starter.

3. RHP Jeurys Familia – If there were an award for the most improved prospect it no debate would go to Familia. In 2010 Familia was a wild flamethrower struggling in High-A St Lucie. Fast forward to 2011 and with a mechanical change to make him more upright he breaks onto the scene. Coming into 2011 I thought best case scenario for Familia was a set up man type. Now I can view him as having potential as a starter in the middle of a contending rotation, or potentially as a closer. He supplements his mid 90’s fastball with an above average slider and a change-up that leaves some to be desired. Regardless of that Familia is now really on the prospect scene.

4. RHP Jenrry Mejia – Some people are dropping Mejia hard because he got Tommy John. I am not one of those. Mejia was a higher ranked prospect than Wheeler or Harvey and he got a surgery which has an extremely high success rate at this point in time. I personally view Mejia as a guy who is going to be a lights out closer rather than a starting pitcher given his repertoire and high level of effort in his delivery. Mejia mainly features a fastball, cutter, a curve and a change-up. Remember K-Rod was also groomed as a starting pitcher and was once #1 in the Angels system much like Mejia was for the Mets. As long as he is healthy Mejia has the upside of a #1/#2 starter and the downside as a very good late inning reliever.

5. OF Brandon Nimmo – Nimmo is the first 1st round pick for Paul DePodesta and the new Mets front office. Nimmo is from Wyoming where he couldn’t play high school ball, only Legion ball and showcases. Nimmo is an extremely raw player with phenomenal tools. He has a chance to be a legitimate middle of the order bat that can play a quality center field in Citi Field. This was a very high risk/high reward type pick for the Mets which is something you haven’t seen from them much in years past.

6. OF Kirk Nieuwenhuis – If Nieuwenhuis didn’t undergo shoulder surgery there’s a good chance that we would be talking about him opening up 2012 as the every-day RF for the big club to open 2012. Instead that honor goes to Lucas Duda. Nieuwenhuis is simply a baseball player. He doesn’t really have one plus tool, pretty average across the board. He can play some defense, hit some doubles, hit some homers, steal some bases and hit for a solid average. I think Kirk is a player that could give you 15 homers, 20 stolen bases and 30 doubles with solid defense. Not a bad prospect by any means, but lacks star potential.

7. RHP Michael Fulmer – The Mets took Fulmer with the supplemental first round pick they received as compensation for letting Pedro Feliciano go and not pitch for the Yankees. Fulmer was overshadowed by fellow Oklahoma prep studs Dylan Bundy (4th overall to Baltimore) and Archie Bradley (7th overall to Arizona) but Fulmer is a pretty exciting prospect himself. He features a fastball that can get up to 97 and a quality hammer curve. He needs to work on his change-up but with Fulmer and Nimmo the Mets’ first two picks present immense upside which wasn’t often something you saw done by the prior regimes.

8. 2B Reese Havens – If Havens didn’t get injured as often as he has he’d already be entrenched at second base for the Mets. I have seen Havens play 2B the last two years for Binghamton and I came away thinking he could be an average defensive second baseman at the MLB level. But the bat is what would carry him. He has a smooth short powerful stroke and puts the barrel on the ball consistently. He also has a good knowledge of the strike zone. If Havens could be healthy, which is a major if, you’re talking about a guy who’ll be among the top half as far as second basemen go in the entire league.

9. SS Wilmer Flores – I am not one of Wilmer Flores’s biggest fans. He has a great hit tool there is no debating that. There are big time questions if the power will ever come for Flores and he has a lot to be worked on as far as plate discipline, though that can be ironed out to some extent. Now defensively he has good hands and a solid arm so his best fit is likely at third base in pro ball. He literally is Bengie Molina slow which is weird given his frame. I just don’t see the star potential that others see. He is still young and can regain it with improvements but for me Flores’s stock is tumbling quick.

10. OF Cesar Puello – Puello accomplished what most have asked of him, which was to get that batting practice power into games. He did a better job of that hitting 10 home runs in the Florida State League in 2011. Negatives are he didn’t steal bags at the rate he did in 2010, and he had a putrid 1st half of the season. Puello OPS’d .642 pre-all star but OPS’d .800 post all star. He should go back to St Lucie for some more seasoning but Puello is one of few in the system with 5 tool potential. If his power keeps developing he could be a 20/20 guy who could play either center field or right field at an above average level in Citi Field.

11. SS/2B Jordany Valdespin – Valdespin also was much improved in 2011 from years past. He played in career high 134 games and OPS’d .801 with 37 SB’s. Work ethic issues are big for Valdespin. If Havens cannot be healthy you may see Valdespin at a middle infield spot in Queens at some point in 2012.

12. LHP Juan Urbina – 18 year old lefty with MLB bloodlines. Already possesses two above average pitches in his fastball and change-up. Has a consistent delivery, needs work on his breaking ball but possesses big upside.

13. RHP Akeel Morris – low H/9, high K/9, high BB/9. If he throws strikes he’s dominant. Has phenomenal stuff that just needs to be harnessed.

14. 3B Aderlin Rodriguez – biggest power bat in the system. Doesn’t do much else. Probably a 1B long term.

15. RHP Cory Mazzoni – 2011 2nd round pick with big assortment of pitches. #3 type starter upside.

16. RHP Logan Verrett – 2011 3rd round pick. Pitchability type, won’t blow you away. Don’t see him as much more than a #4 starter in the bigs.

17. OF Cory Vaughn – Toolsy outfielder who struggles with big time fastballs. Needs mechanical adjustment at the plate but could be a big league RF with some changes and improvements.

18. OF Juan Lagares – Former SS turned outfielder who has done nothing but hit in 2011, including at the Arizona Fall League. Likely addition to 40 man roster this off-season who likely won’t be a full time OF in the bigs could be a quality 4th OF.

19. LHP Darin Gorski – His stuff has trended upward while improving control led to a fantastic year for Gorski. 2.08 ERA in High-A with a 4.83 K/BB. He looks like a back end starter, but last year he was a non prospect so that’s a compliment.

20. OF Fernando Martinez – Let’s be real here, chances are Fernando Martinez will never be healthy. An absolutely phenomenal bat when he’s on the field will likely go to waste. But he is only 23 so I’ll give him one more year. Could be a trade candidate this off season.

21. OF Matt den Dekker – Best defensive outfielder in the system. If he could cut down the strike outs he might end up a solid regular in CF in the bigs. If he does not then you’re looking at a quality 4th outfielder. One of the best bets to be a MLB guy on this list.

22. LHP Jack Leathersich – 2011 5th round pick from UMass-Lowell. Lefty whom the Mets will likely use as a starter this year to build innings to prepare for a quick rise as a reliever. Out of the pen Leathersich can touch 98 with a solid slurve. He could end up a good back end reliever. Loved this pick in the 5th this year.

23. 3B Zach Lutz – Another bat who cannot stay healthy but can rake. Have been told he’s one of the top 3 best pure hitters in the Mets minors but is limited to 1B/3B, so barring a David Wright trade there isn’t much of an immediate role for Lutz.

24. RHP Greg Peavey – Doesn’t have a plus pitch, pretty average across the board. But good groundball rate and solid control could make for a back end of rotation major leaguer.

25. RHP Domingo Tapia – Tapia can throw pure gas. I have been told he’s touched 100 on the gun. His secondary pitches lack which is why he had a pedestrian 5.4 K/9. Improve on the secondaries in 2012 and Tapia will fly up this list.

Minor League Projections: AAA Buffalo Lineup

Starting today I am going to work on a daily piece where I am going to give my early projections on how I foresee the Mets arranging their minor league lineups and rotations. I will also throw in some bullpen arms that I think will be in each affiliates bullpen, but with so many bullpen spots in the minors it’s near impossible to predict exactly how it will fully shake out. I am going to only cover the full season ball teams, and I will start in Triple-A Buffalo which looks like it will be an extremely strong offensive team with some good pitching too. Here is my prediction for Buffalo’s Opening Day lineup:

1. Ruben Tejada – SS – Terry Collins said Tejada will be playing exclusively shortstop in AAA.
2. Kirk Nieuwenhuis – CF – Had rough go in first stint in AAA, but expect him to hit well and he very well could get a call up by mid-season if injuries occur.
3. Fernando Martinez – LF – Will he ever be healthy? If so you can expect big numbers from him here, and a likely call-up at some point during 2011.
4. Lucas Duda – 1B – Will also play some corner outfield to improve versatility, but I expect him to mow through the International League again.
5. Zach Lutz – 3B – Was once told that Lutz is one of, if not the best pure hitter in the organization but is never healthy enough to show it. Can really only play 1B/3B so he may be blocked in this organization.
6. Justin Turner – 2B – Like him and Russ Adams to play a lot here, and Turner will also DH some I’m sure. He has dominated throughout his minor league career, if there’s an injury up the middle there is a chance he could get a call.
7. Josh Satin – DH – I think they will really work on his versatility this year, and he will DH too because he can hit. I think he will be a productive utility guy very soon.
8. Jason Pridie – RF – Will try to prove he’s over the injuries in 2010 and regain that very strong 4th OF form that people projected of him.
9. Raul Chavez – C – Mike Nickeas will take this job once Ronny Paulino’s PED suspension is up. They simply need someone good to catch and handle the few young arms that will be in Buffalo’s rotation.

This lineup has a chance to lead the IL in almost every offensive category. It is an extremely strong AAA lineup top to bottom, and has guys that if injuries occur I am comfortable with them stepping up to the big league team and being able to contribute there.

Tomorrow: Buffalo’s Starting Rotation. Special thanks to PSL2F contributor Tejesh Patel, also of Mets Prospect Hub for his input on these projections.

25-Man Roster: Bargain Signings & Camp Battles

By my estimations, this is the 25-man roster I could see the Mets going into 2011 with if the season started tomorrow -

Starting Lineup – Jose Reyes, Angel Pagan, David Wright, Carlos Beltran, Ike Davis, Jason Bay, Josh Thole, Daniel Murphy.

Bench – Ronny Paulino, Brad Emaus, Luis Castillo, Luis Hernandez, Lucas Duda.

Starting Rotation – Mike Pelfrey, Jon Niese, R.A. Dickey, Chris Capuano, Dillon Gee.

Bullpen – Oliver Perez, Manny Acosta, Taylor Buchholz, Pat Misch, D.J. Carrasco, Bobby Parnell, Francisco Rodriguez.

Of those 25 players, the ones I see most likely being replaced by opening day are Luis Castillo, Luis Hernandez, Lucas Duda, Dillon Gee, Oliver Perez, and Pat Misch. Thats 6 spots that are subject to change depending on moves made from now until opening day as well as camp battles that will unfold.

Sandy Alderson will most likely sign one more starting pitcher. My bet is still on Chris Young. So stick Dillon Gee in AAA as insurance. Also expect Alderson to sign a lefty reliever eventually. Right now he’s in wait-mode to see which one of his choices price drops the lowest. Names like Tim Byrdak, Clay Rapada, Taylor Tankersley, Ron Mahay, Joe Beimel, Will Ohman, and Dennys Reyes are all possibilities. A 4th Outfielder is also a possibility for a bargain bin signing eventually. I have extreme doubts the Mets plan to use Lucas Duda in that role to start the season.

Camp Battles are also going to have an affect on the final 25-man roster. Daniel Murphy, Brad Emaus, Luis Hernandez, Luis Castillo, and Chin-Lung Hu will all compete for the 2B job in spring training. I see only 2-3 of those guys actually making the roster. I see Lucas Duda and Fernando Martinez competing for the 4th OF job if the Mets don’t sign anyone. Terry Collins has already gone on record saying he will give F-Mart a shot at winning the job in the Spring. I see no chance in hell that Oliver Perez makes the opening day roster. He’s pitched awful over the winter and shows no sign of improving anytime soon. Pat Misch will probably find him himself in AAA as insurance or waived. However if we sign just one more SP and a Lefty Reliever, then theres a chance Misch or Perez makes the team as the 25th man in a Long Reliever position since Gee will be sent to AAA. My money would be on Misch winning that battle.

Either way the 25-man roster is far from set. Over 20% of the roster is in question going into camp. Lot’s of fun battles are likely to unfold over Spring. It’s going to be a lot of fun to watch.

Q+A With Baseball America’s Matt Eddy

On December 17th Baseball America released their top 10 Mets prospects. If for some reason you didn’t see this list, here it is:

1. Jenrry Mejia, rhp
2. Wilmer Flores, ss
3. Cesar Puello, of
4. Matt Harvey, rhp
5. Kirk Nieuwenhuis, of
6. Reese Havens, 2b
7. Lucas Duda, of/1b
8. Fernando Martinez, of
9. Aderlin Rodriguez, 3b
10. Brad Holt, rhp

I had the chance to conduct a Q+A with Baseball America writer Matt Eddy who came up with the list. Here’s what he had to say:

We spend between three and four weeks pulling together all the material that makes up our Top 30 Prospects features—the chapters in our Prospect Handbook. To be clear about how the process works: We are not trained as scouts and we do not view all players ourselves. We see some of the players here and there—at games or on the web—but we rely on our sources to accurately portray the baseball industry’s various viewpoints. There really is no such thing as consensus in the industry, except when dealing with obvious talents like Bryce Harper or Mike Trout. Some scouts like players who others do not, and vice versa.

We believe that this approach has the benefit of not biasing us with either too much (prospect fatigue) or too little (snap judgments) exposure to the players.

So what goes into our prospect rankings? We consider performance record, we talk with high-ranking officials in the organization as well as scouts and evaluators from other organizations who have no stake in the players’ developments. And our rankings change constantly—or at least mine do. As such, they should be viewed as snapshots, because once you move past the first tier of prospects, you’re kidding yourself if you think you have definitive answers.

The aim of Baseball America always has been to balance a player’s ceiling with his likelihood of reaching that ceiling. It’s more art than science.

PSL2F: What puts Cesar Puello above all the other OF’s in the system? You also said that there was debate as to whether he was even a better prospect than Wilmer Flores. What about Puello’s game makes him stand out among the other OF’s and possibly ahead of Flores?

Matt Eddy: I heard enough praise from enough different sources to feel confident in ranking Cesar Puello ahead of other outfielders in the system. His pure offensive upside is as high as any player in the system other than Wilmer Flores. It remains to be seen whether Puello can reach that ceiling, of course, and his outfield challengers—specifically Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Fernando Martinez and Cory Vaughn—are much closer to their upper limits right now, making them safer choices. But Puello runs, throws and defends better than Martinez or Vaughn, and he’s on par with Nieuwenhis if Kirk settles in a corner. But understand that we’re not projecting Puello to be a better HITTER than Flores, but we do project his game to be much more well-rounded.

PSL2F: Many think Brad Holt is far out of the top 10 prospects based on how terrible his 2010 season was. Keith Law from ESPN labeled him as “a middle reliever at best”, while you have him still maintaining #3 type potential, even if unlikely. What about Holt still keeps you as a believer?

Matt Eddy: Three sources whom I trust advocated for Brad Holt as one of the Mets’ top pitching talents. It’s really as simple as that. “I actually really like this guy even though he’s performed poorly,” one said. “He’ll be fine,” another assured me, adding, “The stuff is there, but mentally he didn’t always show up.” A third opined: “He’d have four good innings and then fall apart.”

Not one person questioned Holt’s stuff. And when he’s locating down in the zone, he throws 90-94 mph with life. He can spin a breaking ball in the high 70s and has shown increasing feel for a low-80s changeup. It’s a matter of focus, not stuff, and while that’s concerning, it doesn’t torpedo his prospect status, at least not for me.

Redemption is a prevailing theme in the movies we watch and the books we read, yet we collectively bail at the first sign of trouble for a baseball prospect. Remember when Ike Davis didn’t homer once in his first 75 games? Or take Gavin Floyd, who in 2005 ran up a 6.16 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in Triple-A at age 22. He wasn’t as wild as Holt was in 2010, but Floyd also was the fourth overall pick in the 2001 draft, so expectations were sky-high. At that point in time, would you have identified Floyd as a future front-line starter for a competitive team?

Holt had a terrible year, and there’s no getting around that. His index of self-destruction—as Bill James has dubbed it—was off the charts: 7.5 walks per nine, 2.00 WHIP, 23 wild pitches in 24 games and most damning, he got worse after a demotion to High-A! But still he showed swing-and-miss stuff (8.2 strikeouts per nine) and allowed just six home runs despite giving up a high rate of hits overall.

Other positives: The quality of Holt’s secondary stuff has improved since the 2008 season, when he blew away the New York-Penn League. Also, he has a fairly clean bill of health, having not sustained an injury to his elbow or shoulder. He has, however, dealt with an ankle injury (in ’09) and a wrist injury (in ’10) that have affected the way he delivers his pitches and caused his velocity to fluctuate.

With an offseason to clear his head, Holt ought to be looking forward to working with the Mets’ new pitching coordinator in 2011 and taking steps toward getting his career back on track.

PSL2F: I am a big Matt Harvey fan, and you rated him highly at #4, and even said he as front of the rotation type potential. Compare Harvey and #1 prospect Jenrry Mejia for me. What are the major differences between the two, and who do you think is a better bet to stick as a big league starter?

Matt Eddy: For a pitcher like Matt Harvey, who has a two-part delivery and struggles to repeat his release point, he has to prove he can throw enough strikes to profile as a major league starter. I’m not implying that he won’t, but then he has yet to throw a pro pitch. The pro workload is significantly different than the amateur one, and the seams on the baseball are not as high as the NCAA version. At the very least, we know Jenrry Mejia is a fine Double-A starter, and that he can fall back to a role as big league reliever, probably a good one

PSL2F: You label the likelihood of Wilmer Flores sticking as an outfielder as “an adventure”, but yet list him as the Mets 2014 left fielder. Do you think he’d be able to play an adequate left field based on his skill-set, or is it just because the other positions are taken? You also labeled him a potential middle of the order bat, what kind of numbers could Mets fans expect if he were to reach his promise?

Matt Eddy: It really is astonishing how slow Flores is—most grade him as a 30 on the 20-80 scouting scale. This won’t be an issue on an infield corner, where reflexes and soft hands are most important, but his lack of speed will hinder him if he must track fly balls in the outfield gaps. Expect Flores to be below-average, but playable, on an outfield corner when he’s big league ready, perhaps in 2013. But he may not have a long career as an outfielder—though Carlos Lee has made a run of it. If Flores truly reaches his ceiling, he could hit .300 with 20-25 homers at his peak

PSL2F: Can you name 4-5 prospects who just missed making the top 10, and what about their game made them fall short?

Matt Eddy: In my opinion, the best upside plays outside BA’s Top 10 are lefties Juan Urbina and Robert Carson and center fielder Darrell Ceciliani. For more on them, I encourage readers to check out our Prospect Handbook or read the chat I conducted for BA subscribers.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/prospects/rankings/organization-top-10-prospects/2011/2611073.html

Well, OK, I’ll amplify my response on Urbina, who’s just fun to write about. The 17-year-old lefty has a lot going for him—size, projection, feel for a changeup, bloodlines. But as it stands, he’s a pitcher who sits 87-88 mph with no real breaking ball. That’s not a slam-dunk starter profile. Let’s say Urbina never adds the velocity the Mets project, and that his breaking ball never develops. I’m not saying this will come to pass—just that it’s one possible outcome.

The Rays signed a high school lefty out of Arizona in 2008, paying him $300,000 more than the Mets paid Urbina, with the expectation that he’d add velocity and raise his prospect profile. After two pro seasons, 21-year-old Kyle Lobstein still sits in the 86-88 mph range with one dependable secondary pitch. For this reason, I’d like to see Urbina go out and prove himself in full-season ball, like Mejia, Flores and Puello have.

PSL2F: Who from the top 10 do you think has the biggest bust potential? And who has the biggest boom potential?

Matt Eddy: Most bust potential: No. 8 Fernando Martinez. The arthritic knee is concerning, and he hasn’t shown enough of a plan at the plate to profile as a regular.

Most boom potential: It’s gotta be No. 9 Aderlin Rodriguez. He’s got that innate ability to make contact, square up the ball and hit it with authority. As with Flores, we may be able to forgive his defensive liabilities.

PSL2F: Who is a prospect that is a sleeper that people may not be aware of that could potentially burst onto the scene in 2011?

Matt Eddy: Righthander Domingo Tapia struck out a pedestrian 5.6 per nine in the Gulf Coast League, but he’s got serious arm strength, dialing up to 96 mph.

PSL2F: Lastly, new GM Sandy Alderson labeled the farm as middle of the pack, and stressed that they will spend on the draft and international free agency. Do you agree with the sentiment of middle of the pack? And also do you think Alderson and co. will convince the Wilpon’s to spend more in the draft? Or is it just an ownership decision to adhere to slot as much as possible?

Matt Eddy: That assessment is correct. The Mets are a middle-third organization in terms of minor league talent, and probably toward the back of that middle-third, i.e. the 16-20 range. They have more depth this year than they’ve had in the recent past, thanks to their robust international efforts, but they don’t really have the type of blue-chip, can’t-miss prospect you can plan around. Playing in the NL East, which is home to Bryce Harper and Jason Heyward and Mike Stanton and Stephen Strasburg and Domonic Brown and Logan Morrison, only exacerbates the issue.

I cannot speak to the Mets intentions in the 2011 draft, but they have indicated that they intend to spend more than they have in recent drafts.

I’d like to thank Matt for answering all of my questions. Please check out his work at Baseball America, and check out Baseball America’s 2011 Prospect Handbook which was just recently sent to press.

Running Down Potential September Call-Ups

The fun time of the year is almost here..September call ups! It’s the time of the year where teams can expand their MLB roster to 40 (only including players on their 40 man roster) for the month of September. It’s a great time for a team like the Mets, who are seemingly out of it to get a look at some young kids, and see if they have anything to offer for 2011. Their 40 man roster right now is at 39 per mets.com. You can 60 day DL John Maine and even Jason Bay if you think he’s done for the year. You could also Designate any of Omir Santos,Tobi Stoner,Jason Pridie. Here are some players that I think merit consideration for a call up that are not on the 40 man roster, and why.

1B/OF Lucas Duda
Stats between AA/AAA: .309 AVG .402 OBP .590 SLG .922 OPS 38 2B 23 HR 87 RBI 55/75 BB/K

Duda would require a 40 man spot, but the guy has more than deserved the call-up. He is also a guy whom after 2010 you would have to add to the 40 man roster anyway to protect him from the Rule V draft. He is someone that no doubt can be a part of the 2011 bench, probably taking the role Chris Carter holds. He is someone who I think could be a very useful piece, and I think he will get the call up in September. I really look forward to seeing him get some playing time with Jason Bay out.

RHP Dillon Gee
AAA Stats: 13-7 4.87 ERA 151.2 IP 161 H 22 HR 36 BB 150 K .272 BAA

Despite the love Gee seems to be getting by the fanbase, outside of the strikeouts he really did not have an impressive year. He’s like Duda in the sense they both need to be protected after this year or be eligible for the Rule V draft. Gee is nothing to write home about, likely a #5 starter type in the bigs, but it’s good to keep those kind of guys around. I doubt he’d get any starts in September, but he can come up and give you some innings out of the pen.

OF Kirk Nieuwenhuis
Combined AA/AAA Stats: .279 AVG .331 OBP .490 SLG .821 OPS 40 2B 17 HR 73 RBI 13 SB 37/112 BB/K

Many consider Nieuwenhuis the Mets top outfield prospect at this point. His extremely poor start in AAA has put a bit of a damper on his season stats as he was performing well in AA. To put it in perspective, his OPS in AA was 186 points higher than it’s been in the 16 AAA games he’s been in. I’d be rather surprised if he gets a September call-up, but given his level of being a prospect in the organization and the fact that he performed very well at AA could somehow sneak him in there for September. I’d guess no and he’ll be a non-roster invite to spring training and possibly make his debut mid 2011.

RHP Chad Cordero
Stats with Buffalo: 1-1 2.61 ERA 10.1 IP 10 H 0 HR 5 BB 7 K .263 BAA

When I spoke to Mike Harrington at the Buffalo News about Cordero, he told me Cordero finally looks free and easy, and pointed out how it sometimes can take 2-3 years to get back from a major shoulder injury. Cordero was once an All Star closer for the Nationals and is 28 years old now. He could be the kind of guy that you give a look at in September and give him a chance to pitch some middle relief and see if you could potentially have someone you can bring in to camp next year to compete for a roster spot. I won’t feel bad if he is eating some of Elmer Dessens’s innings.

LHP Mike O’Connor
Stats for Buffalo: 4-1 2.43 ERA 63 IP 58 H 5 HR 15 BB 63 K .245 BAA

Probably the least likely of the guys mentioned to get the call, but he’s had a very good year for Buffalo after signing with the Mets as a minor league free agent. He’s a lefty with reverse splits(.263 BAA vs LHH and .232 vs RHH) but he could be an interesting lefty to come in and mop up a bit. I doubt they would waste a 40 man roster spot on him, but he atleast should get some recognition for the work he’s done in Triple-A this year, so I will give him the recognition here.

I won’t speak on them, but odds are you will see most healthy members of the 40 man up for September. That means Sean Green,Jenrry Mejia (to start I hope!),Raul Valdes,Nick Evans,Justin Turner,and Fernando Martinez when healthy should all get the call to add some roster depth.



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