As everyone now has probably heard, the Mets agreed to trade closer Francisco Rodriguez to the Milwaukee Brewers late last night. The trade will relieve the Mets from an impending option that even a team in good financial standing wouldn’t want to incur. The Mets acquired 2 PTBNL from the Brewers that have been confirmed to be coming from the farm system. Supposedly, the Brewers gave the Mets a list of 5 players to choose from. The Mets brass will now have until sometime in September to scout the prospects and determine who they like.

The problem is the Brewers have an almost non-existent farm system. After completing deals in the offseason that saw them add Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum to their staff, the farm system is slim picking’s. Regardless, let’s look at some of the names who may be on the Mets list.

#1 – SP – Cody Scarpetta

Scarpetta was named the Brewers #2 prospect in 2011 by Baseball America. This of course by default due to the Greinke/Marcum deals. Scarpetta is currently in Double-A where he has posted a 4.40 ERA, 5-4 WL, 79 K, 43 BB, 79 H in 86 IP. These stats tell me he isn’t afraid to go after hitters and pitches to contact. However he also appears to have control problems issuing exactly 1 walk every 2 innings.

#2 – SP – Wily Peralta

Peralta was named the Brewers #3 prospect in 2011 by BA. Like Scarpetta, Peralta also finds himself in Double-A Huntsville. He’s pitched to a 3.95 ERA, 6-6 WL, 86 K, 36 BB, and 86 H in 86.2 IP. He’s averaging ALMOST a K per inning, while also average ALMOST a hit per game. He appears to be a contact pitcher, with stuff good enough to strike you out. The walks are also a bit higher then i’d prefer, however his K/BB ratio is better then that of Scarpetta.

#3 – SP – Tyler Thornburg

Thornburg may be my favorite option. Thornburg was rated the #6 overall Brewers prospect by BA in 2011. He is currently pitching in the Single-A Florida State League. I see Thornburg as more of a RP longterm due to his small frame (5-11″ 185). Also he has posted high strikeout numbers (76 K in 68.2 IP) in Single-A Wisconsin, before his promotion to FSL. Since his promotion he has posted a 2.81 ERA, 20 K, 7 BB, 10 H in 16 IP. Needs to work on his control a bit, which could be why he’s still in Single-A at almost the age of 23 (September).

#4 – SP – Jimmy Nelson

Nelson, the #8 rated Brewers prospect by BA, is currently pitching for Single-A Wisconsin. He’s not much to write home about. Walks to many, strikes out too few. Though he’s just 22, his numbers are not impressive in Single-A. The one thing he has working for him is his size however. 6-6″ 245 frame. However like the Mets saw with Eddie Kunz, bull-dog pitchers with thick frames don’t always work out.

I know I have been saying for weeks that I would be trading K-Rod regardless of where the Mets are in the standings come July 31st. I feel like I may have changed my stance, and no it has absolutely nothing to do with the late success of the Mets. For me this is strategic planning that I am sure has entered the mind of Sandy Alderson: Let July 31st come and go without trading closer Francisco Rodriguez.

I am sure I will receive many tweets asking me “why would you keep him?”, “you can’t possibly keep him and pay him $17.5M next year!” and possibly some that’ll read “you are an idiot”. The general consensus among Mets fans is trade K-Rod for whatever you could get to avoid that $17.5M option for 2012. In theory you probably are right. But what if it doesn’t?

If the Mets trade off Carlos Beltran and Jason Isringhausen or others it’s extremely likely the major league team will be negatively affected talent wise. This should theoretically make the team worse, which would lead to less save chances, which would lead to fewer games finished. What if you ride the K-Rod train into August and if you feel that he could obtain the option you eat the money and take whatever you can get like fans want to do now?

Then on the opposite side of the coin, if the Mets start to flounder after selling off some pieces and it looks likely that he would not reach his games finished number then you can keep him for the entirety of the 2011 season and then decline the option, offer arbitration and net two draft picks from whomever signs him. This is obviously a huge risk, possibly even one that is outside of the willingness of Alderson.

It could backfire in his face hard. K-Rod could look like he isn’t going to get the games finished and then in September the Mets play well and he racks up the games finished. Regardless of what any fan wants, the Mets simply cannot limit K-Rod’s usage, especially in save opportunities or the union will be right on them. Or you could have trouble moving him in August without eating a ton of salary because he looks more likely to achieve the games finished if the Mets play better than expected.

I think the thing about Sandy Alderson is he will not go by the book. He is not going to always do what “sounds right”. I think he’s one of few GM’s who would consider this gutsy move. So I proclaim this to you Mr Alderson, keep Francisco Rodriguez through the deadline. Let’s see if there is a chance that you could end up not having the option vest and net two draft picks to strengthen the already improving farm system.

As was reported by multiple news outlets yesterday, Mets #1 prospect RHP Jenrry Mejia has a torn MCL in his elbow and will require Tommy John surgery. While that stinks given how Mejia has performed thus far in Triple-A it comes as no surprise to me. I had hope that Mejia would make it as a starter, but given his max effort delivery I figured it was a matter of time until his arm goes “pop” as a starter.

The way Mejia pitches to me just simply is not the makeup of a major league starting pitcher. He isn’t made to be throwing 100+ pitches every 5th day. This is why I think when Mejia returns from Tommy John in ~1 year it’s time to start grooming him as the long term closer for the New York Mets. Before you get mad that I am converting the team’s #1 prospect to a closer, remember that your own Francisco Rodriguez was once the #1 prospect in the Angels system and he’s done quite well for himself.

As a closer Mejia can come in throwing bullets and then fool hitters with his improved change and curve for one inning and wrap up the game. You not only will be getting what I feel would be a top tier closer, but you would be getting that without paying top tier closer money (see K-Rod). When Mejia is back and healthy I would let him start his rehab in St Lucie where it is warm, then when the weather warms up I would thrust him into the closer role at Triple-A. Let him work there for a little bit then give him the call and have him set up for hopefully a 1 year veteran stopgap closer. You then can plan to have the would-be 23 year old open 2013 closing out games that hopefully Matt Harvey starts.

I love Mejia as much as the next guy, but I think putting him in the closer gig for the long term is not only beneficial for the organization, but beneficial for the health of Mejia. A lessened workload will do wonders for him, and then you have a high quality closer making around league minimum. One thing to remember is that a lot of closers in the league were starters in the minor leagues. Examples include Mariano Rivera, Francisco Rodriguez, Jonathon Papelbon, Neftali Feliz, Jonathon Broxton, Brad Lidge and Carlos Marmol. A lot of these closers are elite, and it’s about time the Mets develop a closer of their own. If there is any bright side to the Tommy John surgery for Mejia, it’s that if he has a full recovery as expected you could have yourself your closer for a long time.

Before I really jump full fledged back into prospect mode, I wanted to give one more piece on the big league team. My contributors will still give it coverage, but I am going to jump to where I feel most comfortable, and that is extensive coverage of the minors.

My personal opinion on Sandy Alderson’s first offseason as Mets GM is that considering the financial situation he was given, he did a heck of a job. Virtually every move he decided to do made sense in some fashion. He filled out the rotation with two arms so there can be depth at AAA. He got some bullpen competition, he got solid bench contributors and good competition at second base. Unlike his predecessor, Sandy Alderson built a complete team. Is it the best team ever? No. But it has atleast capable players at every position on the diamond.

I will do a lot of coverage of minor league and major league camp when I go to St Lucie for spring training March 5th – 12th. Here are my pre-spring training predictions as to what the 2011 Opening Day Mets will look like:

Lineup:
1. SS Jose Reyes
2. RF Angel Pagan
3. 3B David Wright
4. CF Carlos Beltran
5. LF Jason Bay
6. 1B Ike Davis
7. 2B Daniel Murphy (platoon with Brad Emaus. Should face Josh Johnson OD, so I’ll say Murphy gets the start.)
8. C Josh Thole
9. P Mike Pelfrey

If healthy this lineup should be easily a top 3 lineup in the NL. I don’t think there is a weakness in the lineup if everyone is healthy. I am really excited to see what it can do.

Bench:
C Mike Nickeas (Ronny Paulino is suspended first 8 games for PED use)
2B/3B Brad Emaus (a kind of platoon with Murphy)
MIF Chin-lung Hu (he’ll beat Justin Turner,Luis Hernandez for job)
OF/2B Scott Hairston (he’ll compete with Nick Evans and win)
OF Willie Harris (he’s your straight up 4th outfielder)

I actually really like this bench. Good defensive players all around, and some solid pop too. The bench I think could be a real strength for the 2011 Mets.

Rotation:
1. RHP Mike Pelfrey
2. LHP Jon Niese
3. RHP RA Dickey
4. LHP Chris Capuano
5. RHP Chris Young

This rotation has upside, but extreme downside. If all healthy, it could certainly be formidable. If not, then the Mets are going to tank .. fast.

Bullpen:
1. RHP Francisco Rodriguez
2. RHP Bobby Parnell
3. RHP Taylor Buchholz
4. RHP DJ Carrasco
5. LHP Tim Byrdak
6. RHP Pedro Beato
7. RHP Manny Acosta

You don’t have a pure long reliever in the pen, but DJ Carrasco and theoretically Pedro Beato(starter before 2010 in minors) should be able to give you multiple innings if you need it. You probably lose Pat Misch though to waivers.

By my estimations, this is the 25-man roster I could see the Mets going into 2011 with if the season started tomorrow -

Starting Lineup – Jose Reyes, Angel Pagan, David Wright, Carlos Beltran, Ike Davis, Jason Bay, Josh Thole, Daniel Murphy.

Bench – Ronny Paulino, Brad Emaus, Luis Castillo, Luis Hernandez, Lucas Duda.

Starting Rotation – Mike Pelfrey, Jon Niese, R.A. Dickey, Chris Capuano, Dillon Gee.

Bullpen – Oliver Perez, Manny Acosta, Taylor Buchholz, Pat Misch, D.J. Carrasco, Bobby Parnell, Francisco Rodriguez.

Of those 25 players, the ones I see most likely being replaced by opening day are Luis Castillo, Luis Hernandez, Lucas Duda, Dillon Gee, Oliver Perez, and Pat Misch. Thats 6 spots that are subject to change depending on moves made from now until opening day as well as camp battles that will unfold.

Sandy Alderson will most likely sign one more starting pitcher. My bet is still on Chris Young. So stick Dillon Gee in AAA as insurance. Also expect Alderson to sign a lefty reliever eventually. Right now he’s in wait-mode to see which one of his choices price drops the lowest. Names like Tim Byrdak, Clay Rapada, Taylor Tankersley, Ron Mahay, Joe Beimel, Will Ohman, and Dennys Reyes are all possibilities. A 4th Outfielder is also a possibility for a bargain bin signing eventually. I have extreme doubts the Mets plan to use Lucas Duda in that role to start the season.

Camp Battles are also going to have an affect on the final 25-man roster. Daniel Murphy, Brad Emaus, Luis Hernandez, Luis Castillo, and Chin-Lung Hu will all compete for the 2B job in spring training. I see only 2-3 of those guys actually making the roster. I see Lucas Duda and Fernando Martinez competing for the 4th OF job if the Mets don’t sign anyone. Terry Collins has already gone on record saying he will give F-Mart a shot at winning the job in the Spring. I see no chance in hell that Oliver Perez makes the opening day roster. He’s pitched awful over the winter and shows no sign of improving anytime soon. Pat Misch will probably find him himself in AAA as insurance or waived. However if we sign just one more SP and a Lefty Reliever, then theres a chance Misch or Perez makes the team as the 25th man in a Long Reliever position since Gee will be sent to AAA. My money would be on Misch winning that battle.

Either way the 25-man roster is far from set. Over 20% of the roster is in question going into camp. Lot’s of fun battles are likely to unfold over Spring. It’s going to be a lot of fun to watch.

A report has surfaced today at ESPN Boston that says the Red Sox will non-tender lefty reliever Hideki Okajima by tonight’s midnight deadline. With an obvious glaring need in the bullpen, specifically from the left side, Okajima makes a ton of sense.

Okajima, 35, is coming off clearly the worst season of his big league career where he posted a 4.50 ERA, 1.72 WHIP, .314 BAA (including .284 vs LHH) in 56 games for Boston. One would expect with his age, being a non tender, and coming off such a poor year he would get a pay cut from his $2,75M he made in 2010. Of course the Mets are money strapped, and were not sure how much they have to spend, so Okajima may still price himself out of their range. But it’s certainly worth a look.

As Sandy Alderson said at his press conference and afterward, the Mets will probably be looking this offseason for the guys coming off of poor years with prior success, or guys coming off injury that they can foresee a bounce back from (see Chris Young). Okajima’s average fastball velocity was down 0.3 MPH from 2009, which is insignificant. So unlike a lot of pitchers where you can look at a significant velocity drop as the reason for their lack of success, that doesn’t quite apply to Okajima.

Okajima’s BAA vs LHH in 2009 was his MLB career best .164, and the average BAA vs LHH over his career pre-2010 is a very successful .196. I am not entirely sure how much he will cost in dollars, but fact is the Mets need to get someone who has a track record of success vs left handers in the pen, especially with Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Brian McCann and even Jason Heyward in the division. Though he put up nice numbers in Triple-A last year, and has done well in the Winter League thus far, you simply cannot count on Mike O’Connor to fill the role that Pedro Feliciano filled. O’Connor could though fill the role Hisanori Takahashi had due to his prior starting experience, and now middle relief experience.

Even though things look a bit grim for 2011, baseball is a tricky game. You simply cannot say now that the Mets won’t be in contention, I mean even the “horrible” Mets that people talked about in 2010 were 10 games over .500 at the break, and had a better record than the now reigning World Champion San Francisco Giants. Fact is the Mets have a lot of talent. Do they mesh together is what we cannot be certain of. But having Jerry Manuel manage them certainly wasn’t a recipe for success. While I am skeptical of Terry Collins, one thing I do expect from him is to keep the team motivated for 162 games. If motivated this team could compete for a wild card spot. The talent is there, it just has to click. To have an offense with Ike Davis, Jose Reyes, David Wright, a healthy Jason Bay, Carlos Beltran (even if not 100%) and Angel Pagan is nothing to scoff at. The issue obviously lies in the rotation with when Johan Santana will be back, and how effective he will be.

If the team could simply hold ground until Santana is back, they do have the talent to simply take off from there. If you are Alderson you have to spend whatever funds you have this offseason wisely, but at the same time you have to bring in pieces that can help make the New York Mets a contender in 2011. I think Hideki Okajima is the type of guy who could bounce back in a move to the NL in a big way. The bullpen really to me only has Francisco Rodriguez, Bobby Parnell and probably Ryota Igarashi as pretty sure bets to be in the pen in 2011. You could make the case for Manny Acosta and possibly even Manuel Alvarez, but for me Pat Misch and/or Mike O’Connor don’t fit as your #1 lefty out of the pen. You can have them compete for the 2nd lefty, that I have no issue with. But I think getting Okajima could have a very big positive impact for the Mets in 2011, and even if it looks like a year where they won’t contend again, I certainly believe.