St. Lucie to Flushing

Mets/Giants Trade Brewing?

In early May the San Francisco Giants visited Citi Field for a 3 game series with the Mets. Mets lost 2 out of 3 games, though put up a fight in each game. For some reason that week a rumor began to float around of a possible trade brewing between the Mets and Giants for Jose Reyes. Obviously these rumors were false given the date of the season. But were they completely false?

I’m not saying I believe Sandy Alderson discussed dealing Reyes with Brian Sabean in early May. However the buzz surrounding the rumors may have been just foreshadowing a possible deal. The Giants recently recalled top prospect Brandon Belt from AAA. Today news broke that they plan to use him in a bench role. In my opinion that is the worst thing they could do with a young player like Belt. Unless say they are showcasing him for a possible trade…

Brandon Belt is a 1B by trade. However many people believe he could handle a corner OF position at the Major League level. That means maybe he could slide into RF when Beltran is traded/leaves in FA (most likely traded). Obviously 1B is locked up in Metsie land for years to come with one of my personal favorite players Ike Davis. If Belt can handle RF he could bring a nice young bat to the Mets lineup.

Who else could be in play in a possible trade? Maybe Brandon Crawford. Crawford was just promoted from Single-A to the majors. That’s a pretty major jump even for a prospect of Crawfords age (24). The Giants may be trying to showcase Crawford for a possible trade as well.

The last person of interest in a possible Mets/Giants Reyes trade is Zack Wheeler. He is the top Giants pitching prospect. More than likely if Sabean/Alderson do talk this guy’s name will be brought up. I doubt we could get Belt and Wheeler for Reyes without them getting a window to negotiate a new contract. But crazier things have happened. Maybe we can throw in Thole to replace Buster Posey, who will be lost for most of the 2011 season after his injury.

Either way don’t be surprised if you start hearing Mets/Giants trade rumors heating up as we approach the July 31 trade deadline.

Early Opening Day Roster Prediction

Before I really jump full fledged back into prospect mode, I wanted to give one more piece on the big league team. My contributors will still give it coverage, but I am going to jump to where I feel most comfortable, and that is extensive coverage of the minors.

My personal opinion on Sandy Alderson’s first offseason as Mets GM is that considering the financial situation he was given, he did a heck of a job. Virtually every move he decided to do made sense in some fashion. He filled out the rotation with two arms so there can be depth at AAA. He got some bullpen competition, he got solid bench contributors and good competition at second base. Unlike his predecessor, Sandy Alderson built a complete team. Is it the best team ever? No. But it has atleast capable players at every position on the diamond.

I will do a lot of coverage of minor league and major league camp when I go to St Lucie for spring training March 5th – 12th. Here are my pre-spring training predictions as to what the 2011 Opening Day Mets will look like:

Lineup:
1. SS Jose Reyes
2. RF Angel Pagan
3. 3B David Wright
4. CF Carlos Beltran
5. LF Jason Bay
6. 1B Ike Davis
7. 2B Daniel Murphy (platoon with Brad Emaus. Should face Josh Johnson OD, so I’ll say Murphy gets the start.)
8. C Josh Thole
9. P Mike Pelfrey

If healthy this lineup should be easily a top 3 lineup in the NL. I don’t think there is a weakness in the lineup if everyone is healthy. I am really excited to see what it can do.

Bench:
C Mike Nickeas (Ronny Paulino is suspended first 8 games for PED use)
2B/3B Brad Emaus (a kind of platoon with Murphy)
MIF Chin-lung Hu (he’ll beat Justin Turner,Luis Hernandez for job)
OF/2B Scott Hairston (he’ll compete with Nick Evans and win)
OF Willie Harris (he’s your straight up 4th outfielder)

I actually really like this bench. Good defensive players all around, and some solid pop too. The bench I think could be a real strength for the 2011 Mets.

Rotation:
1. RHP Mike Pelfrey
2. LHP Jon Niese
3. RHP RA Dickey
4. LHP Chris Capuano
5. RHP Chris Young

This rotation has upside, but extreme downside. If all healthy, it could certainly be formidable. If not, then the Mets are going to tank .. fast.

Bullpen:
1. RHP Francisco Rodriguez
2. RHP Bobby Parnell
3. RHP Taylor Buchholz
4. RHP DJ Carrasco
5. LHP Tim Byrdak
6. RHP Pedro Beato
7. RHP Manny Acosta

You don’t have a pure long reliever in the pen, but DJ Carrasco and theoretically Pedro Beato(starter before 2010 in minors) should be able to give you multiple innings if you need it. You probably lose Pat Misch though to waivers.

25-Man Roster: Bargain Signings & Camp Battles

By my estimations, this is the 25-man roster I could see the Mets going into 2011 with if the season started tomorrow -

Starting Lineup – Jose Reyes, Angel Pagan, David Wright, Carlos Beltran, Ike Davis, Jason Bay, Josh Thole, Daniel Murphy.

Bench – Ronny Paulino, Brad Emaus, Luis Castillo, Luis Hernandez, Lucas Duda.

Starting Rotation – Mike Pelfrey, Jon Niese, R.A. Dickey, Chris Capuano, Dillon Gee.

Bullpen – Oliver Perez, Manny Acosta, Taylor Buchholz, Pat Misch, D.J. Carrasco, Bobby Parnell, Francisco Rodriguez.

Of those 25 players, the ones I see most likely being replaced by opening day are Luis Castillo, Luis Hernandez, Lucas Duda, Dillon Gee, Oliver Perez, and Pat Misch. Thats 6 spots that are subject to change depending on moves made from now until opening day as well as camp battles that will unfold.

Sandy Alderson will most likely sign one more starting pitcher. My bet is still on Chris Young. So stick Dillon Gee in AAA as insurance. Also expect Alderson to sign a lefty reliever eventually. Right now he’s in wait-mode to see which one of his choices price drops the lowest. Names like Tim Byrdak, Clay Rapada, Taylor Tankersley, Ron Mahay, Joe Beimel, Will Ohman, and Dennys Reyes are all possibilities. A 4th Outfielder is also a possibility for a bargain bin signing eventually. I have extreme doubts the Mets plan to use Lucas Duda in that role to start the season.

Camp Battles are also going to have an affect on the final 25-man roster. Daniel Murphy, Brad Emaus, Luis Hernandez, Luis Castillo, and Chin-Lung Hu will all compete for the 2B job in spring training. I see only 2-3 of those guys actually making the roster. I see Lucas Duda and Fernando Martinez competing for the 4th OF job if the Mets don’t sign anyone. Terry Collins has already gone on record saying he will give F-Mart a shot at winning the job in the Spring. I see no chance in hell that Oliver Perez makes the opening day roster. He’s pitched awful over the winter and shows no sign of improving anytime soon. Pat Misch will probably find him himself in AAA as insurance or waived. However if we sign just one more SP and a Lefty Reliever, then theres a chance Misch or Perez makes the team as the 25th man in a Long Reliever position since Gee will be sent to AAA. My money would be on Misch winning that battle.

Either way the 25-man roster is far from set. Over 20% of the roster is in question going into camp. Lot’s of fun battles are likely to unfold over Spring. It’s going to be a lot of fun to watch.

The REAL 2010 Gold Glove Winners

Every single year when MLB announces the National League and American League Gold Glove winners there is always a discrepancy among fans if player X deserved it over player Z. I am not sure what formula MLB uses to determine this, but whatever they use is wrong. Likely the best stat to determine the award would be Ultimate Zone Rating(UZR). The definition of UZR from the great FanGraphs is: The number of runs above or below average a fielder is in both range runs, and error runs combined.

Even though some sabermatricians are frowning upon UZR, it is a very good stat to determine the player’s value for that given season. A thing to remember about UZR is that it is not a sign of things to come, could potentially be an anomaly. A lot of people well versed in sabermetrics tend to look for trends of things to come through WAR and other stats like that. UZR is not the stat to be used for future trends, but could be very good for a 1 year sample. And when you’re determining a given year’s Gold Glove Award winners, UZR could come in great use. Unfortunately FanGraphs does not show a UZR for Pitchers or Catchers, so we will award the real life pitcher and catcher winners the Gold Glove. But here are your TRUE AL and NL Gold Glove winners:

National League :

P: Bronson Arroyo
C: Yadier Molina
1B: Ike Davis – UZR +10.1 (Gold Glove Winner Albert Pujols UZR +1.5 – 5th in NL)
2B: Chase Utley – UZR +10.3 (Gold Glove Winner Brandon Phillips UZR +9.7 – 2nd in NL)
3B: Chase Headley – UZR +16.5 (Gold Glove Winner Scott Rolen UZR +10.6 – 3rd in NL)
SS: Brendan Ryan – UZR +11.5 (Gold Glove Winner Troy Tulowitzki UZR +7.1 – 3rd in NL)
OF: Andres Torres – UZR +21.2 (Gold Glove Winner Carlos Gonzalez UZR -2.7 – 21st in NL)
OF: Jay Bruce – UZR +20.2 (Gold Glove winner Shane Victorino UZR +2.6 – 16th in NL)
OF: Michael Bourn – UZR +17.6 (He won a Gold Glove)

So in the NL, the voters got 1 correct, were extremely close on 1, relatively close on a couple, and way off on the others. And one (Gonzalez) was actually below average.

American League:

P: Mark Buehrle
C: Joe Mauer
1B: Daric Barton – UZR +12.1 (Gold Glove Winner Mark Teixeira UZR -2.9 – 5th in AL)
2B: Mark Ellis – UZR +9.9 (Gold Glove Winner Robinson Cano UZR -0.6 – 5th in AL)
3B: Kevin Kouzmanoff – UZR +16.1 (Gold Glove Winner Evan Longoria UZR +11.1 – 3rd in AL)
SS: Alexei Ramirez – UZR +10.8 (Gold Glove Winner Derek Jeter UZR -4.7 – 7th in AL)
OF: Brett Gardner – UZR +21.9 (Gold Glove Winner Franklin Gutierrez UZR +7.3 – 7th in AL)
OF: Carl Crawford – UZR +18.5 (He won a Gold Glove)
OF: Ichiro Suzuki – UZR +15.6 (He won a Gold Glove)

The AL they did a little better. They got 2 correct, 1 was relatively close, but the others were bigtime misses. Just for fun, the 3 Yankees that won the Gold Glove were all actually below average, and the most talked about, Derek Jeter was the worst among all Gold Glove winners.

Everyone knows the Gold Glove voting is a very flawed system, and all you need to prove this theory is simple mathematics, calculate UZR and you will see the true winners for that given season. The voters got 3 out of 14 correct. That is simply not an acceptable number when you are trying to award people based on their success in the field in a given season.

Mets need serious philosophy change

One of the issues with the Mets from the last few years is that if they had an issue, they went and bought it. They also addressed it one need at a time. Two years ago, well the bullpen was a problem, enter Francisco Rodriguez and JJ Putz. Then the following year they hit 95 home runs as a team, enter Jason Bay. They never addressed multiple needs that existed at once, it was just fix what the problem the year before was and assume the best from everything else you already have.

The Mets do not have the financial muscle that the team across town does, so they can’t afford to try to act like them and buy any need they have. Of course sometimes the Yankees buy something that isn’t even a need, but that’s a story for another day. Look at some of the model franchises, the Red Sox, the Angels, the Twins etc. How are they built? Primarily from within. The proper way to build a team, atleast in modern day baseball unless you have unlimited funds is to build from within.

It is a much more cost effective way to build. If you spend $10M on a draft, which is an absurdly high number, you still are $2M shy of what Oliver Perez made in 2010. I am not asking the Mets to be the top spender in the league in the draft/international free agency every year. But the fact that a huge market team like the Mets, who spend $130+ million per year on their major league team sits in the bottom of the barrel in draft/IFA spending is a complete joke. Part of that is the Wilpon’s wanting to adhere to Bud Selig’s slot recommendations, but I think part of it is management, which is fortunately changing.

Whoever the new GM is needs to sit Jeff Wilpon down and say to him, look what is happening here is not working. The fact you guys don’t spend on the draft is drastically hurting the long term health of the franchise. The proper way to build your organization is the polar opposite of what the Mets are doing. The Mets are buying their free agents, and making trades (Carlos Beltran, Johan Santana, K-Rod, Jason Bay etc) and supplementing their purchases with prospects (Ike Davis, Josh Thole etc). In reality, the better way to build is to build from your prospects and supplement them with your purchases.

I absolutely think the Mets should spend on the major league team, and be involved on all of the top free agents every year if they fit. But imagine having the ability to buy more than one very good free agent at a time? That could be accomplished by spending more on the draft and international free agency. Look at it this way: If you can have 2-3 guys in your starting rotation that are homegrown making near league minimum, how much more money does that provide for you to have to spend on the other members of the rotation and other spots? It certainly would stop you from dishing out silly deals like the one Oliver Perez received. The more talent you have that you produce yourself, the less commitments you have to make to outside players, which means less risk of a deal completely flopping in your face.

Of course not every prospect pans out. But that’s why you have to bring in good scouts with a good eye for talent, and trust them when they say player x is a sound investment at $300K. Let’s look at Erik Goeddel from the 2010 draft as an example. Jason Churchill of ESPN.com recently did an interview with Mike Diaz over at Mets Minor League Blog. In the interview he said about Goeddel that he was the most impressive arm that he saw on the UCLA Bruins last year, including likely top 3 pick in the 2011 draft, Gerrit Cole. Some think Goeddel ends up a closer type rather than a starter, but even if that’s the case, isn’t it a better investment with the $350K the Mets spent to sign Goeddel and develop their own good closer rather than giving out a contract like the one K-Rod received?

Are the Mets making progress in this area? Absolutely. I am seeing more and more youth infused into the team, especially in 2010, which is great. Now imagine they had more high level prospects? Ike Davis looks like he’ll be a fine player, you can find more Ike Davis types in the draft outside of round 1 even. Obviously the draft is a crapshoot, but the investment there long-term will be worth it. You’ll miss plenty, but when you do hit and produce that star, the dollar value he will be worth will be worth more than the entire draft you drafted him in. And then you don’t need to go pay $15M a year for it.

You can even win while making your farm grow. Look at the Red Sox, Angels, Twins. Every single year they are in the race, or the playoffs, and every single year their farm keeps improving. They have late picks, it’s all about having the right guys scouting (it all starts with a very strong scouting director), and being willing to spend when it fits. Of course you need your organizational fillers, and your guys who just project as back end starters etc, but if you can strategically spend in the draft, it’s more than worth your while. Look at what the Nationals did this year. AJ Cole, bonafide mid 1st round talent falls due to signability, and the Nats pay him even after giving out big $ to Bryce Harper.

I am not asking the team to every single round of the draft take the best player available, or every year in IFA sign the 3 best kids out there. Scout people, determine people who are worth spending on, and act on it. In the draft this is probably more often high school kids or draft eligible sophomores in college who will fall due to signability. Take some chances, and prepare to give the kids your scouts deem worth it some money. Then when you develop your own stars, you at that point can realize where you need to spend on outside players, and you can bring in the best of the best there. This is the way to build a powerhouse, and I hope whoever is named GM can implement a philiosophy similar to this.

Goodbye, Box!

"Thinking Outside the Box"- Definition per Wikipedia "Thinking outside the box is to think differently, unconventionally or from a new perspective. This phrase often refers to novel, creative and smart thinking."Thinking outside the box is a term frequently used by sports fans who are unhappy with the unoriginal ways their team has gone about building a team or style in which their team plays. In recent years Tony LaRussa has garnered both praise and disdain for  thinking "outside of the box" and having his pitcher hit 8th, while Dolphins Head Coach Tony Sparano was mocked for his use of the Wildcat formation (until it worked and other teams started using it). The Mets in recent years have done the direct opposite by resigning what was available of a thin crop of FA (Luis Castillo and Oliver Perez) or playing veterans who were under-performing (Frenchy/Barajas recent examples) over young players. To quote the late great Owen Hart "enough is enough and it’s time for a change".

First things first…. The Mets are unlikely to have a lot of money to spend this upcoming off-season. According to Adam Rubin of ESPNNY the Mets already have over 120 million committed for next year not including Pedro Feliciano. With declining attendance and POTENTIAL losses (I fully admit I have no clue if the Wilpons lost money or not) but they certainly have operated in a fashion that would imply they are less willing to spend (2009 Payroll- 149.3 million, 2010 Payroll 126.5 million) (according to http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2004/12/new-york-mets.html). That said as Paul McCartney once wrote "Money can’t buy you love" or wins…. I am going to examine a few ways the Mets can improve that are realistic within the Mets current budget yet still improves the team.

1. Trade Ike Davis- What? I know what you are thinking "I’m done reading this guys column", "I like Wallace Matthews more!". Let me clarify my position here…. I do NOT want to trade Ike Davis at all. I just believe in examining all options and if the Mariners really were willing to trade Cliff Lee for Davis I would like to find out what other pitchers around the league would be available due to Ike’s elevated prospect status. Could the Mets get Zach Greinke with Ike as a centerpiece? Would the Giants be willing to discuss Matt Cain? Would the Tigers be willing to discuss Verlander (with Miguel Cabrera moving full-time to DH?). These are things I would want to look into in regard to Ike. "Well Mr. Smartypants who would play 1st base?" The answer to that is two-fold in my opinion. #1 It’s my belief a top of the rotation pitcher is a lot harder to find than a league average 1b #2 The Mets actually do have quite a few bats in the organization who either could give "Ike-level" production now or will shortly. Nick Evans/Duda platoon for example likely outperforms Ike Davis in 2011. Maybe you move Wilmer Flores to 1b if you really don’t believe he can stick at SS. Maybe you sign a cheap option for a year. Whatever the case may be I believe in looking into the value of an asset and not becoming too attached to an unproven player.

2. "How come you’re always such a fussy young man
Don’t want no Captain Crunch, don’t want no Raisin Bran
Well, don’t you know that other kids are starving in Japan
So eat it, just eat it
– Alfred Matthew "Weird Al" Yankovic

Don’t want to argue, I don’t want to debate
Don’t want to hear about what kind of food you hate
You won’t get no dessert ’till you clean off your plate
So eat it"

Regardless of if the Mets have money problems or not they do have an odd mix of very young and guys who LIKELY won’t be here when the Mets are contenders again. With that being said if the Mets want the fans to accept a lower payroll how about making the big off-season moves reflect the idea of short term rebuilding ie offer Castillo and 3-4 million around the league (making him a 2-3 million dollar player) and if nobody bites… eat it. Nobody is taking Oliver Perez regardless of how much we throw in so eat it. I’m a HUGE fan of Carlos Beltran but even I realize he is no longer the player he once was and with chronic knee issues he is very unlikely to bounce back much. Instead of running Beltran out there for another year, I suggest eating whatever it takes to move Beltran to a team willing to give up SOMETHING in return. Beltran and 8 million to Boston for Felix Doubrant and Jed Lowrie would be a decent move in my opinion. This would allow the Mets to play Pagan every day in CF. I would then take Juan Rivera off the hands of the Angels (they are looking to move him and will likely kick in money to do so. He only makes 5.25 million and he would serve as insurance for my 2011 RF…. Fernando Martinez. By late 2011 I would either have Fernando proving his worth or hopefully Kirk Nieuwenhuis). Following the 2011 the Mets figure to have significant money to spend even after extending Reyes and Wright.

3. Enough loving the glove. The Mets under Omar Minaya have been FAR too willing to accept sub-par offense from positions the Mets (or more accurately Omar) deem "defensive". This is the excuse given to why Luis Castillo played so much (despite defensive metrics saying he was awful out there), hey he used to be known for his glove lets run him out there. This is why the Mets traded for Gary Matthews Jr. (despite the same metrics saying he was no longer strong defensively). Is defense important? ABSOLUTELY but on a team where the pressure to score runs has been placed solely on the backs of 2-3 players penciling in below average offensive players simply doesn’t work. The 2010 Mets have received 1657 ab’s from players going into the year people expected strong offense from (Reyes, Wright, Pagan and Bay) and with the exception of Bay have received strong output from all 4, the problem lies in the fact that the Mets have also received 975 ab’s from their other "starters" (Frenchy, Barajas, Castillo+ Cora) and that doesn’t even include 2 struggling rookies (Davis/Tejada with over 500 ab’s). The Mets have to be willing to accept a little less defense (though worse than Castillo is nearly impossible) in exchange for more help for the "good" players. Guys like Dan Uggla and Kelly Johnson routinely are overlooked by the Mets but would serve as huge upgrades. The Mets can/will be good again.



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