St. Lucie to Flushing

Early Opening Day Roster Prediction

Before I really jump full fledged back into prospect mode, I wanted to give one more piece on the big league team. My contributors will still give it coverage, but I am going to jump to where I feel most comfortable, and that is extensive coverage of the minors.

My personal opinion on Sandy Alderson’s first offseason as Mets GM is that considering the financial situation he was given, he did a heck of a job. Virtually every move he decided to do made sense in some fashion. He filled out the rotation with two arms so there can be depth at AAA. He got some bullpen competition, he got solid bench contributors and good competition at second base. Unlike his predecessor, Sandy Alderson built a complete team. Is it the best team ever? No. But it has atleast capable players at every position on the diamond.

I will do a lot of coverage of minor league and major league camp when I go to St Lucie for spring training March 5th – 12th. Here are my pre-spring training predictions as to what the 2011 Opening Day Mets will look like:

Lineup:
1. SS Jose Reyes
2. RF Angel Pagan
3. 3B David Wright
4. CF Carlos Beltran
5. LF Jason Bay
6. 1B Ike Davis
7. 2B Daniel Murphy (platoon with Brad Emaus. Should face Josh Johnson OD, so I’ll say Murphy gets the start.)
8. C Josh Thole
9. P Mike Pelfrey

If healthy this lineup should be easily a top 3 lineup in the NL. I don’t think there is a weakness in the lineup if everyone is healthy. I am really excited to see what it can do.

Bench:
C Mike Nickeas (Ronny Paulino is suspended first 8 games for PED use)
2B/3B Brad Emaus (a kind of platoon with Murphy)
MIF Chin-lung Hu (he’ll beat Justin Turner,Luis Hernandez for job)
OF/2B Scott Hairston (he’ll compete with Nick Evans and win)
OF Willie Harris (he’s your straight up 4th outfielder)

I actually really like this bench. Good defensive players all around, and some solid pop too. The bench I think could be a real strength for the 2011 Mets.

Rotation:
1. RHP Mike Pelfrey
2. LHP Jon Niese
3. RHP RA Dickey
4. LHP Chris Capuano
5. RHP Chris Young

This rotation has upside, but extreme downside. If all healthy, it could certainly be formidable. If not, then the Mets are going to tank .. fast.

Bullpen:
1. RHP Francisco Rodriguez
2. RHP Bobby Parnell
3. RHP Taylor Buchholz
4. RHP DJ Carrasco
5. LHP Tim Byrdak
6. RHP Pedro Beato
7. RHP Manny Acosta

You don’t have a pure long reliever in the pen, but DJ Carrasco and theoretically Pedro Beato(starter before 2010 in minors) should be able to give you multiple innings if you need it. You probably lose Pat Misch though to waivers.

25-Man Roster: Bargain Signings & Camp Battles

By my estimations, this is the 25-man roster I could see the Mets going into 2011 with if the season started tomorrow -

Starting Lineup – Jose Reyes, Angel Pagan, David Wright, Carlos Beltran, Ike Davis, Jason Bay, Josh Thole, Daniel Murphy.

Bench – Ronny Paulino, Brad Emaus, Luis Castillo, Luis Hernandez, Lucas Duda.

Starting Rotation – Mike Pelfrey, Jon Niese, R.A. Dickey, Chris Capuano, Dillon Gee.

Bullpen – Oliver Perez, Manny Acosta, Taylor Buchholz, Pat Misch, D.J. Carrasco, Bobby Parnell, Francisco Rodriguez.

Of those 25 players, the ones I see most likely being replaced by opening day are Luis Castillo, Luis Hernandez, Lucas Duda, Dillon Gee, Oliver Perez, and Pat Misch. Thats 6 spots that are subject to change depending on moves made from now until opening day as well as camp battles that will unfold.

Sandy Alderson will most likely sign one more starting pitcher. My bet is still on Chris Young. So stick Dillon Gee in AAA as insurance. Also expect Alderson to sign a lefty reliever eventually. Right now he’s in wait-mode to see which one of his choices price drops the lowest. Names like Tim Byrdak, Clay Rapada, Taylor Tankersley, Ron Mahay, Joe Beimel, Will Ohman, and Dennys Reyes are all possibilities. A 4th Outfielder is also a possibility for a bargain bin signing eventually. I have extreme doubts the Mets plan to use Lucas Duda in that role to start the season.

Camp Battles are also going to have an affect on the final 25-man roster. Daniel Murphy, Brad Emaus, Luis Hernandez, Luis Castillo, and Chin-Lung Hu will all compete for the 2B job in spring training. I see only 2-3 of those guys actually making the roster. I see Lucas Duda and Fernando Martinez competing for the 4th OF job if the Mets don’t sign anyone. Terry Collins has already gone on record saying he will give F-Mart a shot at winning the job in the Spring. I see no chance in hell that Oliver Perez makes the opening day roster. He’s pitched awful over the winter and shows no sign of improving anytime soon. Pat Misch will probably find him himself in AAA as insurance or waived. However if we sign just one more SP and a Lefty Reliever, then theres a chance Misch or Perez makes the team as the 25th man in a Long Reliever position since Gee will be sent to AAA. My money would be on Misch winning that battle.

Either way the 25-man roster is far from set. Over 20% of the roster is in question going into camp. Lot’s of fun battles are likely to unfold over Spring. It’s going to be a lot of fun to watch.

Hey big spender…. Not…. but that’s ok

Based on what we think we know about Sandy Alderson here is a partial list of players I think might make some sense going after on the FA market. Alderson made pretty clear the Mets will NOT be players for the “big” players in the FA market but the Mets without question will need to plug some holes within the offense (2b, backup catcher)

1B- Ike Davis unquestionably is our starting 1b but it would be surprising to see Chris Carter back with the Mets this year considering he is out of options and his absolutely horrendous fielding. The fact Carter (like Davis) hits lefty doesn’t help his case. The FA 1b market does not have any “clear” options for a righty hitting 1b to backup Ike. The best option available looks to be Ty Wigginton who conceivably could join the Mets as a platoon partner/insurance with Ruben Tejada (for all we know Sandy intends to send Ruben back to AAA where he more likely than not still belongs) maybe Justin Turner is the Mets starting 2b but Wigginton has the “power” Sandy spoke about in the press conference, can play 1b/2b/3b and the corner OF position and has some of the “fire” the Mets have been lacking. Wiggy hit 248/312/415 with 22 homers this season.

2b- Personally I am of the belief that if the Mets can’t get a true MAJOR upgrade at 2b (Uggla, Kelly Johnson etc) I would roll the dice with Tejada/Murphy/Turner with a veteran backup like Eckstein but the current list of FA 2b includes Orlando Hudson (he’s older and said he has no interest in splitting time with a young player so he doesn’t seem like an ideal fit), Jose Lopez who almost surely will be non-tendered (personally I am not a fan of his) and the legend known as Kaz Matsui

SS- We have a SS (hopefully Reyes retires a Met) but the FA SS market is rather weak. Maybe the Mets look at someone like Counsell as a backup/utility player but I have a hard time believing the Mets sign anyone of note to backup Reyes

3b- Same as SS. Adrian Beltre is likely the cream of the crop at the hot corner but we have Wright… hopefully for the next 10-12 years.

OF- The Mets figure to have Bay/Beltan/Pagan (in some configuration) in the OF. It’s pretty clear they won’t be in on Carl Crawford or Jayson Werth. I think they need to add an above average 4th OF considering the fact that Bay/Pagan/Beltran are all injury prone/concerns. Options would include Rick Ankiel, Austin Kearns, Eric Hinske, Podsednik (I’d love to add Podsednik as our 4th OF but someone likely signs him to start)

C- The Mets need a backup catcher. They can resign Blanco though his age (40) and injury issues are likely a decent concern. Options include Rod Barajas (yuck), Miguel Olivo (I’d make him an offer) if the Rockies don’t pick up his option, John Buck (he’s going to get a starting job from someone more likely than not), Pierzynski (is he ok as a backup? who knows), Varitek (might make a nice mentor for Thole) and Greg Zaun (if the Brewers turn down his option)

Mets need serious philosophy change

One of the issues with the Mets from the last few years is that if they had an issue, they went and bought it. They also addressed it one need at a time. Two years ago, well the bullpen was a problem, enter Francisco Rodriguez and JJ Putz. Then the following year they hit 95 home runs as a team, enter Jason Bay. They never addressed multiple needs that existed at once, it was just fix what the problem the year before was and assume the best from everything else you already have.

The Mets do not have the financial muscle that the team across town does, so they can’t afford to try to act like them and buy any need they have. Of course sometimes the Yankees buy something that isn’t even a need, but that’s a story for another day. Look at some of the model franchises, the Red Sox, the Angels, the Twins etc. How are they built? Primarily from within. The proper way to build a team, atleast in modern day baseball unless you have unlimited funds is to build from within.

It is a much more cost effective way to build. If you spend $10M on a draft, which is an absurdly high number, you still are $2M shy of what Oliver Perez made in 2010. I am not asking the Mets to be the top spender in the league in the draft/international free agency every year. But the fact that a huge market team like the Mets, who spend $130+ million per year on their major league team sits in the bottom of the barrel in draft/IFA spending is a complete joke. Part of that is the Wilpon’s wanting to adhere to Bud Selig’s slot recommendations, but I think part of it is management, which is fortunately changing.

Whoever the new GM is needs to sit Jeff Wilpon down and say to him, look what is happening here is not working. The fact you guys don’t spend on the draft is drastically hurting the long term health of the franchise. The proper way to build your organization is the polar opposite of what the Mets are doing. The Mets are buying their free agents, and making trades (Carlos Beltran, Johan Santana, K-Rod, Jason Bay etc) and supplementing their purchases with prospects (Ike Davis, Josh Thole etc). In reality, the better way to build is to build from your prospects and supplement them with your purchases.

I absolutely think the Mets should spend on the major league team, and be involved on all of the top free agents every year if they fit. But imagine having the ability to buy more than one very good free agent at a time? That could be accomplished by spending more on the draft and international free agency. Look at it this way: If you can have 2-3 guys in your starting rotation that are homegrown making near league minimum, how much more money does that provide for you to have to spend on the other members of the rotation and other spots? It certainly would stop you from dishing out silly deals like the one Oliver Perez received. The more talent you have that you produce yourself, the less commitments you have to make to outside players, which means less risk of a deal completely flopping in your face.

Of course not every prospect pans out. But that’s why you have to bring in good scouts with a good eye for talent, and trust them when they say player x is a sound investment at $300K. Let’s look at Erik Goeddel from the 2010 draft as an example. Jason Churchill of ESPN.com recently did an interview with Mike Diaz over at Mets Minor League Blog. In the interview he said about Goeddel that he was the most impressive arm that he saw on the UCLA Bruins last year, including likely top 3 pick in the 2011 draft, Gerrit Cole. Some think Goeddel ends up a closer type rather than a starter, but even if that’s the case, isn’t it a better investment with the $350K the Mets spent to sign Goeddel and develop their own good closer rather than giving out a contract like the one K-Rod received?

Are the Mets making progress in this area? Absolutely. I am seeing more and more youth infused into the team, especially in 2010, which is great. Now imagine they had more high level prospects? Ike Davis looks like he’ll be a fine player, you can find more Ike Davis types in the draft outside of round 1 even. Obviously the draft is a crapshoot, but the investment there long-term will be worth it. You’ll miss plenty, but when you do hit and produce that star, the dollar value he will be worth will be worth more than the entire draft you drafted him in. And then you don’t need to go pay $15M a year for it.

You can even win while making your farm grow. Look at the Red Sox, Angels, Twins. Every single year they are in the race, or the playoffs, and every single year their farm keeps improving. They have late picks, it’s all about having the right guys scouting (it all starts with a very strong scouting director), and being willing to spend when it fits. Of course you need your organizational fillers, and your guys who just project as back end starters etc, but if you can strategically spend in the draft, it’s more than worth your while. Look at what the Nationals did this year. AJ Cole, bonafide mid 1st round talent falls due to signability, and the Nats pay him even after giving out big $ to Bryce Harper.

I am not asking the team to every single round of the draft take the best player available, or every year in IFA sign the 3 best kids out there. Scout people, determine people who are worth spending on, and act on it. In the draft this is probably more often high school kids or draft eligible sophomores in college who will fall due to signability. Take some chances, and prepare to give the kids your scouts deem worth it some money. Then when you develop your own stars, you at that point can realize where you need to spend on outside players, and you can bring in the best of the best there. This is the way to build a powerhouse, and I hope whoever is named GM can implement a philiosophy similar to this.



  • Recent Posts

    May 2013
    S M T W T F S
    « Feb    
     1234
    567891011
    12131415161718
    19202122232425
    262728293031  
  • Tag Cloud

  • Anonymously Submit Tips