St. Lucie to Flushing

Dissecting Joel Sherman’s Wright to Angels “rumor”

I know the idea of trading David Wright is sensitive for a lot of people (myself included) but the proposed trade makes a ton of sense and Peter Bourjos is being highly underrated by many. He’s 24 years old and already is one of the best CF in baseball defensively. In his first full season he put up 26 doubles, 11 triples and 12 homers with 22 steals. He’s stolen as many as 50 bases in a season in the minors and has plus speed so those 22 steals figure to rise. He is not a FA until 2016. I have to believe if we had a rookie come up and put together that offensive season with an ELITE defensive glove he would be 1000% untouchable to most Mets fans.

Tyler Chatwood is 21 years old and while he didn’t have a great rookie season by any stretch he is unusually young for a 2nd year starting pitcher in the majors and has been insanely rushed with 68 innings at AA at 20 and 21 at AAA at 21. He has a plus FB (93 mph this year on average in the bigs) that can touch 95 (legit, not fake college scouting reports) and a plus curve. He’s said to be a real competitive kid and his stuff even plays up due to this. He has a strong GB rate as well. I’ve seen him compared to Tim Hudson and came into the year the #76 best prospect in baseball. Jon Niese, Chatwood, Matt Harvey, Jeurys Familia, Jenrry Mejia and Zack Wheeler would give the Mets 6 young impressive arms. The Mets could opt to trade 1 or more and would likely have the “ammo” to land almost any major player in baseball should they become available (Felix Hernandez anyone?)

I’m not big on Garrett Richards. Throws hard but I don’t think we need another backend guy. I’d obviously TRY for Jean Segura though that’s likely totally unrealistic. Maybe they get ballsy and take back Bedrosian despite the TJ in June based on upside? Maybe there is another name they like. I just think all things considered this would be a fantastic trade for a rebuilding team. The other name Sherman mentioned (John Hellweg) is a 6’9 monster with a plus FB (95-98) with incredible sink (he’s allowed 5 homers in 185 career innings) and had a 2.12 era as a stater this year with an insane 5.0 GO/AO ratio aka he is a ground ball machine that also gets strikeouts (113 in 89 innings this year)- here is video of Hellweg pitching http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=hTYGdUA4ROQ

1. I think it’s more likely Murphy can play 3b at an average MLB level then he can play 2b.
2. Bourjos likely helps “hide” Duda so if Duda hits his defensive deficiencies will be less of an issue.
3. The Mets save about 15 million (which HOPEFULLY would be put towards keeping Reyes but more realistically could be put towards other areas… I’m going to pretend the Wilpon’s pocketing it isn’t an option)
4. The Mets would add a pretty intriguing starting pitcher to the rotation for 2012. It’s possible they would sent Chatwood to AAA to open the year but if not he’d certainly be intriguing to watch.
5. I think Bourjos is going to end up a lesser man’s Jose Reyes offensively Bourjos in his first full season age 24- 271/327/438-.765 vs. Jose Reyes age 24-280/354/421-775. Now clearly Reyes is the better player (he had 78 steals that year). But I suspect Bourjos would be come a similar fan favorite both in terms of amazing plays in CF but also his ability to hit it in the gap and run as well as show some pop.

Mets Should Sign Joe Nathan

Outside of signing Jose Reyes (do we need another article giving their opinion on if the Mets should sign him or not?) the most important role to be filled on the 2012 Mets is at the closer position. There are a bevy of options available at the position ranging from Jonathan Papelbon and Heath Bell to guys like Brad Lidge and Jonathan Broxton.

After the Mets dealt Francisco Rodriguez to the Brewers the closer position became a black hole. After he was dealt the Mets were 2nd in the NL in blown saves with 10. That is unacceptable and needs to be fixed immediately. I present you with an reasonable option who should do the job at a high level: Joe Nathan.

Nathan, 37 on November 22nd is coming off Tommy John surgery and enjoyed a good amount of success. From July 8th til the end of the year Nathan was 11-11 in save opportunities with a sub-3.00 ERA. He went to Stony Brook U and has openly said the Mets will be “on his radar” this off-season. It is also said that from Tommy John the 2nd season back is when you typically come back to normal, and 2012 would be Nathan’s 2nd season back.

Before undergoing the surgery Nathan was an elite closer who in the 6 seasons he closed for Minnesota never had below 36 saves, above a 2.70 ERA or more than 6 blown saves in any given year. If you bring him and he’s healthy, the closer role will not be an issue with the 2012 Mets.

If Reyes decides to depart I think it opens up more $ to be spent on the pen, rotation and center field. I will address what I would do at other spots in separate posts. As far as a contract for Nathan, I’d figure you could get him for 1 year with a team option for a 2nd at say 6M guaranteed. If Sandy Alderson is truthful that he’s not trying to punt regardless of Jose Reyes he simply cannot go and grab the cheapest closer he can. I am not a proponent of guaranteed multi-year deals to a closer, but I think Nathan on a one year deal with an option is an excellent investment.

Lightbulb!

Recently reports surfaced that the Mets may indeed shop David Wright this summer and keep Jose Reyes instead. I personally think they both will be Mets in 2012, but let’s ponder a option for minute. This option is Wilmer Flores.

It’s common knowledge that Wilmer Flores will outgrow his position (SS) by a large margin. The accepted idea as of late has been that he will eventually end up in a corner OF position. LF seems as if he best option. Think Carlos Lee…

However maybe the OF isn’t necessarily the best option. Why not 3B? I know I know the star who’s not very super plays there. I actually disagree with that statement. David Wright is a superstar. And that’s HOW we should be marketing him! Why? Because high value is always a good thing when teams have interest in a player.

What could we get for David Wright? A team’s #1 pitching prospect for sure. Probably one of there 2 best position prospects as well. It may not be the worst idea if Sandy and Co. believe Wilmer Flores can handle 3B.

****Just remember it will be ALOT harder to replace Jose Reyes then it will be David Wright. Especially if Flores can handle the position.****

I tend to believe Flores could handle 3B. He doesn’t play an awful SS. Yes he will grow…but maybe he will grow into a 3B. Hmmm very interesting idea no? He doesn’t light the world on fire with his arm strength. However his arm isn’t awful. Maybe we should be thinking Aramis Ramirez instead of Carlos Lee. Or that god awful Miguel Cabrera comparison he had bestowed on him at the age of 16. I believe if we turn him into a 3B he could become a Aramis Ramirez type player. It’s not that big of a stretch at his current ceiling is it? Regardless it’s an option.

Mets/Giants Trade Brewing?

In early May the San Francisco Giants visited Citi Field for a 3 game series with the Mets. Mets lost 2 out of 3 games, though put up a fight in each game. For some reason that week a rumor began to float around of a possible trade brewing between the Mets and Giants for Jose Reyes. Obviously these rumors were false given the date of the season. But were they completely false?

I’m not saying I believe Sandy Alderson discussed dealing Reyes with Brian Sabean in early May. However the buzz surrounding the rumors may have been just foreshadowing a possible deal. The Giants recently recalled top prospect Brandon Belt from AAA. Today news broke that they plan to use him in a bench role. In my opinion that is the worst thing they could do with a young player like Belt. Unless say they are showcasing him for a possible trade…

Brandon Belt is a 1B by trade. However many people believe he could handle a corner OF position at the Major League level. That means maybe he could slide into RF when Beltran is traded/leaves in FA (most likely traded). Obviously 1B is locked up in Metsie land for years to come with one of my personal favorite players Ike Davis. If Belt can handle RF he could bring a nice young bat to the Mets lineup.

Who else could be in play in a possible trade? Maybe Brandon Crawford. Crawford was just promoted from Single-A to the majors. That’s a pretty major jump even for a prospect of Crawfords age (24). The Giants may be trying to showcase Crawford for a possible trade as well.

The last person of interest in a possible Mets/Giants Reyes trade is Zack Wheeler. He is the top Giants pitching prospect. More than likely if Sabean/Alderson do talk this guy’s name will be brought up. I doubt we could get Belt and Wheeler for Reyes without them getting a window to negotiate a new contract. But crazier things have happened. Maybe we can throw in Thole to replace Buster Posey, who will be lost for most of the 2011 season after his injury.

Either way don’t be surprised if you start hearing Mets/Giants trade rumors heating up as we approach the July 31 trade deadline.

Thoughts On The Wilpon Quotes

As if I even need to introduce it, obviously everyone knows about the Fred Wilpon quotes that came out this morning. He says Jose Reyes isn’t going to get Carl Crawford money. He says David Wright is a very good player, not a superstar. He makes a joke about the Carlos Beltran contract and says he’s 65-70% of what he was. He then goes on to say the team is s_____.

Are any of these things that the fans don’t say? I know he’s the owner and he shouldn’t say these things publicly. But he did, and to be honest Mets fans need to stop crying about it. My Twitter feed is flooded with everyone crying about it. Isn’t it a shame that the Mets have an owner who genuinely cares and has a vested interest in how the team does?

The only reason fans should cry for the team to be sold is because of the Madoff stuff. When it comes to passion, and love of his product, few owners compare to Fred Wilpon. He wants the Mets to win and is upset when they don’t. When the Mets were losing to the Astros I was saying how they sucked too. What people need to realize is this is New York City. Toughen up! George Steinbrenner said this kind of stuff all the time and I have no issue with it.

A common trend on Twitter is fans say “How will the players react to this?” Are you kidding me? These are grown adults getting paid millions of dollars to play baseball in the best city in the world. If there is any reaction it simply should be: “Let me prove him wrong”. Guess what? Like it or not, everything he says is true. Fans need to be less sensitive, and the players need to take it as motivation to be better. What does that say about the players if they have some wimpy reaction to it? It says they are not made for this team or this city.

Another thing people don’t take into account is this is HIS team. He has every right to say whatever his heart desires about the New York Mets. Just like you can say whatever you want about whatever you own. Do I think he should have put it the way he did publicly? Probably not, but it’s as simple as the truth hurts sometimes. The Mets are not a winner in 2011, and frankly unlikely to be so in 2012 either, and it frustrates Wilpon who puts so much of his heart and money into this team. So I can’t blame him for his lashing.

It’s as simple as this, in New York it’s about winning. The Mets haven’t done a whole lot of that, and it’s not because of Fred Wilpon. It’s because of the people he’s writing checks to, starting in the front office. I think Sandy Alderson’s administration is on the way to turning this thing around, but Fred hired Omar Minaya to run the Mets, and the owner’s job is just to write the checks, not make moves. When the owners start making moves you have a Rafael Soriano to the Yankees situation. You hire a General Manager and you trust him to lead your baseball team to where it belongs.

Fans are being oversensitive, the players we don’t know yet, but they should take it as motivation. The Mets over the past few years have more than had enough talent to make it deep in the playoffs. In 2006 they were the best team in baseball period. The players are not doing what is on the back of their baseball card, the players are not doing what is required to become a champion. Until they do that it won’t matter who the owner is, who the GM is, or who the coaching staff is. End of the day it is about the players performing, and frankly they haven’t done it over the past few years.

I don’t know if that means tear the thing down and start over completely, but either way I think the quotes from Wilpon are very fair and honest. What more would you like from ownership than for them to be fair and honest? If the team isn’t playing well and they mask it the fans scream. Now Wilpon says what everyone feels and everyone has a problem with it?

Why Trading Jose Reyes Could Work

With the Mets off to a not so good 4-6 start in their first 10 games, fans are already prepared to tank the season. It’s clear that things can turn around and the Mets contend, but yesterday I had a huge conversation on Twitter (you can follow me @PSLToFlushing) about what kind of deal I’d extend Reyes to, or what I’d trade him for if the Mets are out of the race.

Well let’s start with the contract. As expected Reyes is off to a hot start in his walk year. If he continues and has a great year you are looking at a guy who is going to be making Jayson Werth type money (7 years $126M) or even more. Reyes, who’s game is almost purely based on his legs is not the kind of player you want to be committing those dollars to, especially with his history of leg injuries. If Reyes wants to stay in New York and give a home town discount, say 5 years $80-85M then I’d consider signing him. Being homegrown does not merit him 126M+. A guy who doesn’t get on base at a high clip, doesn’t have real power is not someone who is going to age well at all. The kind of contract he’s going to get is simply way too high of a price for me even if there was no Madoff scheme. Another thing to remember is he gave the Mets a discount before, so he deserves to go get every penny he could.

Given the probability of the Mets not being in the race, and not being willing to give Reyes the absurd money that he will probably net, the best course of action has to be to trade Jose Reyes. I love Reyes as much as the next guy, but the contract he’s likely to net simply doesn’t make sense for the long term health of the organization. With the team in desperate need of pitching in the organization, you can call up Brian Sabean over in San Francisco and demand Madison Bumgarner in a deal for Reyes. Bumgarner could jump instantly into the rotation and give you a young arm who is under control for a long period of time with very high upside. I don’t know if you could get an arm like Zack Wheeler in the deal as well, but they have other prospects like Ehire Adrianza, Brandon Crawford and Gary Brown who provide some level of intrigue.

The Giants are the most prominently mentioned team, so that’s why I brought them up. But you can expect the Boston Red Sox to call with maybe Jose Iglesias and Anthony Ranaudo types to head a trade. There are a ton of teams, and nobody knows what is going to happen throughout the year, and who may need Reyes. What the Mets need to do is not worry if the fanbase is unhappy, and do what is going to make the team a long-term winner. I don’t want a one or two year run, I want the team to be built into a dynasty. What fans need to do is sit back and allow Sandy Alderson to do his job, and see it through. He knows what he is doing, and he will get the Mets to where they belong, with or without Jose Reyes.



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