Before I really jump full fledged back into prospect mode, I wanted to give one more piece on the big league team. My contributors will still give it coverage, but I am going to jump to where I feel most comfortable, and that is extensive coverage of the minors.

My personal opinion on Sandy Alderson’s first offseason as Mets GM is that considering the financial situation he was given, he did a heck of a job. Virtually every move he decided to do made sense in some fashion. He filled out the rotation with two arms so there can be depth at AAA. He got some bullpen competition, he got solid bench contributors and good competition at second base. Unlike his predecessor, Sandy Alderson built a complete team. Is it the best team ever? No. But it has atleast capable players at every position on the diamond.

I will do a lot of coverage of minor league and major league camp when I go to St Lucie for spring training March 5th – 12th. Here are my pre-spring training predictions as to what the 2011 Opening Day Mets will look like:

Lineup:
1. SS Jose Reyes
2. RF Angel Pagan
3. 3B David Wright
4. CF Carlos Beltran
5. LF Jason Bay
6. 1B Ike Davis
7. 2B Daniel Murphy (platoon with Brad Emaus. Should face Josh Johnson OD, so I’ll say Murphy gets the start.)
8. C Josh Thole
9. P Mike Pelfrey

If healthy this lineup should be easily a top 3 lineup in the NL. I don’t think there is a weakness in the lineup if everyone is healthy. I am really excited to see what it can do.

Bench:
C Mike Nickeas (Ronny Paulino is suspended first 8 games for PED use)
2B/3B Brad Emaus (a kind of platoon with Murphy)
MIF Chin-lung Hu (he’ll beat Justin Turner,Luis Hernandez for job)
OF/2B Scott Hairston (he’ll compete with Nick Evans and win)
OF Willie Harris (he’s your straight up 4th outfielder)

I actually really like this bench. Good defensive players all around, and some solid pop too. The bench I think could be a real strength for the 2011 Mets.

Rotation:
1. RHP Mike Pelfrey
2. LHP Jon Niese
3. RHP RA Dickey
4. LHP Chris Capuano
5. RHP Chris Young

This rotation has upside, but extreme downside. If all healthy, it could certainly be formidable. If not, then the Mets are going to tank .. fast.

Bullpen:
1. RHP Francisco Rodriguez
2. RHP Bobby Parnell
3. RHP Taylor Buchholz
4. RHP DJ Carrasco
5. LHP Tim Byrdak
6. RHP Pedro Beato
7. RHP Manny Acosta

You don’t have a pure long reliever in the pen, but DJ Carrasco and theoretically Pedro Beato(starter before 2010 in minors) should be able to give you multiple innings if you need it. You probably lose Pat Misch though to waivers.

By my estimations, this is the 25-man roster I could see the Mets going into 2011 with if the season started tomorrow -

Starting Lineup – Jose Reyes, Angel Pagan, David Wright, Carlos Beltran, Ike Davis, Jason Bay, Josh Thole, Daniel Murphy.

Bench – Ronny Paulino, Brad Emaus, Luis Castillo, Luis Hernandez, Lucas Duda.

Starting Rotation – Mike Pelfrey, Jon Niese, R.A. Dickey, Chris Capuano, Dillon Gee.

Bullpen – Oliver Perez, Manny Acosta, Taylor Buchholz, Pat Misch, D.J. Carrasco, Bobby Parnell, Francisco Rodriguez.

Of those 25 players, the ones I see most likely being replaced by opening day are Luis Castillo, Luis Hernandez, Lucas Duda, Dillon Gee, Oliver Perez, and Pat Misch. Thats 6 spots that are subject to change depending on moves made from now until opening day as well as camp battles that will unfold.

Sandy Alderson will most likely sign one more starting pitcher. My bet is still on Chris Young. So stick Dillon Gee in AAA as insurance. Also expect Alderson to sign a lefty reliever eventually. Right now he’s in wait-mode to see which one of his choices price drops the lowest. Names like Tim Byrdak, Clay Rapada, Taylor Tankersley, Ron Mahay, Joe Beimel, Will Ohman, and Dennys Reyes are all possibilities. A 4th Outfielder is also a possibility for a bargain bin signing eventually. I have extreme doubts the Mets plan to use Lucas Duda in that role to start the season.

Camp Battles are also going to have an affect on the final 25-man roster. Daniel Murphy, Brad Emaus, Luis Hernandez, Luis Castillo, and Chin-Lung Hu will all compete for the 2B job in spring training. I see only 2-3 of those guys actually making the roster. I see Lucas Duda and Fernando Martinez competing for the 4th OF job if the Mets don’t sign anyone. Terry Collins has already gone on record saying he will give F-Mart a shot at winning the job in the Spring. I see no chance in hell that Oliver Perez makes the opening day roster. He’s pitched awful over the winter and shows no sign of improving anytime soon. Pat Misch will probably find him himself in AAA as insurance or waived. However if we sign just one more SP and a Lefty Reliever, then theres a chance Misch or Perez makes the team as the 25th man in a Long Reliever position since Gee will be sent to AAA. My money would be on Misch winning that battle.

Either way the 25-man roster is far from set. Over 20% of the roster is in question going into camp. Lot’s of fun battles are likely to unfold over Spring. It’s going to be a lot of fun to watch.

The holes on the Mets 2011 team will need to be filled with some creativity. With just a few million to spend and a weak free agent market in place, things will be interesting. Thank god we now have Alderson, Ricciardi, and DePodesta teamed up to make this happen. The holes aren’t major holes but need filling nonetheless. Here are some suggestions of players I expect Sandy and Co. to be considering this winter.

2nd Basemen - Orlando Hudson

I expect Hudson to be the most likely target of the Mets if they decide to try and sign a 2B this winter. His defense is still adequate and he possesses a better OBP (.338) than other options such on the market such as Uribe (.310) and Eckstein (.321). Alderson has been on record how he views on-base percentage to be the most important offensive category. Also Hudson is on record saying how much he loves New York and wants to be a Met for years now. This fit may become reality this winter finally.

Catcher – Miguel Olivo

I think Miguel Olivo may end up becoming Alderson’s first choice this offseason if he decides to sign a backup catcher and not trade for one. Olivo’s .269 AVG and .315 OBP are better than almost all the other viable catching candidates on the market. Others such as Varitek (.232/.293), Blanco (.215/.271), Laird (.207/.263), and Treanor (.211/.287) are also possibilities. Also Alderson went on record yesterday saying that nothing is set in stone as far as Thole being the automatic starting catcher for the Mets in 2011. This would make signing a guy like Olivo even smarter since he can start if Thole isn’t hitting well. Also Olivo is right-handed which is something the Mets are sure to covet in a 2nd catcher since Thole is a lefty.

Bullpen – Chad Qualls, Jason Frasor, Brian Fuentes, Koji Uehara, Bobby Seay

Chad Qualls – Had a off year in 2010 posting a 7.32 era in 70 games. However he’s proven in the past he can be a good 7th inning/8th inning man. He did have 12 saves in 19 opportunities in 2010 so that’s also a plus.

Jason Frasor – Frasor is a very dependable pitcher and that has made him a mainstay of trade rumors over the past few trade deadlines and offseason’s. Posted a 3.68 era over 69 games for the Blue Jays in 2010. Also he logged 4 saves in 8 chances.

Koji Uehara – Former starting pitcher. The Orioles moved him to the pen in 2010 to which he responded pleasantly. Had a 2.86 era over 42 games. Also was the O’s closer for a good portion of the year in which he saved 13 games in 15 chances. He’d be a terrific candidate for the set-up role in Flushing.

Brian Fuentes – If Pedro Feliciano leaves in free agency, which is looking more and more likely everyday, Mets will need a new lefty reliever. Currently the Mets do not have any lefty relievers in the pen minus dare I say Oliver Perez. Signing Fuentes, who has been a successful closer over the years, to come be our main lefty reliever may be a stellar idea. Split 2010 between the Angels and Twins organizations to which he posted a combined 2.81 era in 48 games.

Bobby Seay – Another candidate like Fuentes to come in and replace Feliciano if he leaves in free agency. Seay missed the 2010 season coming off surgery to fix his torn rotator cuff in his left shoulder. Had a 4.25 era in 67 games during the 2009 season. Also may come cheap which is never a bad thing for a team with limited resources financially.

One of the issues with the Mets from the last few years is that if they had an issue, they went and bought it. They also addressed it one need at a time. Two years ago, well the bullpen was a problem, enter Francisco Rodriguez and JJ Putz. Then the following year they hit 95 home runs as a team, enter Jason Bay. They never addressed multiple needs that existed at once, it was just fix what the problem the year before was and assume the best from everything else you already have.

The Mets do not have the financial muscle that the team across town does, so they can’t afford to try to act like them and buy any need they have. Of course sometimes the Yankees buy something that isn’t even a need, but that’s a story for another day. Look at some of the model franchises, the Red Sox, the Angels, the Twins etc. How are they built? Primarily from within. The proper way to build a team, atleast in modern day baseball unless you have unlimited funds is to build from within.

It is a much more cost effective way to build. If you spend $10M on a draft, which is an absurdly high number, you still are $2M shy of what Oliver Perez made in 2010. I am not asking the Mets to be the top spender in the league in the draft/international free agency every year. But the fact that a huge market team like the Mets, who spend $130+ million per year on their major league team sits in the bottom of the barrel in draft/IFA spending is a complete joke. Part of that is the Wilpon’s wanting to adhere to Bud Selig’s slot recommendations, but I think part of it is management, which is fortunately changing.

Whoever the new GM is needs to sit Jeff Wilpon down and say to him, look what is happening here is not working. The fact you guys don’t spend on the draft is drastically hurting the long term health of the franchise. The proper way to build your organization is the polar opposite of what the Mets are doing. The Mets are buying their free agents, and making trades (Carlos Beltran, Johan Santana, K-Rod, Jason Bay etc) and supplementing their purchases with prospects (Ike Davis, Josh Thole etc). In reality, the better way to build is to build from your prospects and supplement them with your purchases.

I absolutely think the Mets should spend on the major league team, and be involved on all of the top free agents every year if they fit. But imagine having the ability to buy more than one very good free agent at a time? That could be accomplished by spending more on the draft and international free agency. Look at it this way: If you can have 2-3 guys in your starting rotation that are homegrown making near league minimum, how much more money does that provide for you to have to spend on the other members of the rotation and other spots? It certainly would stop you from dishing out silly deals like the one Oliver Perez received. The more talent you have that you produce yourself, the less commitments you have to make to outside players, which means less risk of a deal completely flopping in your face.

Of course not every prospect pans out. But that’s why you have to bring in good scouts with a good eye for talent, and trust them when they say player x is a sound investment at $300K. Let’s look at Erik Goeddel from the 2010 draft as an example. Jason Churchill of ESPN.com recently did an interview with Mike Diaz over at Mets Minor League Blog. In the interview he said about Goeddel that he was the most impressive arm that he saw on the UCLA Bruins last year, including likely top 3 pick in the 2011 draft, Gerrit Cole. Some think Goeddel ends up a closer type rather than a starter, but even if that’s the case, isn’t it a better investment with the $350K the Mets spent to sign Goeddel and develop their own good closer rather than giving out a contract like the one K-Rod received?

Are the Mets making progress in this area? Absolutely. I am seeing more and more youth infused into the team, especially in 2010, which is great. Now imagine they had more high level prospects? Ike Davis looks like he’ll be a fine player, you can find more Ike Davis types in the draft outside of round 1 even. Obviously the draft is a crapshoot, but the investment there long-term will be worth it. You’ll miss plenty, but when you do hit and produce that star, the dollar value he will be worth will be worth more than the entire draft you drafted him in. And then you don’t need to go pay $15M a year for it.

You can even win while making your farm grow. Look at the Red Sox, Angels, Twins. Every single year they are in the race, or the playoffs, and every single year their farm keeps improving. They have late picks, it’s all about having the right guys scouting (it all starts with a very strong scouting director), and being willing to spend when it fits. Of course you need your organizational fillers, and your guys who just project as back end starters etc, but if you can strategically spend in the draft, it’s more than worth your while. Look at what the Nationals did this year. AJ Cole, bonafide mid 1st round talent falls due to signability, and the Nats pay him even after giving out big $ to Bryce Harper.

I am not asking the team to every single round of the draft take the best player available, or every year in IFA sign the 3 best kids out there. Scout people, determine people who are worth spending on, and act on it. In the draft this is probably more often high school kids or draft eligible sophomores in college who will fall due to signability. Take some chances, and prepare to give the kids your scouts deem worth it some money. Then when you develop your own stars, you at that point can realize where you need to spend on outside players, and you can bring in the best of the best there. This is the way to build a powerhouse, and I hope whoever is named GM can implement a philiosophy similar to this.

There is little doubt that the Mets need a shake-up this offseason, starting with a new GM at the helm to rebuild this team. We can argue who should be the next GM, but that debate will be for another piece. I am sure internal candidates John Ricco and Wayne Krivsky will get a look, as long as some external candidates including ex-long time Padres GM and current Yankees assistant Kevin Towers. The next GM’s responsibility will be making sure Oliver Perez and Luis Castillo are not on this team, as well as figuring out this Francisco Rodriguez fiasco. Trading Carlos Beltran is also something that can be considered depending on what you can get in return, and how much money you have to eat to move his $18.5M expiring deal.

Even though the Mets have one playoff appearance in his tenure, and even though 2009(mainly injury based) and 2010 have been very bad years for the team, Omar Minaya does deserve some credit for the work he’s done while here as GM. Yes he’s given out his share of bad contracts, Luis Castillo, Oliver Perez, Julio Franco, Marlon Anderson, Orlando Hernandez, but he’s done some good things too. He put the Mets back on the map after multiple 70 win seasons, he made them relevant again.

Unfortunately the ship has sailed on Omar, and a new face is needed. But one thing Mets fans can look at from the possible end of Omar’s regime and be happy about is the fact that he’s kept all the prospects. For most people, when your job is on the line, you will do virtually anything to make sure you keep it. Fortunately Omar Minaya did not do this. He could’ve easily panicked and given Seattle Ike Davis,Jenrry Mejia and more for Cliff Lee, or given up Ruben Tejada and Bobby Parnell for Brett Myers, or given up Josh Thole and Bobby Parnell for Ted Lilly. But he didn’t.

I would assume if he is relieved of his GM title, he will be moved to a role of assistant GM and head of scouting or something like that. I will give him some credit for keeping this ever improving farm system in tact. He has certainly had his downsides as a GM, but he’s done plenty of good things that he will not get credit for because of the way the team has performed lately. One would think that the Wilpon’s definitely held Omar back from doing what he does best, which is the big move. When Omar was hired, all people talked about was how he loved making the big move. Now were 5 years later and he is making very few moves. That doesn’t sound like Omar Minaya to me.

I am in no way advocating a return as GM for Minaya. Between the lack of ability to speak to the media properly, and the fact the team, even if talented has gone nowhere since 2006. If he is let go as GM as expected, I think Mets fans should be able to look back at his tenure and say, you know, he didn’t actually do as bad a job as some like to think. He’s leaving the GM role with a farm system that is getting better and better, and a major league roster with star players, and young MLB ready talent. The Mets are very well built for the long haul, and a lot of credit does deserve to go to Omar Minaya.