There is an obvious lull in movement this off season due to the lack of finances that Sandy Alderson is permitted to work with. He did bring in guys like Frank Francisco, Jon Rauch, Ramon Ramirez and Andres Torres, but there’s a chance that most of those guys are traded for prospects before the 2012 season is complete. I thought now would be a good time to pick 3 legitimate prospects from the farm that can impact the 2012 Mets.

1. RHP Jeurys Familia – In 2012 between High-A St Lucie and Double-A Binghamton Familia started 23 games and posted an ERA of 2.90. In 124 innings he allowed 106 hits, 11 home runs and had a K/BB of 3.07 (132 K/43 BB). I saw Familia start in Double-A and came away impressed with his fastball that sat 93-95 and touched 97 three times. With a change in his delivery to be more upright I saw more downward plane on his slider and an improved but still below average change-up. He has the ceiling of a #3 starter but in my opinion his delivery and arsenal might be best suited for late inning relief duty. I still think his slider and change need more work to be the type of guy I call a lock down closer. I consider him a pretty safe bet to be a quality 8^th inning guy at the MLB level with the chance for more depending on how he improves. I see Familia starting in Triple-A and possibly being someone who can come up this year if there is a need in the rotation.

2. OF Kirk Nieuwenhuis – If Nieuwenhuis did not sustain the shoulder injury he did in 2011 there is a good chance we are talking about him as the center fielder for the 2012 Mets and chances are Andres Torres is not traded for. GM Sandy Alderson has come out and said that he feels Nieuwenhuis is about half a season away from being ready. I think that means if Torres does not perform like he should, Kirk could take over his job by the All Star Break. From what I have seen from Nieuwenhuis and what I have been told he is more or less average across the board tools wise. He is the type of guy I can see going 15/15 at the big league level. He does not have the arm for a corner and there’s question about his range to play center so he is a bit of a tweener. The way he plays the outfield reminds me a bit of Eric Byrnes who did man center for some time in Oakland. Nieuwenhuis is afraid of nothing and goes 110% after every ball. I’d put the likelihood of seeing him roaming center field at Citi Field this summer extremely high if he’s healthy.

3. 2B Reese Havens – PLEASE STAY HEALTHY KID. I have seen Reese Havens play in Binghamton the last two seasons and he is one of the most impressive hitters that I have seen as a B-Met in those couple years. He has a very smooth short stroke and barrels up the ball consistently. He drives the ball with authority all over the field and has a very good knowledge of the strike zone. Defensively I think the best you’re going to get is average, but he is comfortable around the bag turning the double play and makes all the plays he should. But he simply cannot stay healthy at all. Every year since being drafted he’s been hurt. The hope is that he will finally be healed from the surgery he had that shaved some rib off which was causing issues with his oblique. The Mets gave him the whole off season off to cure it and are confident he will come to camp ready to go. If that’s the case then I think it will be tough for the Mets to not have Havens up playing 2^nd base every day sooner than later. I have always felt Daniel Murphy was best in a role where he spot started all over the place and was a quality left handed bat off the bench. I do not have the confidence he can play 2^nd base full time and I am not a big Justin Turner fan. If you are a Mets fan you are praying for Havens’s healthy. If he is healthy and he gets some quality big league time he will open a ton of eyes around the league.

When you look on paper at the NL East it’s pretty easy to say that the Mets are destined to finish in last place, some even predicting 95+ losses. 2011’s last place finisher, the Marlins added Jose Reyes, Heath Bell and Mark Buehrle. The Phillies and Braves are still the top 2 in the division and the Nationals won 80 games and are heading up with prospects like Bryce Harper coming and the return of Stephen Strasburg.

 How about the Mets? Well they added Frank Francisco, Jon Rauch, Ramon Ramriez and Andres Torres. Doesn’t quite give you the excitement of the other teams does it? Fact is with the loss of Jose Reyes and the fact that who knows when/if Johan Santana will pitch in 2012 things seem to look pretty down. For 2012 to have a chance at success you need quite a few players to have career years, as well as someway somehow they have to keep their roster on the field for the most part.

 Do I think it’s possible the Mets can contend in 2012? I do not believe so. Can the Mets surprise people and win 80 games? Sure I’ll go with that. But that’s with everything breaking right. With all that said I think 2012 does have a chance to “excite” the fan base as Sandy Alderson said. I believe this year can excite the fan base because they have the possibility to see some players come to Queens from the ever improving farm system like Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Reese Havens, Jordany Valdespin, Jeurys Familia and maybe even Matt Harvey.

 The Mets farm is still considered to be in the 11-15 range or so among MLB clubs. This is a vast improvement over the years where they were considered to have among the top 5 WORST farm systems in the league. There are kids to be excited about in the system. You have Zack Wheeler, whom the Mets acquired for Carlos Beltran has the stuff and makeup of a #1 starter at the big league level. You then have 5 tool talents like 1^st rounder Brandon Nimmo and Cesar Puello. You also have other power arms like Harvey,Familia, Michael Fulmer, Jenrry Mejia and as a pen arm Jack Leathersich.

 The Mets are seemingly sacrificing spending on the big league team for the minor league side. Sandy Alderson predicted a payroll in the ~$100 million range for 2012, but that was including the draft/international free agency.

 It remains to be seen what the Mets draft/IFA spending cap will be under the new CBA, but I’d expect it to be similar or a little higher than the amount they spent in 2011 ($6.425 million). They select 12^th and also received two picks for losing Jose Reyes which have yet to be determined exactly where they will fall due to other compensation free agents yet to sign.

 The future looks bright in Flushing. If 2012 goes by the wayside and the Mets end up with a top 5 pick in 2013 then if they execute they will add more premium talent to the system. The hope in the organization is to build the Mets into a consistent contender. This all starts with the draft, with international free agency and trades of veterans for prospects. While I think 2012 will be a lost year in terms of the MLB team contending, it will be far from a lost year in terms of the long term health and success of the organization. Not only will more prospects be added via trades/draft/international free agency but you’ll see the current batch progress. That is exciting to me.

1. RHP Zack Wheeler – It’s really 1 and 1a with him and fellow righty Matt Harvey. I give Wheeler the edge due to the fact that he has 2 true plus strike out pitches in his fastball (which can touch 99 mph) and curve. He also throws a hard straight change and a slider. Both of those pitches are below average at this stage. There are some injury concerns in the delivery(inverted W, or I like to call it “M”) but he has legitimate top of the rotation starter potential.

2. RHP Matt Harvey – Harvey right now only has one plus pitch, and that’s the fastball. He has what would be rated as “average with flashes of better” with his curve and slider. He also throws a change-up which is below average right now. He doesn’t have any major injury concerns and has the upside of a plus fastball + 3 above average secondaries with above average command. That is the recipe for a quality #2 starter.

3. RHP Jeurys Familia – If there were an award for the most improved prospect it no debate would go to Familia. In 2010 Familia was a wild flamethrower struggling in High-A St Lucie. Fast forward to 2011 and with a mechanical change to make him more upright he breaks onto the scene. Coming into 2011 I thought best case scenario for Familia was a set up man type. Now I can view him as having potential as a starter in the middle of a contending rotation, or potentially as a closer. He supplements his mid 90’s fastball with an above average slider and a change-up that leaves some to be desired. Regardless of that Familia is now really on the prospect scene.

4. RHP Jenrry Mejia – Some people are dropping Mejia hard because he got Tommy John. I am not one of those. Mejia was a higher ranked prospect than Wheeler or Harvey and he got a surgery which has an extremely high success rate at this point in time. I personally view Mejia as a guy who is going to be a lights out closer rather than a starting pitcher given his repertoire and high level of effort in his delivery. Mejia mainly features a fastball, cutter, a curve and a change-up. Remember K-Rod was also groomed as a starting pitcher and was once #1 in the Angels system much like Mejia was for the Mets. As long as he is healthy Mejia has the upside of a #1/#2 starter and the downside as a very good late inning reliever.

5. OF Brandon Nimmo – Nimmo is the first 1st round pick for Paul DePodesta and the new Mets front office. Nimmo is from Wyoming where he couldn’t play high school ball, only Legion ball and showcases. Nimmo is an extremely raw player with phenomenal tools. He has a chance to be a legitimate middle of the order bat that can play a quality center field in Citi Field. This was a very high risk/high reward type pick for the Mets which is something you haven’t seen from them much in years past.

6. OF Kirk Nieuwenhuis – If Nieuwenhuis didn’t undergo shoulder surgery there’s a good chance that we would be talking about him opening up 2012 as the every-day RF for the big club to open 2012. Instead that honor goes to Lucas Duda. Nieuwenhuis is simply a baseball player. He doesn’t really have one plus tool, pretty average across the board. He can play some defense, hit some doubles, hit some homers, steal some bases and hit for a solid average. I think Kirk is a player that could give you 15 homers, 20 stolen bases and 30 doubles with solid defense. Not a bad prospect by any means, but lacks star potential.

7. RHP Michael Fulmer – The Mets took Fulmer with the supplemental first round pick they received as compensation for letting Pedro Feliciano go and not pitch for the Yankees. Fulmer was overshadowed by fellow Oklahoma prep studs Dylan Bundy (4th overall to Baltimore) and Archie Bradley (7th overall to Arizona) but Fulmer is a pretty exciting prospect himself. He features a fastball that can get up to 97 and a quality hammer curve. He needs to work on his change-up but with Fulmer and Nimmo the Mets’ first two picks present immense upside which wasn’t often something you saw done by the prior regimes.

8. 2B Reese Havens – If Havens didn’t get injured as often as he has he’d already be entrenched at second base for the Mets. I have seen Havens play 2B the last two years for Binghamton and I came away thinking he could be an average defensive second baseman at the MLB level. But the bat is what would carry him. He has a smooth short powerful stroke and puts the barrel on the ball consistently. He also has a good knowledge of the strike zone. If Havens could be healthy, which is a major if, you’re talking about a guy who’ll be among the top half as far as second basemen go in the entire league.

9. SS Wilmer Flores – I am not one of Wilmer Flores’s biggest fans. He has a great hit tool there is no debating that. There are big time questions if the power will ever come for Flores and he has a lot to be worked on as far as plate discipline, though that can be ironed out to some extent. Now defensively he has good hands and a solid arm so his best fit is likely at third base in pro ball. He literally is Bengie Molina slow which is weird given his frame. I just don’t see the star potential that others see. He is still young and can regain it with improvements but for me Flores’s stock is tumbling quick.

10. OF Cesar Puello – Puello accomplished what most have asked of him, which was to get that batting practice power into games. He did a better job of that hitting 10 home runs in the Florida State League in 2011. Negatives are he didn’t steal bags at the rate he did in 2010, and he had a putrid 1st half of the season. Puello OPS’d .642 pre-all star but OPS’d .800 post all star. He should go back to St Lucie for some more seasoning but Puello is one of few in the system with 5 tool potential. If his power keeps developing he could be a 20/20 guy who could play either center field or right field at an above average level in Citi Field.

11. SS/2B Jordany Valdespin – Valdespin also was much improved in 2011 from years past. He played in career high 134 games and OPS’d .801 with 37 SB’s. Work ethic issues are big for Valdespin. If Havens cannot be healthy you may see Valdespin at a middle infield spot in Queens at some point in 2012.

12. LHP Juan Urbina – 18 year old lefty with MLB bloodlines. Already possesses two above average pitches in his fastball and change-up. Has a consistent delivery, needs work on his breaking ball but possesses big upside.

13. RHP Akeel Morris – low H/9, high K/9, high BB/9. If he throws strikes he’s dominant. Has phenomenal stuff that just needs to be harnessed.

14. 3B Aderlin Rodriguez – biggest power bat in the system. Doesn’t do much else. Probably a 1B long term.

15. RHP Cory Mazzoni – 2011 2nd round pick with big assortment of pitches. #3 type starter upside.

16. RHP Logan Verrett – 2011 3rd round pick. Pitchability type, won’t blow you away. Don’t see him as much more than a #4 starter in the bigs.

17. OF Cory Vaughn – Toolsy outfielder who struggles with big time fastballs. Needs mechanical adjustment at the plate but could be a big league RF with some changes and improvements.

18. OF Juan Lagares – Former SS turned outfielder who has done nothing but hit in 2011, including at the Arizona Fall League. Likely addition to 40 man roster this off-season who likely won’t be a full time OF in the bigs could be a quality 4th OF.

19. LHP Darin Gorski – His stuff has trended upward while improving control led to a fantastic year for Gorski. 2.08 ERA in High-A with a 4.83 K/BB. He looks like a back end starter, but last year he was a non prospect so that’s a compliment.

20. OF Fernando Martinez – Let’s be real here, chances are Fernando Martinez will never be healthy. An absolutely phenomenal bat when he’s on the field will likely go to waste. But he is only 23 so I’ll give him one more year. Could be a trade candidate this off season.

21. OF Matt den Dekker – Best defensive outfielder in the system. If he could cut down the strike outs he might end up a solid regular in CF in the bigs. If he does not then you’re looking at a quality 4th outfielder. One of the best bets to be a MLB guy on this list.

22. LHP Jack Leathersich – 2011 5th round pick from UMass-Lowell. Lefty whom the Mets will likely use as a starter this year to build innings to prepare for a quick rise as a reliever. Out of the pen Leathersich can touch 98 with a solid slurve. He could end up a good back end reliever. Loved this pick in the 5th this year.

23. 3B Zach Lutz – Another bat who cannot stay healthy but can rake. Have been told he’s one of the top 3 best pure hitters in the Mets minors but is limited to 1B/3B, so barring a David Wright trade there isn’t much of an immediate role for Lutz.

24. RHP Greg Peavey – Doesn’t have a plus pitch, pretty average across the board. But good groundball rate and solid control could make for a back end of rotation major leaguer.

25. RHP Domingo Tapia – Tapia can throw pure gas. I have been told he’s touched 100 on the gun. His secondary pitches lack which is why he had a pedestrian 5.4 K/9. Improve on the secondaries in 2012 and Tapia will fly up this list.

Starting today I am going to work on a daily piece where I am going to give my early projections on how I foresee the Mets arranging their minor league lineups and rotations. I will also throw in some bullpen arms that I think will be in each affiliates bullpen, but with so many bullpen spots in the minors it’s near impossible to predict exactly how it will fully shake out. I am going to only cover the full season ball teams, and I will start in Triple-A Buffalo which looks like it will be an extremely strong offensive team with some good pitching too. Here is my prediction for Buffalo’s Opening Day lineup:

1. Ruben Tejada – SS – Terry Collins said Tejada will be playing exclusively shortstop in AAA.
2. Kirk Nieuwenhuis – CF – Had rough go in first stint in AAA, but expect him to hit well and he very well could get a call up by mid-season if injuries occur.
3. Fernando Martinez – LF – Will he ever be healthy? If so you can expect big numbers from him here, and a likely call-up at some point during 2011.
4. Lucas Duda – 1B – Will also play some corner outfield to improve versatility, but I expect him to mow through the International League again.
5. Zach Lutz – 3B – Was once told that Lutz is one of, if not the best pure hitter in the organization but is never healthy enough to show it. Can really only play 1B/3B so he may be blocked in this organization.
6. Justin Turner – 2B – Like him and Russ Adams to play a lot here, and Turner will also DH some I’m sure. He has dominated throughout his minor league career, if there’s an injury up the middle there is a chance he could get a call.
7. Josh Satin – DH – I think they will really work on his versatility this year, and he will DH too because he can hit. I think he will be a productive utility guy very soon.
8. Jason Pridie – RF – Will try to prove he’s over the injuries in 2010 and regain that very strong 4th OF form that people projected of him.
9. Raul Chavez – C – Mike Nickeas will take this job once Ronny Paulino’s PED suspension is up. They simply need someone good to catch and handle the few young arms that will be in Buffalo’s rotation.

This lineup has a chance to lead the IL in almost every offensive category. It is an extremely strong AAA lineup top to bottom, and has guys that if injuries occur I am comfortable with them stepping up to the big league team and being able to contribute there.

Tomorrow: Buffalo’s Starting Rotation. Special thanks to PSL2F contributor Tejesh Patel, also of Mets Prospect Hub for his input on these projections.

Even before Johan Santana underwent surgery on his shoulder, it was known that this offseason the Mets would need to add a starting pitcher. With new GM Sandy Alderson deeming it unlikely that the team pursues any big-time free agents due to current financial commitments, the only possibilities are trade or banking on a bounce back year from a free agent on a cheap incentive laden 1 year deal. Some players possibly fitting the latter mold would include Javier Vazquez, Jeremy Bonderman, and Aaron Harang.

While I think any of those arms would do OK in the rotation, why not aim bigger? And that doesn’t even mean a major financial commitment ala Cliff Lee. If I am Alderson, I am in Tampa Bay’s GM Andrew Friedman’s ear all winter to try to obtain one of James Shields or Matt Garza. Both different, but yet quality pitchers that I think could be solid #2 types in the NL. Obviously the cost for either would not be low, though Shields I am sure would cost less in talent. So that’s why I’d lean more towards him.

Don’t let the 5 ERA fool you. With a guy like Shields who throws a ton of strikes, baseballs are going to be put in play. But are the numbers for 2010 a bit of an anomaly? Shields possesses a career BAA of .270, and career WHIP of 1.28. In 2010 though, he had a BAA of .294, and WHIP of 1.46, both substantially higher than his career norm. And with him being 28, turning 29, it’s unlikely that this is a sign of decline. Especially given that per fangraphs, his average fastball velocity was actually up roughly 1 MPH, and his K rate jumped roughly 1.5/9.

Another sign of him having bad luck: Shields’s BABIP (batting average on balls in play) was an astounding .354. This is partially his fault though, as his line drive % was a career high 23.4%, up from his around league average career 19% mark. But either way, a BABIP 60 points higher than your BAA is a bit extreme. On the negative for Shields though, his HR/FB was 13.8%, up 2.6% from 2009. Shields has always been a flyball pitcher, and I think any statistic related to home runs with him would decrease with a change to the NL, and to Citi Field.

Of course with Tampa being a very sabermetric based organization, they know all this, and the value for Shields will be made accordingly. I don’t think you can get him that cheaply, but advanced statistics suggest Shields should have been better than he was, and he is a consistent 200 IP inning arm, which cannot be undervalued. As far as prospects go, Jenrry Mejia, Wilmer Flores, and Matt Harvey(though he can’t be traded anyway other than as a PTBNL) are unavailable for me. But if they need a deal based around Kirk Nieuwenhuis, it’d be something I heavily consider due to the Mets having good outfield depth in the minors, and the financial wherewithal after this season to go spend on an outfielder if the need is dire. And I don’t see Nieuwenhuis as a future star, so it’s a piece I can live without. I know everyone wants as much homegrown talent as possible, me included. But sometimes you need an outsider like Alderson to realize that it’s possible some of the Mets prospects are overvalued in the organization.

With Santana unlikely to be ready for Opening Day, you can run out an Opening Day rotation of Mike Pelfrey-James Shields-Jon Niese-RA Dickey-Dillon Gee. Yes, doesn’t look too promising, but then when Santana comes back, you have Santana-Pelfrey-Shields-Niese-Dickey which looks a lot better. Or if you feel Santana will be out an extended period of time, you can get Shields and also one of the cheap incentive laden guys I mentioned above and have Gee as depth. There are so many possible routes for Alderson to take, I am curious to see what he does with limited financial resources for this offseason.

I had the chance to catch up with Mike Harrington of http://www.buffalonews.com. He has a blog on the site where he does coverage of the Buffalo Bisons, the Triple-A team of the Mets. You can check out his blog at blogs.buffalonews.com/insidepitch. Mike was willing to answer a few questions about some of the Bisons players.

St Lucie to Flushing: To say Lucas Duda has been good for the Bisons would be an extreme understatement. He’s been tearing the cover off the ball all year, especially in Buffalo. What do you like about Duda offensively, and how much progress has he made defensively?

Mike Harrington: I like the fact he’s not going around thinking he’s a home run hitter. He’s not pull happy. And he’s showing the ability to adjust. After a few weeks of Triple-A, I was figuring, ‘Well, as soon as he sees the breaking balls, he’ll go into a slump.’ Wrong. He’s waited on balls and continued to hit after one tiny little dive for a few games. We have not had a player come through Buffalo in the middle of the season and have this kind of impact since Jeff Manto in 1997. Project Duda’s numbers out to a full Triple-A season and they’re eye-popping. Easily the biggest surprise of the entire minor-league system this year. He’s gotten better defensively too. He was below-average at first when he first got here, making some bad, bad reads on balls in LF. But I know he’s worked hard with Jack Voigt and we’ve seen improvement in that area. He will have to continue to work hard there.

St Lucie to Flushing: After putting up some very good numbers in AA, Kirk Nieuwenhuis got the call to Buffalo. You have also seen Fernando Martinez play .. There is debate as to who the top OF prospect in the system is. Which of the two would you give the edge to and why?

Mike Harrington: I never understood all this heaping praise about FMart. He was THE top prospect the Mets pushed upon Buffalo when they got here but I’ve seen 15 guys in the Cleveland years who were better. If this kid was the top prospect, they had a lean system and ’09 here sure showed that. He’s certainly got talent shouldn’t a great prospect not be languishing to hit .250 in Triple-A? Is he bored being here? He’s done very little to show he should be in the major leagues other than being on prospect lists. Nieuwenhuis I’ve seen very little of, to be honest. They’ve been on the road a lot and I missed a homestand on another assignment. But they’re high on him and he’s played a nice CF. Has to hit more. Right now, both guys are fringe at best.

St Lucie to Flushing: Chad Cordero was signed to Buffalo. From what you’ve seen do you think he’s someone that could help out a major league bullpen at this stage in his career?

Mike Harrington: So far, so good. Nice flier by the Mets. These shoulder things can take 2-3 years sometimes to feel better. Looks pretty free and easy and is getting results. The Mets’ big improvement has been spotting older talent this year to help Buffalo (think Dickey, Hessman, Cervenak, Padilla, House, Pascucci). This might be another to that list.

St Lucie to Flushing: Dillon Gee has had a solid year there, and will likely set the Bisons strikeout record tonight..could he be a back end started at the MLB level, and is this k rate a mirage? Or has their been improvements you’ve noticed throughout the year?

Mike Harrington: He could definitely be a No 4-5 starter in the big leagues. The K rate is no mirage when you’re talking this many starts. And his season looks a whole lot better when you take away June, when he just got hit hard and often. Seemed like he got mentally sidetracked when he took the loss against Strasburg, like he was disapppointed he didn’t put on a better show that day and it carried over. He’s been a workhorse in July and August. Sneaky fastball, better breaking pitches. He’ll get a couple September starts for the Mets.

St Lucie to Flushing: Nick Evans has been bounced around a bit. AA,MLB,AAA..some think he’s getting the shaft a bit by the big team..do you see him as someone who can contribute at the big league level even if only in a part time/platoon situation ?

Mike Harrington: Evans can contribute for sure in the big leagues at some point. I think it was VERY important for him to come to Buffalo and contribute this year. That 7 for 75 at the start of last year just hung over everything. Good idea by the Mets to stash him at Bingo, let him thrive there and maybe get a big-league callup before he came to Buffalo in ’10. He’s been very good here, the way we frankly expected him to be last April.

I’d like to thank Mike for his time, and if you are interested you can also follow on on Twitter @BNHarrington