Starting today I am going to work on a daily piece where I am going to give my early projections on how I foresee the Mets arranging their minor league lineups and rotations. I will also throw in some bullpen arms that I think will be in each affiliates bullpen, but with so many bullpen spots in the minors it’s near impossible to predict exactly how it will fully shake out. I am going to only cover the full season ball teams, and I will start in Triple-A Buffalo which looks like it will be an extremely strong offensive team with some good pitching too. Here is my prediction for Buffalo’s Opening Day lineup:

1. Ruben Tejada – SS – Terry Collins said Tejada will be playing exclusively shortstop in AAA.
2. Kirk Nieuwenhuis – CF – Had rough go in first stint in AAA, but expect him to hit well and he very well could get a call up by mid-season if injuries occur.
3. Fernando Martinez – LF – Will he ever be healthy? If so you can expect big numbers from him here, and a likely call-up at some point during 2011.
4. Lucas Duda – 1B – Will also play some corner outfield to improve versatility, but I expect him to mow through the International League again.
5. Zach Lutz – 3B – Was once told that Lutz is one of, if not the best pure hitter in the organization but is never healthy enough to show it. Can really only play 1B/3B so he may be blocked in this organization.
6. Justin Turner – 2B – Like him and Russ Adams to play a lot here, and Turner will also DH some I’m sure. He has dominated throughout his minor league career, if there’s an injury up the middle there is a chance he could get a call.
7. Josh Satin – DH – I think they will really work on his versatility this year, and he will DH too because he can hit. I think he will be a productive utility guy very soon.
8. Jason Pridie – RF – Will try to prove he’s over the injuries in 2010 and regain that very strong 4th OF form that people projected of him.
9. Raul Chavez – C – Mike Nickeas will take this job once Ronny Paulino’s PED suspension is up. They simply need someone good to catch and handle the few young arms that will be in Buffalo’s rotation.

This lineup has a chance to lead the IL in almost every offensive category. It is an extremely strong AAA lineup top to bottom, and has guys that if injuries occur I am comfortable with them stepping up to the big league team and being able to contribute there.

Tomorrow: Buffalo’s Starting Rotation. Special thanks to PSL2F contributor Tejesh Patel, also of Mets Prospect Hub for his input on these projections.

By my estimations, this is the 25-man roster I could see the Mets going into 2011 with if the season started tomorrow -

Starting Lineup – Jose Reyes, Angel Pagan, David Wright, Carlos Beltran, Ike Davis, Jason Bay, Josh Thole, Daniel Murphy.

Bench – Ronny Paulino, Brad Emaus, Luis Castillo, Luis Hernandez, Lucas Duda.

Starting Rotation – Mike Pelfrey, Jon Niese, R.A. Dickey, Chris Capuano, Dillon Gee.

Bullpen – Oliver Perez, Manny Acosta, Taylor Buchholz, Pat Misch, D.J. Carrasco, Bobby Parnell, Francisco Rodriguez.

Of those 25 players, the ones I see most likely being replaced by opening day are Luis Castillo, Luis Hernandez, Lucas Duda, Dillon Gee, Oliver Perez, and Pat Misch. Thats 6 spots that are subject to change depending on moves made from now until opening day as well as camp battles that will unfold.

Sandy Alderson will most likely sign one more starting pitcher. My bet is still on Chris Young. So stick Dillon Gee in AAA as insurance. Also expect Alderson to sign a lefty reliever eventually. Right now he’s in wait-mode to see which one of his choices price drops the lowest. Names like Tim Byrdak, Clay Rapada, Taylor Tankersley, Ron Mahay, Joe Beimel, Will Ohman, and Dennys Reyes are all possibilities. A 4th Outfielder is also a possibility for a bargain bin signing eventually. I have extreme doubts the Mets plan to use Lucas Duda in that role to start the season.

Camp Battles are also going to have an affect on the final 25-man roster. Daniel Murphy, Brad Emaus, Luis Hernandez, Luis Castillo, and Chin-Lung Hu will all compete for the 2B job in spring training. I see only 2-3 of those guys actually making the roster. I see Lucas Duda and Fernando Martinez competing for the 4th OF job if the Mets don’t sign anyone. Terry Collins has already gone on record saying he will give F-Mart a shot at winning the job in the Spring. I see no chance in hell that Oliver Perez makes the opening day roster. He’s pitched awful over the winter and shows no sign of improving anytime soon. Pat Misch will probably find him himself in AAA as insurance or waived. However if we sign just one more SP and a Lefty Reliever, then theres a chance Misch or Perez makes the team as the 25th man in a Long Reliever position since Gee will be sent to AAA. My money would be on Misch winning that battle.

Either way the 25-man roster is far from set. Over 20% of the roster is in question going into camp. Lot’s of fun battles are likely to unfold over Spring. It’s going to be a lot of fun to watch.

The fun time of the year is almost here..September call ups! It’s the time of the year where teams can expand their MLB roster to 40 (only including players on their 40 man roster) for the month of September. It’s a great time for a team like the Mets, who are seemingly out of it to get a look at some young kids, and see if they have anything to offer for 2011. Their 40 man roster right now is at 39 per mets.com. You can 60 day DL John Maine and even Jason Bay if you think he’s done for the year. You could also Designate any of Omir Santos,Tobi Stoner,Jason Pridie. Here are some players that I think merit consideration for a call up that are not on the 40 man roster, and why.

1B/OF Lucas Duda
Stats between AA/AAA: .309 AVG .402 OBP .590 SLG .922 OPS 38 2B 23 HR 87 RBI 55/75 BB/K

Duda would require a 40 man spot, but the guy has more than deserved the call-up. He is also a guy whom after 2010 you would have to add to the 40 man roster anyway to protect him from the Rule V draft. He is someone that no doubt can be a part of the 2011 bench, probably taking the role Chris Carter holds. He is someone who I think could be a very useful piece, and I think he will get the call up in September. I really look forward to seeing him get some playing time with Jason Bay out.

RHP Dillon Gee
AAA Stats: 13-7 4.87 ERA 151.2 IP 161 H 22 HR 36 BB 150 K .272 BAA

Despite the love Gee seems to be getting by the fanbase, outside of the strikeouts he really did not have an impressive year. He’s like Duda in the sense they both need to be protected after this year or be eligible for the Rule V draft. Gee is nothing to write home about, likely a #5 starter type in the bigs, but it’s good to keep those kind of guys around. I doubt he’d get any starts in September, but he can come up and give you some innings out of the pen.

OF Kirk Nieuwenhuis
Combined AA/AAA Stats: .279 AVG .331 OBP .490 SLG .821 OPS 40 2B 17 HR 73 RBI 13 SB 37/112 BB/K

Many consider Nieuwenhuis the Mets top outfield prospect at this point. His extremely poor start in AAA has put a bit of a damper on his season stats as he was performing well in AA. To put it in perspective, his OPS in AA was 186 points higher than it’s been in the 16 AAA games he’s been in. I’d be rather surprised if he gets a September call-up, but given his level of being a prospect in the organization and the fact that he performed very well at AA could somehow sneak him in there for September. I’d guess no and he’ll be a non-roster invite to spring training and possibly make his debut mid 2011.

RHP Chad Cordero
Stats with Buffalo: 1-1 2.61 ERA 10.1 IP 10 H 0 HR 5 BB 7 K .263 BAA

When I spoke to Mike Harrington at the Buffalo News about Cordero, he told me Cordero finally looks free and easy, and pointed out how it sometimes can take 2-3 years to get back from a major shoulder injury. Cordero was once an All Star closer for the Nationals and is 28 years old now. He could be the kind of guy that you give a look at in September and give him a chance to pitch some middle relief and see if you could potentially have someone you can bring in to camp next year to compete for a roster spot. I won’t feel bad if he is eating some of Elmer Dessens’s innings.

LHP Mike O’Connor
Stats for Buffalo: 4-1 2.43 ERA 63 IP 58 H 5 HR 15 BB 63 K .245 BAA

Probably the least likely of the guys mentioned to get the call, but he’s had a very good year for Buffalo after signing with the Mets as a minor league free agent. He’s a lefty with reverse splits(.263 BAA vs LHH and .232 vs RHH) but he could be an interesting lefty to come in and mop up a bit. I doubt they would waste a 40 man roster spot on him, but he atleast should get some recognition for the work he’s done in Triple-A this year, so I will give him the recognition here.

I won’t speak on them, but odds are you will see most healthy members of the 40 man up for September. That means Sean Green,Jenrry Mejia (to start I hope!),Raul Valdes,Nick Evans,Justin Turner,and Fernando Martinez when healthy should all get the call to add some roster depth.

The Week that Was

Buffalo Bisons: Overall (68-56, 6 games behind Scranton for first in the Northern Division, 2 games behind Louisville for the wildcard) 5-2 on the week, won 4 in a row

Lucas Duda continues to be the story here for the Bisons, as he simply has not stopped hitting for the Bisons. This last week (8/13 to 8/20), Duda hit .321/.406/.643/1.049, going 9 for 28 with 3 doubles, 2 homers, 7 RBI and 4 walks. He’s hitting .318/.389/.650/1.039 in Buffalo over 57 games, with 17 doubles, 2 triples and 17 homers in 217 ABs. The Bisons are 14-3 this month to get back into the playoff hunt, sitting 2 games out in the wild card race at the end of play yesterday.

Duda was drafted in the 7th round of the otherwise (mostly) horrible 2007 draft, 243rd overall out of USC and has slowly advanced through the system, not putting up spectacular numbers anywhere until this season. He started off in Brooklyn in 2007 (.299/.398/.462/.859), then spent 2008 in St. Lucie (.263/.358/.398/.755), 2009 in Binghamton (.281/.380/.428/.808), before opening 2010 back in Binghamton and exploding (.286/.411/.503/.914) and earning a callup to Buffalo, where he’s done nothing but oblierate baseballs and make opposing pitchers cry. Duda should be in line for a September promotion, since he’s got to be protected this winter from the Rule V draft (it’s 2006 HS and 2007 college this year).

Binghamton Mets: Overall (60-63; 14 games out of first place, 10.5 out of a playoff spot), 4-2 on the week, lost 1 in a row

Josh Satin, while not a prospect per se, has entered his name into the mix for a bench spot in 2011 with an outstanding 2010 split between St. Lucie and Binghamton. Much like Lucas Duda, Satin has improved after being promoted to the higher league, with a .323/.414/.493/.907 line in Binghamton (21 doubles, 5 homers), after a .316/.406/.459/.865 line in St. Lucie (15 doubles, 5 homers). Satin took it to the next level this past week, hitting .360/.452/.720/1.172 over the last 7 days, on 9 for 25. Satin can play 3b, 2b and 1b, and should be asked to go play outfield in the AFL this winter to further broaden his utility (that’s just my suggestion, not any inside info).

Satin was drafted (some would say overdrafted…namely me) in the 6th round of the 2008 draft and spent the bulk of his first season in Brooklyn, helping them win with a .280/.350/.462/.812 line. Despite this, he spent 2009 mostly in Savannah, due to the immortal duo of Hector Pellot and Greg Veloz “blocking” second base in St. Lucie. In Savannah, Satin his .284/.385/.418/.803 while mostly DHing. He opened this season in St. Lucie, before being promoted halfway through to Binghamton. Satin is someone to watch for to get a surprise look next spring at a bench job, or someone who will get an early callup from Buffalo.

St. Lucie Mets: Overall (55-68, 14.5 games out of first place) 3-5 on the week, lost 1 in a row.

The Mets hottest player over the last week has been Jeurys Familia, who has endured a horrific season for the Mets, coming into August his ERA was well over 6, but he has turned it around late. Officially, he’s only gotten one start this week, and it was a good one, he allowed 2 runs on 5 hits over 6.2 innings with 12 strikeouts for his 4th win of the season. Familia had an awful outing to open his month (5 earned in 5 innings), but his last 3 starts, he’s gone 20.1 innings, and allowed 16 hits and 6 walks with 30 strikeouts, and a sparkling 1.33 era.

Familia was signed as an International Free Agent during the 2007 season, and opened his career in the GCL as an 18 year old, where he went 2-2 with a 2.79 era in 11 starts (51.2 innings). Familia spent 2009 in Savannah where he posted a 10-6 record with a 2.69 era in 24 starts, spanning 134 innings.

Second to Familia is Richard Lucas, who basically jumped from Kingsport to St. Lucie, and has similarly struggled mightily there. However, in the last week, Lucas hit very well, with a .321/.387/.464/.851 line, on 9 for 28.

Savannah Sand Gnats: Overall (65-58, 5.5 games out of first place, were first half division winners) 4-3 on the week, won 1 in a row

Brooklyn Cyclones: Overall (40-20, 7 games up on Aberdeen in the McNamara division) 4-2 on the week, won 2 in a row

Kingsport Mets: Overall (24-31, 12 game out of first place) 1-5 on the week, lost 1 in a row?

I had the chance to catch up with Mike Harrington of http://www.buffalonews.com. He has a blog on the site where he does coverage of the Buffalo Bisons, the Triple-A team of the Mets. You can check out his blog at blogs.buffalonews.com/insidepitch. Mike was willing to answer a few questions about some of the Bisons players.

St Lucie to Flushing: To say Lucas Duda has been good for the Bisons would be an extreme understatement. He’s been tearing the cover off the ball all year, especially in Buffalo. What do you like about Duda offensively, and how much progress has he made defensively?

Mike Harrington: I like the fact he’s not going around thinking he’s a home run hitter. He’s not pull happy. And he’s showing the ability to adjust. After a few weeks of Triple-A, I was figuring, ‘Well, as soon as he sees the breaking balls, he’ll go into a slump.’ Wrong. He’s waited on balls and continued to hit after one tiny little dive for a few games. We have not had a player come through Buffalo in the middle of the season and have this kind of impact since Jeff Manto in 1997. Project Duda’s numbers out to a full Triple-A season and they’re eye-popping. Easily the biggest surprise of the entire minor-league system this year. He’s gotten better defensively too. He was below-average at first when he first got here, making some bad, bad reads on balls in LF. But I know he’s worked hard with Jack Voigt and we’ve seen improvement in that area. He will have to continue to work hard there.

St Lucie to Flushing: After putting up some very good numbers in AA, Kirk Nieuwenhuis got the call to Buffalo. You have also seen Fernando Martinez play .. There is debate as to who the top OF prospect in the system is. Which of the two would you give the edge to and why?

Mike Harrington: I never understood all this heaping praise about FMart. He was THE top prospect the Mets pushed upon Buffalo when they got here but I’ve seen 15 guys in the Cleveland years who were better. If this kid was the top prospect, they had a lean system and ’09 here sure showed that. He’s certainly got talent shouldn’t a great prospect not be languishing to hit .250 in Triple-A? Is he bored being here? He’s done very little to show he should be in the major leagues other than being on prospect lists. Nieuwenhuis I’ve seen very little of, to be honest. They’ve been on the road a lot and I missed a homestand on another assignment. But they’re high on him and he’s played a nice CF. Has to hit more. Right now, both guys are fringe at best.

St Lucie to Flushing: Chad Cordero was signed to Buffalo. From what you’ve seen do you think he’s someone that could help out a major league bullpen at this stage in his career?

Mike Harrington: So far, so good. Nice flier by the Mets. These shoulder things can take 2-3 years sometimes to feel better. Looks pretty free and easy and is getting results. The Mets’ big improvement has been spotting older talent this year to help Buffalo (think Dickey, Hessman, Cervenak, Padilla, House, Pascucci). This might be another to that list.

St Lucie to Flushing: Dillon Gee has had a solid year there, and will likely set the Bisons strikeout record tonight..could he be a back end started at the MLB level, and is this k rate a mirage? Or has their been improvements you’ve noticed throughout the year?

Mike Harrington: He could definitely be a No 4-5 starter in the big leagues. The K rate is no mirage when you’re talking this many starts. And his season looks a whole lot better when you take away June, when he just got hit hard and often. Seemed like he got mentally sidetracked when he took the loss against Strasburg, like he was disapppointed he didn’t put on a better show that day and it carried over. He’s been a workhorse in July and August. Sneaky fastball, better breaking pitches. He’ll get a couple September starts for the Mets.

St Lucie to Flushing: Nick Evans has been bounced around a bit. AA,MLB,AAA..some think he’s getting the shaft a bit by the big team..do you see him as someone who can contribute at the big league level even if only in a part time/platoon situation ?

Mike Harrington: Evans can contribute for sure in the big leagues at some point. I think it was VERY important for him to come to Buffalo and contribute this year. That 7 for 75 at the start of last year just hung over everything. Good idea by the Mets to stash him at Bingo, let him thrive there and maybe get a big-league callup before he came to Buffalo in ’10. He’s been very good here, the way we frankly expected him to be last April.

I’d like to thank Mike for his time, and if you are interested you can also follow on on Twitter @BNHarrington

As a Mets fan, the phrase you find yourself saying year after year is "There’s always next year." Unfortunately 2010 is no different. On paper the Mets looked promising, as always, but just couldn’t put it all together on the field. I’m not saying the year is over just yet, believe me I still "Believe". But the fact is the Mets are currently 1 game under .500 with a record of 59-60, 8.5 games out of the wild card, and a whopping 11 games out of the division. If there is any hope it hangs by a thin thread.

Realistically this is a good time to start looking toward the future of our beloved Mets. After analyzing the Mets farm system, as well as talking to minor league expert and fellow writer Joe DeMayo, I have come to the conclusion that the Mets future looks bright.  From the very early stages of the Mets Minor League system there is tons of young talent. It is very possible that the Mets have the deepest system in the NL East.

Let’s start at the beginning, the GCL Mets (Rookie Ball). Last year the Mets did not own a first round pick, instead their highest pick fell in the 2nd round where they selected Steve Matz. Signability dropped him all the way to the second round as well as a few arm issues (which would later lead to surgery). But the talent is still there and many scouts believe Matz may have a very bright future in the MLB. The GCL Mets also boast a few 2010 draft picks in Erik Goeddel as well as Akeel Morris. Juan Urbina, son of former MLB pitcher Ugueth Urbina, also plays for the GCL Mets. No, he does not carry a machete. Francisco Pena, son of Yankees coach Tony Pena, is rehabbing with the GCL Mets and still loosely considered a prospect by some.

The Kingsport Mets boast prospects such as talented outfielder Javier Rodriguez and third basemen Aderlin Rodriguez. Javier Rodriguez was a 2009 draft pick of the Mets. Aderlin Rodriguez was the top International signing of 2008 by the Mets.

Now we travel to Brooklyn, where tons of talent is waiting in the wings. We have 2010 draft picks in outfielder Cory Vaughn and catcher Blake Forsythe. 2007 IFA signee Wilfredo Tovar is an infielder for the Cyclones, as well as 2009 4th round pick Darrell Ceciliani, who plays outfield. Wally Backman has done an extraordinary job managing the team and teaching these young players. Here’s to hoping he’s catching some attention of the front office of a team only miles away.

Savannah is the next stop. In Savannah you will see such names as catcher Dock Doyle, third basemen Jefry Marte, infielder/DH Robbie Shields, speedster outfielder Cesar Puello, and outfielder and 2010 Draft Pick Matt Den Dekker. Den Dekker has been a personal favorite of mine ever since I saw him make that "Willy Mays" style catch that grabbed the #1 spot on ESPN Top Plays last month. If you haven’t seen it yet it’s a must see.

The St. Lucie Mets are very pitching deep as far as prospects go. They have such pitchers as Kyle Allen, Jeurys Familia, Scott Moviel, Brant Rustich, and Brad Holt. All of which are considered to be among the Mets best prospects pitching wise. St. Lucie also has a prospect which some of you may recognize the name of in Wilmer Flores. Flores is considered by many, including myself, to be the Mets #1 prospect. He’s an infielder currently but a move to the outfield is probably in his future if he is to stay with the Mets due to his expected body growth. He has drawn many comparisons to Detroit Tigers first basemen and 2010 Triple Crown Candidate, Miguel Cabrera.

The Binghamton Mets, or as some know them as the "B-Mets" are also very pitching deep. The B-Mets have pitching prospect Jenrry Mejia, who we got a taste of as a RP in Flushing earlier this year. He’s currently stretching out to become a starting pitcher again in hopes of joining the rotation in Flushing sometime next season. The B-Mets also have pitchers such as Robert Carson, Mark Cohoon, Eddie Kunz, Roy Merritt and Eric Niesen to name a few. The B-Mets also have two of the Mets top position prospects in second basemen Reese Havens and third basemen Zach Lutz. Both are having terrific seasons, though both have had a few injury problems here and there.  Carlos Guzman, Jonathan Malo, Sean Ratliff, and Jose Coronado are also names to pay attention too.

Last but not least we have the Mets highest ranking minor league system, the Buffalo Bisons. Pitching wise the Bisons have a few names that some of you may recognize such as Dillon Gee and Tobi Stoner. Both of those guys are probably 1a and 1b as far as spot starters are concerned if the Mets are in need and call to Buffalo. A name you may not recognize however is Mike Antonini. He is a lefty starter in Buffalo who is having himself a decent year and may ever garner himself a September call-up this season. As far as position players go in Buffalo you see such names as Nick Evans, who has been in Flushing many times over the past few seasons. You have outfielder Kirk Nieuwenhuis, who many believe may have a future as a starting outfielder in the big leagues. Also there is another outfielder named Lucas Duda who has put up some serious numbers in AAA this year and is also considered to be a likely September call-up this season for the Mets.

Do the Mets have the deepest farm system in the NL East? That’s up for argument no matter who you ask. Adam Rubin of ESPN NEW YORK has said he’s talked to scouts who do indeed believe that. These scouts feel that the Mets have the deepest farm system in the division. However other scouts may say it’s the Nationals, some may say the Marlins, some the Braves, and the crazy one’s may even say Philly, even though they have traded all there prospects over the last year in deals for Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, and Roy Halladay.

One thing is clear however, the Mets have a very deep farm system no matter how you look at it. Is it the deepest? Who knows. Either way the future appears to be bright in Flushing.