Oh the fun of spring training. On April 1 we will all look back at March 15th and laugh at the fact that it was reported that day that Luis Hernandez will be named the second baseman for the New York Mets. Not only is he, well, not good, but every single competitor is better off being the second baseman than him. Yes even Luis Castillo. No offense to the New York Post, but I simply cannot buy into this story.

Terry Collins has said all spring that second base is an offensive position now. Well if that’s the case how can you possibly even remotely consider Luis Hernandez? Not only is his limited MLB sample size awful (.245/.286/.298), but his 3,324 at bat minor league stats are pretty poor (.255/.302/.331). Hernandez is out of options, I bet if he doesn’t make the team nobody even claims him on waivers.

It is apparent Justin Turner probably will go to AAA due to having options. It’s looking more and more like Luis Castillo will be released. Daniel Murphy simply cannot in any way handle the position, and probably will be your utility lefty bat off the bench. This leaves you with one guy, Brad Emaus.

Emaus, the Rule V pick from the Blue Jays hasn’t performed much as of yet in spring training. But let’s not overreact about spring training stats. If that were the case let’s all flip out about David Wright’s .100 batting average. I think with more play Emaus will improve. And frankly given the state of the team, why not try Emaus?

If you opt not to start him, Toronto will surely take him back. Why not give the young kid with some projectability to go with solid minor league stats (career .276/.364/.426 slash line). Sure, Emaus may stink up the place to start the year. But given his offensive skill-set it is worth a gamble. He has some power, has a fantastic eye and actually has a chance to be a long-term option at the position. None of the other competitors to me have that possibility.

I think given the team that is being fielded, you have the opportunity where you can take a risk that Emaus ends up being even decent. Would you take a .270/.350 10-12 home run bat at the 7 or 8 spot? That is the kind of offensive season I could see Emaus putting up. If Collins is true to his word that second is an offensive position, then Emaus or Turner are probably the best options. Given Turner’s options, give Emaus a look. Worst case scenario you send him back and you still have Turner, Murphy, or heck even Ruben Tejada to fill in.

By my estimations, this is the 25-man roster I could see the Mets going into 2011 with if the season started tomorrow -

Starting Lineup – Jose Reyes, Angel Pagan, David Wright, Carlos Beltran, Ike Davis, Jason Bay, Josh Thole, Daniel Murphy.

Bench – Ronny Paulino, Brad Emaus, Luis Castillo, Luis Hernandez, Lucas Duda.

Starting Rotation – Mike Pelfrey, Jon Niese, R.A. Dickey, Chris Capuano, Dillon Gee.

Bullpen – Oliver Perez, Manny Acosta, Taylor Buchholz, Pat Misch, D.J. Carrasco, Bobby Parnell, Francisco Rodriguez.

Of those 25 players, the ones I see most likely being replaced by opening day are Luis Castillo, Luis Hernandez, Lucas Duda, Dillon Gee, Oliver Perez, and Pat Misch. Thats 6 spots that are subject to change depending on moves made from now until opening day as well as camp battles that will unfold.

Sandy Alderson will most likely sign one more starting pitcher. My bet is still on Chris Young. So stick Dillon Gee in AAA as insurance. Also expect Alderson to sign a lefty reliever eventually. Right now he’s in wait-mode to see which one of his choices price drops the lowest. Names like Tim Byrdak, Clay Rapada, Taylor Tankersley, Ron Mahay, Joe Beimel, Will Ohman, and Dennys Reyes are all possibilities. A 4th Outfielder is also a possibility for a bargain bin signing eventually. I have extreme doubts the Mets plan to use Lucas Duda in that role to start the season.

Camp Battles are also going to have an affect on the final 25-man roster. Daniel Murphy, Brad Emaus, Luis Hernandez, Luis Castillo, and Chin-Lung Hu will all compete for the 2B job in spring training. I see only 2-3 of those guys actually making the roster. I see Lucas Duda and Fernando Martinez competing for the 4th OF job if the Mets don’t sign anyone. Terry Collins has already gone on record saying he will give F-Mart a shot at winning the job in the Spring. I see no chance in hell that Oliver Perez makes the opening day roster. He’s pitched awful over the winter and shows no sign of improving anytime soon. Pat Misch will probably find him himself in AAA as insurance or waived. However if we sign just one more SP and a Lefty Reliever, then theres a chance Misch or Perez makes the team as the 25th man in a Long Reliever position since Gee will be sent to AAA. My money would be on Misch winning that battle.

Either way the 25-man roster is far from set. Over 20% of the roster is in question going into camp. Lot’s of fun battles are likely to unfold over Spring. It’s going to be a lot of fun to watch.

Dear every Mets blogger out there,

How nice is it not to have to write about the Manger situation anymore? Talk about the most dreadful 2-3 week blogging period. Time to move on to bigger problems, like oh say the players who actually play on the field.

Terry Collins was officially named the manager of the Mets tuesday morning. It’s over, done with, and you know what, I’m happy. I like the Collins hiring.

One thing I overheard in his interview yesterday was that he expects to go into Spring Training with a Daniel Murphy/Luis Castillo 2B tandem. I took 2 things away from that statement. One, I pray to god Luis Castillo is not anywhere near the Mets roster come March. Two, the team thinks highly of the second base/Murphy idea us fans have been wanting to try for 2 years.

I personally think/hope/pray that Sandy Alderson moves Castillo off the Mets roster as soon as possible. And I have faith he will. I expect Alderson to move him. Collins could be very well be making the Castillo statement since Castillo is technically still a Met. Alderson and Mets management both know they can’t waste roster spots with the likes of Castillo anymore.

I expect him and Ollie to be moved at some point this off-season. Ollie may have to be cut more than likely. Castillo however has a slight chance to be traded. 2 teams to keep an eye on for a Castillo trade are the Cubs & Rockies.

I would guess the Mets have 5-10 million dollars they can spend this offseason. This means they have to budget their money smartly. Part 1 is praying Feliciano doesn’t accept arbitration. Sandy Alderson has always worked for small market teams. Working with a small budget is something he’s very used to. My guess is they spend 3-4 million on a Starting Pitcher, 2-3 million dollars on a reliever or 2, and 1-2 million on a backup catcher.

Theres your offseason Mets fans. StLucieToFlushing Writer Joe DeMayo threw the name Chris Young out to me yesterday. I’m talking about the former Padres pitcher not the Arizona CF. Sandy Alderson has obvious Padres connections and a possible Young deal could be worked out. Expect 1 year 3-4 mil plus incentives. Young’s trying to come back and prove he’s healthy and where better to do it then in Citi Field.

If you were paying attention you can see I left out signing a 2B. That because I truthfully have a ton of faith in Daniel Murphy. His bat is more than adequate to be a 2B and hit 7th/8th for the Mets in 2011. Also according to an interview ESPNNewYork’s Adam Rubin did with a scout in the DR, Murphy was “serviceable.” He made all the plays but one. The scout went on to say he needs to work on his arm action a bit and tighten up to avoid throwing errors. Not that he’s made any yet but it’s something he needs work on.

Also Murphy is said to be working hard at learning the position so that encouraging. I’m all for a Murphy/2B experiment. I have been for awhile. You have to remember that way back when before the god awful LF experience and before his more than satisfying 1B campaign, Murphy is a 3B at heart. He has some range and he can handle going to his left and his right. The scout did say he’s better going to his left which is expected since most 3B go to their left better than their right. He’s a work in progress and a work I’m intrigued about. I like the idea of Daniel Murphy as my 2011 2B.

This offseason will be one of addition by subtraction. The Mets will attempt to cut there losses with a number of  players currently on the roster. Jeff Francouer and John Maine are locks to be non-tendered this offseason, which helps the Mets initial cause in retooling this team. However non-tenders and people who I do believe will be tendered contracts is for another conversation. We will get to that sometime over the next few grueling months of the baseball season that every Mets fan hates to endure. For now we will focus on the “4 Elephants In The Room” as I like to call them. Those players are Luis Castillo, Oliver Perez, Carlos Beltran, and Francisco Rodriguez.

These 4 players are the expected to be heavily shopped by the Mets this offseason. I truly only expect 2 of those 4 to be traded (Castillo and Perez), however one will show examples of ways in which all 4 can be traded. These examples are as follows -

Luis Castillo to the Cubs/Kosuke Fukudome to the Mets

In 2011 Luis Castillo is schedule to make 6 million dollars. Kosuke Fukudome is scheduled to make 13.5 million dollars. If this trade were to be made the Cubs would have to assume most, if not all of the 7.5 million dollar difference in contracts for this to work. Another way in which this can work is if the Mets were to send Oliver Perez in the package too. Perez makes 12 million in 2011, and then the Mets would be the one picking up some money. The Mets would then have to pick up 5.5 million dollars in the deal to even out the money. This is a price one is sure the Mets would even be okay with. Why is this appealing to the Cubs? They have Blake DeWitt penciled in as their opening day 2B for 2011 as of now. He is no sure thing to be a starting MLB player and having Castillo for one year may not be such a bad thing in Chicago.

Oliver Perez to the Royals/Gil Meche to the Mets

This possibility has already been discussed this year by both Omar Minaya and Royals GM Dayton Moore. Unfortunately they weren’t able to come to an agreement before the deadline and nothing ever came to fruition. Meche ended up getting reinjured (again) and his 2011 season ended like most of his other seasons. Despite his injury problems, he is still a better option for the Mets then Oliver Perez. Both Perez and Meche both are scheduled to make 12 million dollars in 2011 (the final year in both of their contracts). Both have fallen out of favor with their respected clubs. Perez because of poor performance and Meche because of injury troubles. This deal seems to make so much sense how could it not get done? Well maybe its because Dayton Moore hates the thought of Perez just as much as Mets fans do. Well he comes a proposition – throw in a minor leaguer like say Eddie Kunz, who also could benefit from a change of scenery. Maybe that will be enough for Dayton Moore to roll the dice. The salaries match up so it’s not as if either team would have to eat money. Could be an interesting option come this offseason.

Carlos Beltran to the White Sox/Bobby Jenks to the Mets

First off for this deal to work the Mets will need to eat a significant portion of Beltrans 18.5 million 2011 salary. Say they are willing to do that then this trade could come to fruition. I’ll give you 2 reasons why I think so – Reason 1 – White Sox GM Kenny Williams is known for loving to make the “big trade”. He may be willing to take a gamble on Beltran, who will be playing in a contract year, in hopes that he finds his past form. Reason 2 – Kenny Williams has been searching for that “big bat” recently. He engaged the Brewers about Prince Fielder, the Nat’s about Adam Dunn, and is even considering putting a claim in on Manny Ramirez when he hits waivers this week. Carlos Beltran might be just the player he is trying to get. Bobby Jenks has clearly fallen out of favor as the closer in Chicago, and with K-Rod on the outs in Flushing he could be a nice return in a trade with the White Sox. Even if K-Rod is not traded this offseason, Jenks can step into the set-up role for one season in hopes of becoming the Mets full-time closer in 2012.

Francisco Rodriguez to the Rays/Salary Relief for the Mets

First of all, I see K-Rod as actually being the hardest of the 4 to move. Not just because of his off the field issues this season, but also because of the vesting option that may kick in after 2011. According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, K-Rod’s 17.5 million dollar 2012 salary would kick in if the 3 following things happen – 1. He finishes 55 games in 2011, 2. He finishes 100 games between 2010 and 2011, 3. Doctors give him a clean bill of health following the 2011 season. While those 3 things are big “if’s”, they still could all happen leaving the Ray’s with a huge contract they don’t want in 2012. Rafael Soriano is a free agent following this season and the Rays will want a closer that can step in and fill his shoes to keep them in the AL East hunt come 2011. I am sure K-Rod would be welcomed in Tampa despite his off the field issues, but the Mets would have to eat a significant chunk of that 2011 11.5 million salary in order to make that happen. This of course is a direct cause of the off the field problems.

One believes any of these trades are distinct possibilities due to the Mets desired course of action this offseason. If they move 2 of the 4, Good. 3 of 4, Great. 4 of 4, amazing. The main concern is that they move some of these elephants out of the room before 2011 becomes just as much of a Zoo as 2010.