When you look on paper at the NL East it’s pretty easy to say that the Mets are destined to finish in last place, some even predicting 95+ losses. 2011’s last place finisher, the Marlins added Jose Reyes, Heath Bell and Mark Buehrle. The Phillies and Braves are still the top 2 in the division and the Nationals won 80 games and are heading up with prospects like Bryce Harper coming and the return of Stephen Strasburg.

 How about the Mets? Well they added Frank Francisco, Jon Rauch, Ramon Ramriez and Andres Torres. Doesn’t quite give you the excitement of the other teams does it? Fact is with the loss of Jose Reyes and the fact that who knows when/if Johan Santana will pitch in 2012 things seem to look pretty down. For 2012 to have a chance at success you need quite a few players to have career years, as well as someway somehow they have to keep their roster on the field for the most part.

 Do I think it’s possible the Mets can contend in 2012? I do not believe so. Can the Mets surprise people and win 80 games? Sure I’ll go with that. But that’s with everything breaking right. With all that said I think 2012 does have a chance to “excite” the fan base as Sandy Alderson said. I believe this year can excite the fan base because they have the possibility to see some players come to Queens from the ever improving farm system like Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Reese Havens, Jordany Valdespin, Jeurys Familia and maybe even Matt Harvey.

 The Mets farm is still considered to be in the 11-15 range or so among MLB clubs. This is a vast improvement over the years where they were considered to have among the top 5 WORST farm systems in the league. There are kids to be excited about in the system. You have Zack Wheeler, whom the Mets acquired for Carlos Beltran has the stuff and makeup of a #1 starter at the big league level. You then have 5 tool talents like 1^st rounder Brandon Nimmo and Cesar Puello. You also have other power arms like Harvey,Familia, Michael Fulmer, Jenrry Mejia and as a pen arm Jack Leathersich.

 The Mets are seemingly sacrificing spending on the big league team for the minor league side. Sandy Alderson predicted a payroll in the ~$100 million range for 2012, but that was including the draft/international free agency.

 It remains to be seen what the Mets draft/IFA spending cap will be under the new CBA, but I’d expect it to be similar or a little higher than the amount they spent in 2011 ($6.425 million). They select 12^th and also received two picks for losing Jose Reyes which have yet to be determined exactly where they will fall due to other compensation free agents yet to sign.

 The future looks bright in Flushing. If 2012 goes by the wayside and the Mets end up with a top 5 pick in 2013 then if they execute they will add more premium talent to the system. The hope in the organization is to build the Mets into a consistent contender. This all starts with the draft, with international free agency and trades of veterans for prospects. While I think 2012 will be a lost year in terms of the MLB team contending, it will be far from a lost year in terms of the long term health and success of the organization. Not only will more prospects be added via trades/draft/international free agency but you’ll see the current batch progress. That is exciting to me.

1. RHP Zack Wheeler – It’s really 1 and 1a with him and fellow righty Matt Harvey. I give Wheeler the edge due to the fact that he has 2 true plus strike out pitches in his fastball (which can touch 99 mph) and curve. He also throws a hard straight change and a slider. Both of those pitches are below average at this stage. There are some injury concerns in the delivery(inverted W, or I like to call it “M”) but he has legitimate top of the rotation starter potential.

2. RHP Matt Harvey – Harvey right now only has one plus pitch, and that’s the fastball. He has what would be rated as “average with flashes of better” with his curve and slider. He also throws a change-up which is below average right now. He doesn’t have any major injury concerns and has the upside of a plus fastball + 3 above average secondaries with above average command. That is the recipe for a quality #2 starter.

3. RHP Jeurys Familia – If there were an award for the most improved prospect it no debate would go to Familia. In 2010 Familia was a wild flamethrower struggling in High-A St Lucie. Fast forward to 2011 and with a mechanical change to make him more upright he breaks onto the scene. Coming into 2011 I thought best case scenario for Familia was a set up man type. Now I can view him as having potential as a starter in the middle of a contending rotation, or potentially as a closer. He supplements his mid 90’s fastball with an above average slider and a change-up that leaves some to be desired. Regardless of that Familia is now really on the prospect scene.

4. RHP Jenrry Mejia – Some people are dropping Mejia hard because he got Tommy John. I am not one of those. Mejia was a higher ranked prospect than Wheeler or Harvey and he got a surgery which has an extremely high success rate at this point in time. I personally view Mejia as a guy who is going to be a lights out closer rather than a starting pitcher given his repertoire and high level of effort in his delivery. Mejia mainly features a fastball, cutter, a curve and a change-up. Remember K-Rod was also groomed as a starting pitcher and was once #1 in the Angels system much like Mejia was for the Mets. As long as he is healthy Mejia has the upside of a #1/#2 starter and the downside as a very good late inning reliever.

5. OF Brandon Nimmo – Nimmo is the first 1st round pick for Paul DePodesta and the new Mets front office. Nimmo is from Wyoming where he couldn’t play high school ball, only Legion ball and showcases. Nimmo is an extremely raw player with phenomenal tools. He has a chance to be a legitimate middle of the order bat that can play a quality center field in Citi Field. This was a very high risk/high reward type pick for the Mets which is something you haven’t seen from them much in years past.

6. OF Kirk Nieuwenhuis – If Nieuwenhuis didn’t undergo shoulder surgery there’s a good chance that we would be talking about him opening up 2012 as the every-day RF for the big club to open 2012. Instead that honor goes to Lucas Duda. Nieuwenhuis is simply a baseball player. He doesn’t really have one plus tool, pretty average across the board. He can play some defense, hit some doubles, hit some homers, steal some bases and hit for a solid average. I think Kirk is a player that could give you 15 homers, 20 stolen bases and 30 doubles with solid defense. Not a bad prospect by any means, but lacks star potential.

7. RHP Michael Fulmer – The Mets took Fulmer with the supplemental first round pick they received as compensation for letting Pedro Feliciano go and not pitch for the Yankees. Fulmer was overshadowed by fellow Oklahoma prep studs Dylan Bundy (4th overall to Baltimore) and Archie Bradley (7th overall to Arizona) but Fulmer is a pretty exciting prospect himself. He features a fastball that can get up to 97 and a quality hammer curve. He needs to work on his change-up but with Fulmer and Nimmo the Mets’ first two picks present immense upside which wasn’t often something you saw done by the prior regimes.

8. 2B Reese Havens – If Havens didn’t get injured as often as he has he’d already be entrenched at second base for the Mets. I have seen Havens play 2B the last two years for Binghamton and I came away thinking he could be an average defensive second baseman at the MLB level. But the bat is what would carry him. He has a smooth short powerful stroke and puts the barrel on the ball consistently. He also has a good knowledge of the strike zone. If Havens could be healthy, which is a major if, you’re talking about a guy who’ll be among the top half as far as second basemen go in the entire league.

9. SS Wilmer Flores – I am not one of Wilmer Flores’s biggest fans. He has a great hit tool there is no debating that. There are big time questions if the power will ever come for Flores and he has a lot to be worked on as far as plate discipline, though that can be ironed out to some extent. Now defensively he has good hands and a solid arm so his best fit is likely at third base in pro ball. He literally is Bengie Molina slow which is weird given his frame. I just don’t see the star potential that others see. He is still young and can regain it with improvements but for me Flores’s stock is tumbling quick.

10. OF Cesar Puello – Puello accomplished what most have asked of him, which was to get that batting practice power into games. He did a better job of that hitting 10 home runs in the Florida State League in 2011. Negatives are he didn’t steal bags at the rate he did in 2010, and he had a putrid 1st half of the season. Puello OPS’d .642 pre-all star but OPS’d .800 post all star. He should go back to St Lucie for some more seasoning but Puello is one of few in the system with 5 tool potential. If his power keeps developing he could be a 20/20 guy who could play either center field or right field at an above average level in Citi Field.

11. SS/2B Jordany Valdespin – Valdespin also was much improved in 2011 from years past. He played in career high 134 games and OPS’d .801 with 37 SB’s. Work ethic issues are big for Valdespin. If Havens cannot be healthy you may see Valdespin at a middle infield spot in Queens at some point in 2012.

12. LHP Juan Urbina – 18 year old lefty with MLB bloodlines. Already possesses two above average pitches in his fastball and change-up. Has a consistent delivery, needs work on his breaking ball but possesses big upside.

13. RHP Akeel Morris – low H/9, high K/9, high BB/9. If he throws strikes he’s dominant. Has phenomenal stuff that just needs to be harnessed.

14. 3B Aderlin Rodriguez – biggest power bat in the system. Doesn’t do much else. Probably a 1B long term.

15. RHP Cory Mazzoni – 2011 2nd round pick with big assortment of pitches. #3 type starter upside.

16. RHP Logan Verrett – 2011 3rd round pick. Pitchability type, won’t blow you away. Don’t see him as much more than a #4 starter in the bigs.

17. OF Cory Vaughn – Toolsy outfielder who struggles with big time fastballs. Needs mechanical adjustment at the plate but could be a big league RF with some changes and improvements.

18. OF Juan Lagares – Former SS turned outfielder who has done nothing but hit in 2011, including at the Arizona Fall League. Likely addition to 40 man roster this off-season who likely won’t be a full time OF in the bigs could be a quality 4th OF.

19. LHP Darin Gorski – His stuff has trended upward while improving control led to a fantastic year for Gorski. 2.08 ERA in High-A with a 4.83 K/BB. He looks like a back end starter, but last year he was a non prospect so that’s a compliment.

20. OF Fernando Martinez – Let’s be real here, chances are Fernando Martinez will never be healthy. An absolutely phenomenal bat when he’s on the field will likely go to waste. But he is only 23 so I’ll give him one more year. Could be a trade candidate this off season.

21. OF Matt den Dekker – Best defensive outfielder in the system. If he could cut down the strike outs he might end up a solid regular in CF in the bigs. If he does not then you’re looking at a quality 4th outfielder. One of the best bets to be a MLB guy on this list.

22. LHP Jack Leathersich – 2011 5th round pick from UMass-Lowell. Lefty whom the Mets will likely use as a starter this year to build innings to prepare for a quick rise as a reliever. Out of the pen Leathersich can touch 98 with a solid slurve. He could end up a good back end reliever. Loved this pick in the 5th this year.

23. 3B Zach Lutz – Another bat who cannot stay healthy but can rake. Have been told he’s one of the top 3 best pure hitters in the Mets minors but is limited to 1B/3B, so barring a David Wright trade there isn’t much of an immediate role for Lutz.

24. RHP Greg Peavey – Doesn’t have a plus pitch, pretty average across the board. But good groundball rate and solid control could make for a back end of rotation major leaguer.

25. RHP Domingo Tapia – Tapia can throw pure gas. I have been told he’s touched 100 on the gun. His secondary pitches lack which is why he had a pedestrian 5.4 K/9. Improve on the secondaries in 2012 and Tapia will fly up this list.

I would like to preface this with the following: Yes I know the Mets are typically near the basement as far as draft spending goes among MLB. No argument there. No argument that needs to change. But for the people who e-mail or tweet or IM me talking about how the Mets are going to over-draft a kid at #13 just because he’ll sign for cheap to me is a bit crazy.

Sure they have the hovering Madoff stuff, but one question I ask fans is at what point has Sandy Alderson and co lied? They are upfront about everything, and they have all said the Mets will be active in spending in the draft as well as international free agency. Yes we’ve heard the same song and dance from the last regime, but I am with Nick Faleris (whom I did a Q+A with that you can read HERE) that I will believe what the front office says until I am given reason not to.

Also history suggests when the Mets have a high pick they likely will spend on it. Since 2002 when the Mets had first round picks they have paid them pretty well. Almost every time they paid above slot. Here’s a rundown:

2010: #7 RHP Matt Harvey – $2.525M
2009: No 1st Round Pick (Steven Matz was first pick)
2008: #18 1B Ike Davis – $1.575M, #22 SS Reese Havens – $1.419M
2007: No 1st Round Pick (Eddie Kunz was first pick)
2006: No 1st Round Pick (Kevin Mulvey was first pick)
2005: #9 RHP Mike Pelfrey – $3.55M
2004: #3 RHP Philip Humber – $3.7M
2003: #12 OF Lastings Milledge – $2.2M
2002: #15 LHP Scott Kazmir – $2.15M (at the time biggest bonus in team history)

Mind you that Pelfrey, Kazmir and Milledge were all expected to be top 5 picks that fell for one reason or another and the Mets paid them. The Mets have shown the propensity to draft best player available in round 1 and make sure that player is signed. There is no reason to believe 2011 will be any different. Who the best player available remains to be seen, but I expect the Mets to pick the best player available on their board. Does that mean that player will be #1 on Jim Callis’s best available flashing on the bottom of the screen draft day? Not necessarily, but I would not expect them to take some late first round talent at 13 because he’s willing to sign for x dollars. That bears the question: What do they do at #44 and beyond?

As it’s been circulating since yesterday, Mets flamethrower Jeurys Familia has gotten called up to Double-A Binghamton effective today. As Toby Hyde from Mets Minor League Blog reported, Familia should be starting tomorrow’s game for the B-Mets. It would be his turn to throw, and the starter for the game as of last night was still listed as TBA.

Familia, 21, really bounced back from a poor year in St Lucie to go back to the level and flat out dominate. In 36.1 innings this year he’s allowed 21 hits, 6 earned runs, 1 home run while walking only 8 and striking out 36 with a 1.49 ERA. The biggest stat to me is the big decrease in walks. Last year he walked 74 in 121 innings (good for a 5.5 BB/9), and this year he’s lowered it to 2.0 BB/9. The key for him thus far has been much improved fastball command as well as a vastly improved slider from last year. Some people are even calling it a plus pitch now.

But that bears the question, what does Familia need to do to succeed in the much more challenging Eastern League? First off, he cannot overthrow the fastball and sacrifice command. He also needs to keep throwing the slider in the proper counts, using it as a strike out pitch like he has in St Lucie. The biggest thing for me is for him to really start flashing and developing his changeup. He has one, he just rarely used it, whether that was based on confidence or just lack of need at the level he was at, he needs it now.

I am on record as to saying I think Familia will one day end up at the end of ball games closing or setting up. But the only reason I say that is the fact that he has a plus fastball and plus slider but a below average change-up. If he can work hard with B-Mets pitching coach Marc Valdes on it he has the potential to be a #2/#3 starter in the big leagues. I am hoping that Familia has worked hard on it in bullpen sessions etc but has just yet to bring it out into games because without it his transition to Double-A may not be so smooth.

Familia is starting to rise for me as a prospect given his newfound command. Now throw in an effective change-up and we’re talking about him, Matt Harvey and arguably Jenrry Mejia as all future quality major league starting pitchers. For me it’s up to Familia and the coaching staff at Double-A, and whenever he gets to Triple-A to really put a big effort into developing the change-up. It’s better for not only Familia as being a starter is a much more lucrative career than that of a reliever. It is also better for the team because any time you can develop a quality starting pitcher it is saving you ~$10 million a year. Given this organization’s financial woes, do everything you can to make this kid a starter, he could be a very good one.

With the injury to Jenrry Mejia, Matt Harvey is now the Mets #1 pitching prospect. You could debate he was the #1 even with Mejia healthy, but either way he is now. With the fact that the Mets really don’t have more than 3 guys you can say are long term starting pitchers in the majors right now, possibly 2(Johan Santana and Jon Niese) if you believe Mike Pelfrey is on a slid which I don’t.

With Mejia done for 9-12 months and the possibility that he ends up being changed to a closer which would spark much debate around the fan base, your only other legitimate possible frontline starting pitching option in the minors is Matt Harvey. Harvey has more than done his job so far in St Lucie. He is 4-1 with a 1.10 ERA, in 32.2 innings he’s allowed 24 hits (.207 BAA) 4 ER (1 HR) 11 BB and has struck out 39.

Harvey clearly is ready for AA, it’s just a matter of when the Mets decide to send him there. Before the Mets used the 7th overall pick on Harvey, the questions around him were that he didn’t have a full arsenal of pitches, relying on two and that his inconsistent mechanics led to control problems. In talking with people down in St Lucie who have seen Harvey throw I have been told he is throwing 4 pitches, and controlling them reasonably well due to the fact he is repeating a clean delivery.

I would think by June 1 you see Harvey promoted, and that will be the real test. I expect him to excel in AA, maybe not to the tune of a 1.10 ERA, but the kid is the goods. I said this on draft day last year despite the pundits. Harvey very well could be a workhorse starter with plus stuff. Say hello to a quality #2 starter. The Mets have a dire need to Harvey to reach his potential given the lack of high end pitching in the system, as well as the fact that outside of Santana, whom you don’t know what you’re getting your major league staff doesn’t have any either.

Everyone that knows Harvey knows he is mentally strong, and has the stuff to back it up. I have little doubt that he will be able to step up and be that guy that the Mets need him to be. I want to be patient with Harvey but if he goes to AA and pitches very well it is going to be hard to not give him a fair shake at winning a rotation spot early in 2012. In my opinion the Mets absolutely need Harvey to live up to his potential, and I think he will.

The Mets have a very mediocre farm system. This is common knowledge around baseball. At best they are middle of the pack. However there are plenty of bright spots around the minors.

Mets 2010 first round draft pick Matt Harvey is 4-0. He has a 0.00 era over his first 22.0 innings! That’s incredible even for High-A St. Lucie. And to top it all off he has 27 strikeouts over this time frame. The one concern I have is the 8 bb’s he’s issued. Harvey’s control has been his biggest question mark since we drafted him last year. However 8 walks in 22 innings is not awful. It’s just a bit concerning since he will ultimately find himself in AA before the end of the season. The talent there is a lot better and he will have to rely on his control much more. Regardless his future looks bright as can be. Baseball America’s own Jim Callis was quoted last week as saying he (Harvey) is the best pitcher he’s seen in the minors thus far this season.

Jenrry Mejia is the other top prospect who may find himself in the rotation come 2013. Most likely he will actually be there by 2012 if all goes well this season in AAA. However long term I like many other people see him in the bullpen as the future closer. Right now that looks like a worst case scenario though. Mejia is being prepared as a starter and rightfully so. He has shown he can pitch deep into games and maintain velocity. The bullpen isn’t that bad of a scenario though. Jonathan Papelbon was once a highly touted SP. He ended up being a very successful closer. Neftali Feliz was also a SP, and still may be one again one day. However right now he’s enjoying tremendous success in the Rangers pen as their closer. The future looks very bright for Mejia right now.

So what will the 2013 rotation look like?

Johan Santana will be in the final year of his contract that season. If he’s healthy you can go ahead and pencil him in the rotation.

Jon Niese will most likely still be a part of the team by then as well. He looks like a sure bet to be a Met for a decent period of time.

Mike Pelfrey is a question mark. Many experts expect the Mets to consider trading Pelfrey as soon as this year. His future with the Mets is in doubt, however right now it’s still a possibility he’s with the team in 2013.

R.A. Dickey has a 2 year contract (2011-2012) and may very well be gone by 2013. I’m crossing him off the list as of now.

Dillon Gee is a darkhorse. He appears to be a legitimate future 4 or 5 in a Major League rotation. He can give you innings on a consistent basis and wouldn’t be a terrible option as the 5th starter in 2013.

Obviously the Mets may also consider signing players in Free Agency or making trades for SP’s. However right now the this is my 2013 rotation –

Johan Santana
Jon Niese
Mike Pelfrey/Dillon Gee
Matt Harvey
Jenrry Mejia