I would like to preface this with the following: Yes I know the Mets are typically near the basement as far as draft spending goes among MLB. No argument there. No argument that needs to change. But for the people who e-mail or tweet or IM me talking about how the Mets are going to over-draft a kid at #13 just because he’ll sign for cheap to me is a bit crazy.

Sure they have the hovering Madoff stuff, but one question I ask fans is at what point has Sandy Alderson and co lied? They are upfront about everything, and they have all said the Mets will be active in spending in the draft as well as international free agency. Yes we’ve heard the same song and dance from the last regime, but I am with Nick Faleris (whom I did a Q+A with that you can read HERE) that I will believe what the front office says until I am given reason not to.

Also history suggests when the Mets have a high pick they likely will spend on it. Since 2002 when the Mets had first round picks they have paid them pretty well. Almost every time they paid above slot. Here’s a rundown:

2010: #7 RHP Matt Harvey – $2.525M
2009: No 1st Round Pick (Steven Matz was first pick)
2008: #18 1B Ike Davis – $1.575M, #22 SS Reese Havens – $1.419M
2007: No 1st Round Pick (Eddie Kunz was first pick)
2006: No 1st Round Pick (Kevin Mulvey was first pick)
2005: #9 RHP Mike Pelfrey – $3.55M
2004: #3 RHP Philip Humber – $3.7M
2003: #12 OF Lastings Milledge – $2.2M
2002: #15 LHP Scott Kazmir – $2.15M (at the time biggest bonus in team history)

Mind you that Pelfrey, Kazmir and Milledge were all expected to be top 5 picks that fell for one reason or another and the Mets paid them. The Mets have shown the propensity to draft best player available in round 1 and make sure that player is signed. There is no reason to believe 2011 will be any different. Who the best player available remains to be seen, but I expect the Mets to pick the best player available on their board. Does that mean that player will be #1 on Jim Callis’s best available flashing on the bottom of the screen draft day? Not necessarily, but I would not expect them to take some late first round talent at 13 because he’s willing to sign for x dollars. That bears the question: What do they do at #44 and beyond?

The Mets have a very mediocre farm system. This is common knowledge around baseball. At best they are middle of the pack. However there are plenty of bright spots around the minors.

Mets 2010 first round draft pick Matt Harvey is 4-0. He has a 0.00 era over his first 22.0 innings! That’s incredible even for High-A St. Lucie. And to top it all off he has 27 strikeouts over this time frame. The one concern I have is the 8 bb’s he’s issued. Harvey’s control has been his biggest question mark since we drafted him last year. However 8 walks in 22 innings is not awful. It’s just a bit concerning since he will ultimately find himself in AA before the end of the season. The talent there is a lot better and he will have to rely on his control much more. Regardless his future looks bright as can be. Baseball America’s own Jim Callis was quoted last week as saying he (Harvey) is the best pitcher he’s seen in the minors thus far this season.

Jenrry Mejia is the other top prospect who may find himself in the rotation come 2013. Most likely he will actually be there by 2012 if all goes well this season in AAA. However long term I like many other people see him in the bullpen as the future closer. Right now that looks like a worst case scenario though. Mejia is being prepared as a starter and rightfully so. He has shown he can pitch deep into games and maintain velocity. The bullpen isn’t that bad of a scenario though. Jonathan Papelbon was once a highly touted SP. He ended up being a very successful closer. Neftali Feliz was also a SP, and still may be one again one day. However right now he’s enjoying tremendous success in the Rangers pen as their closer. The future looks very bright for Mejia right now.

So what will the 2013 rotation look like?

Johan Santana will be in the final year of his contract that season. If he’s healthy you can go ahead and pencil him in the rotation.

Jon Niese will most likely still be a part of the team by then as well. He looks like a sure bet to be a Met for a decent period of time.

Mike Pelfrey is a question mark. Many experts expect the Mets to consider trading Pelfrey as soon as this year. His future with the Mets is in doubt, however right now it’s still a possibility he’s with the team in 2013.

R.A. Dickey has a 2 year contract (2011-2012) and may very well be gone by 2013. I’m crossing him off the list as of now.

Dillon Gee is a darkhorse. He appears to be a legitimate future 4 or 5 in a Major League rotation. He can give you innings on a consistent basis and wouldn’t be a terrible option as the 5th starter in 2013.

Obviously the Mets may also consider signing players in Free Agency or making trades for SP’s. However right now the this is my 2013 rotation –

Johan Santana
Jon Niese
Mike Pelfrey/Dillon Gee
Matt Harvey
Jenrry Mejia

Before I really jump full fledged back into prospect mode, I wanted to give one more piece on the big league team. My contributors will still give it coverage, but I am going to jump to where I feel most comfortable, and that is extensive coverage of the minors.

My personal opinion on Sandy Alderson’s first offseason as Mets GM is that considering the financial situation he was given, he did a heck of a job. Virtually every move he decided to do made sense in some fashion. He filled out the rotation with two arms so there can be depth at AAA. He got some bullpen competition, he got solid bench contributors and good competition at second base. Unlike his predecessor, Sandy Alderson built a complete team. Is it the best team ever? No. But it has atleast capable players at every position on the diamond.

I will do a lot of coverage of minor league and major league camp when I go to St Lucie for spring training March 5th – 12th. Here are my pre-spring training predictions as to what the 2011 Opening Day Mets will look like:

Lineup:
1. SS Jose Reyes
2. RF Angel Pagan
3. 3B David Wright
4. CF Carlos Beltran
5. LF Jason Bay
6. 1B Ike Davis
7. 2B Daniel Murphy (platoon with Brad Emaus. Should face Josh Johnson OD, so I’ll say Murphy gets the start.)
8. C Josh Thole
9. P Mike Pelfrey

If healthy this lineup should be easily a top 3 lineup in the NL. I don’t think there is a weakness in the lineup if everyone is healthy. I am really excited to see what it can do.

Bench:
C Mike Nickeas (Ronny Paulino is suspended first 8 games for PED use)
2B/3B Brad Emaus (a kind of platoon with Murphy)
MIF Chin-lung Hu (he’ll beat Justin Turner,Luis Hernandez for job)
OF/2B Scott Hairston (he’ll compete with Nick Evans and win)
OF Willie Harris (he’s your straight up 4th outfielder)

I actually really like this bench. Good defensive players all around, and some solid pop too. The bench I think could be a real strength for the 2011 Mets.

Rotation:
1. RHP Mike Pelfrey
2. LHP Jon Niese
3. RHP RA Dickey
4. LHP Chris Capuano
5. RHP Chris Young

This rotation has upside, but extreme downside. If all healthy, it could certainly be formidable. If not, then the Mets are going to tank .. fast.

Bullpen:
1. RHP Francisco Rodriguez
2. RHP Bobby Parnell
3. RHP Taylor Buchholz
4. RHP DJ Carrasco
5. LHP Tim Byrdak
6. RHP Pedro Beato
7. RHP Manny Acosta

You don’t have a pure long reliever in the pen, but DJ Carrasco and theoretically Pedro Beato(starter before 2010 in minors) should be able to give you multiple innings if you need it. You probably lose Pat Misch though to waivers.

By my estimations, this is the 25-man roster I could see the Mets going into 2011 with if the season started tomorrow -

Starting Lineup – Jose Reyes, Angel Pagan, David Wright, Carlos Beltran, Ike Davis, Jason Bay, Josh Thole, Daniel Murphy.

Bench – Ronny Paulino, Brad Emaus, Luis Castillo, Luis Hernandez, Lucas Duda.

Starting Rotation – Mike Pelfrey, Jon Niese, R.A. Dickey, Chris Capuano, Dillon Gee.

Bullpen – Oliver Perez, Manny Acosta, Taylor Buchholz, Pat Misch, D.J. Carrasco, Bobby Parnell, Francisco Rodriguez.

Of those 25 players, the ones I see most likely being replaced by opening day are Luis Castillo, Luis Hernandez, Lucas Duda, Dillon Gee, Oliver Perez, and Pat Misch. Thats 6 spots that are subject to change depending on moves made from now until opening day as well as camp battles that will unfold.

Sandy Alderson will most likely sign one more starting pitcher. My bet is still on Chris Young. So stick Dillon Gee in AAA as insurance. Also expect Alderson to sign a lefty reliever eventually. Right now he’s in wait-mode to see which one of his choices price drops the lowest. Names like Tim Byrdak, Clay Rapada, Taylor Tankersley, Ron Mahay, Joe Beimel, Will Ohman, and Dennys Reyes are all possibilities. A 4th Outfielder is also a possibility for a bargain bin signing eventually. I have extreme doubts the Mets plan to use Lucas Duda in that role to start the season.

Camp Battles are also going to have an affect on the final 25-man roster. Daniel Murphy, Brad Emaus, Luis Hernandez, Luis Castillo, and Chin-Lung Hu will all compete for the 2B job in spring training. I see only 2-3 of those guys actually making the roster. I see Lucas Duda and Fernando Martinez competing for the 4th OF job if the Mets don’t sign anyone. Terry Collins has already gone on record saying he will give F-Mart a shot at winning the job in the Spring. I see no chance in hell that Oliver Perez makes the opening day roster. He’s pitched awful over the winter and shows no sign of improving anytime soon. Pat Misch will probably find him himself in AAA as insurance or waived. However if we sign just one more SP and a Lefty Reliever, then theres a chance Misch or Perez makes the team as the 25th man in a Long Reliever position since Gee will be sent to AAA. My money would be on Misch winning that battle.

Either way the 25-man roster is far from set. Over 20% of the roster is in question going into camp. Lot’s of fun battles are likely to unfold over Spring. It’s going to be a lot of fun to watch.

Over the past few days i’ve heard more and more that Paul Maholm is fully on the trading block. The pirates may seek a young SS who plays good defense to fill out their infield, such as Ruben Tejada. They had been trying for Jason Barlett (who was dealt to the Padres) and J.J. Hardy (who was dealt to the Orioles) in past weeks. I’m sure the Pirates could always engage the Cardinals about Brendan Ryan. However they may like Tejada as a younger piece to an already extremely young infield.

Paul Maholm would give the Mets balance in their rotation. As of now the only lefty scheduled to be in the rotation is Niese. Other options Pelfrey, Dickey, Gee, Mejia are all righty. Even signing Chris Young would give the Mets 4 righties and 1 lefty in the rotation. Maholm went 9-15, 5.10 era, 1.60 k/bb for Pittsburgh in 2010. I feel he could play an important role in our rotation as a 4 or 5 starter.

I’d suppose Ruben Tejada and Jeurys Familia could be a good package for Maholm. Possibly adding a low level guy to the package. I’m not saying Maholm would be a #2 starter, but I strongly believe he could be a solid 4th starter in Citi Field with our offense. I think this would be a smart acquisition for Sandy and Co. Tejada is not going to be finding a job on the Mets anytime soon. And Familia’s potential remains to be seen. This move would make a heck of alot of sense for the Mets right now.

This past weekend the Mets promoted their top prospect, pitcher Jenrry Mejia to Triple-A Buffalo from Double-A Binghamton. This is likely in preparation for his jump back to the MLB level sometime in September. I’d guess he makes maybe 2 starts in AAA and then gets the call to replace Pat Misch in the rotation. So even if the Mets aren’t really in contention, you are going to get a good look at the organization’s top pitching prospect in the role he belongs in, a starter.

Now that brings up the question, can Mejia start 2011 in the big league rotation? Granted he’d probably need to be on some form of an innings limit, but with the Mets unlikely to have the dollars to spend on a top flight starter, maybe it’s worth it to see if you have your own. Mejia tells everyone that talks to him about it that he’s a starter, not a reliever, and he’s making all the necessary adjustments to make sure he is a starter, not a reliever.

There has been some high praise for what he is doing with his secondary pitches in the minors. He is throwing his curve and his change-up for strikes, and he’s really beginnning(still a real work in progress) to work a hard 2 seamer into his repertoire. His control in general is also a bit of a work in progress, but he’s been getting progressively better as the year has gone on. I spoke to one scout who saw Mejia in AA last year, and then again this year who told me that he sees “a completely different pitcher.” “Last year if it was 3-0, he was walking the batter, virtually guaranteed. This year he’s shown the ability to battle back and not only get strikeouts, but induce weak contact on 3-1, 3-2 counts.”

The Mets will really have to monitor how Mejia does this spring, not just his lines after each start, but how his velocity lasts in games,how his location is through out the game with all his pitches. You have to make sure he isn’t falling into the habit of throwing only one pitch. I have no problem if say, his curve is off one day he rarely throws it except maybe “get me overs”, but he really has to use his whole repertoire and show that he’s progressed.

But if Mejia has really made the strives suggested to me, the Mets may not need to go and sign or trade for a starting pitcher this offseason, as they may have their own top prospect ready to contribute. Could the 2011 Opening Day rotation be Johan Santana-Mike Pelfrey-Jon Niese-RA Dickey and Jenrry Mejia? It’ll certainly be interesting to follow. Mejia will make his Triple-A debut tonight.