St. Lucie to Flushing

Do The Mets Give Up The #11 Pick For Bourn?

Should the Mets relinquish the #11 pick in the 2013 MLB First Year Player Draft in order to sign free-agent outfielder Michael Bourn? That question is the most hotly debated topic on Twitter among Mets fans and on the assortment of Mets blogs out there. There is two sides to the argument that are both perfectly understandable. I see a lot of fans who are minor league enthusiasts who rip into anyone who wants to get rid of the pick because you want to keep the farm system developing while the major league team develops. Then you have the other side that doesn’t mind giving up the pick because Michael Bourn is an All Star Gold Glove caliber center fielder who may not lead them to a World Series in 2013 but could be a big piece for them to make a run in 2014 or 2015.

Mets General Manager Sandy Alderson made a point to Jim Bowden on Sirius XM that with the trades of Carlos Beltran and RA Dickey in addition to the last two drafts, that the farm has bolstered to the point where they can at least consider giving up the #11 pick for a player like Bourn. He is right the farm system has made some serious strides since Paul DePodesta took over when Alderson came aboard. Before this new regime the Mets typically would have among the 3 worst farms in the game. Now you are talking about a team that could be ranked as high as top 15 depending on who you ask.

As they mentioned on the MLB Network Top 50 Prospect show last night, you have to go back to the 1980’s for the last time the Mets had two top 10 prospects in the game. This year they had two with pitcher Zack Wheeler coming in at #8 and catcher Travis d’Arnaud coming in at #6 and even getting a comparison to Buster Posey from former Rangers GM Jon Hart. Pitcher Noah Syndergaard also made the list at #29. There are definitely some exciting times ahead with some of the excellent talent the Mets have.

The question now is when? When do you start making the plunge into free agency or trades to acquire the necessary veteran pieces to put around your talented youngsters to make this team into a perennial contender? Let’s not even get into the argument about whether the #11 pick should be protected. (As you know the Mets had the #10 pick, but since the Pirates failed to sign their first round pick Mark Appel last year the Mets got shifted to pick #11) Discussing that is an piece for maybe another day.

The new Collective Bargaining Agreement has a slot value for each pick. This means based on all your picks that your team possesses in the top 10 rounds there is a dollar amount that MLB recommends you spend on each of those selections. You may play around with the money in the sense of giving less to a 1st rounder to pay more for a 2nd etc. Going over your allotted bonus money will get you a big fine in dollars, and depending how much you go over, in draft picks. The downside to losing the pick for Bourn is the money that was allotted for that pick goes away. The Mets would not be able to spend that elsewhere so it really lowers their odds of getting high quality talent throughout the draft, not just round one.

If the Mets do decide to forfeit the pick and the draft bonus allotment in order to add Bourn it shows a clear commitment to winning in the very near future. As a Mets fan I obviously want to see them win so there is some level of desire to see a winner sooner than later, but I try to be as logical as possible. I want them to win but I do not want them to fall into what happened a lot during Omar Minaya’s tenure as GM, which was forfeit the first-round pick to buy players. Of course Minaya arranged the selections of Matt Harvey and Ike Davis, both of whom are building blocks for this team. But let’s go back a little bit and assess the loss of 1st round picks for players signed and what players were selected with that pick and in that area.

2009: Surrendered #24 overall pick to sign RHP Francisco Rodriguez. The Angels selected outfielder Randal Grichuk with that pick. Grichuk obviously hasn’t panned out, but the #25 pick was current superstar Mike Trout, #27 was top Mariners shortstop prospect Nick Franklin and #28 was the toolsy and talented outfielder Reymond Fuentes. The Mets first pick came in the 2nd round and they took Long Island high school left hander Steven Matz who is talented but has yet to reach full season ball.

2007: Surrendered #29 overall pick to sign OF Moises Alou. The Giants selected outfielder Wendell Fairley with that pick. Again the specific pick didn’t work out, but there’s no saying that is the guy the Mets would have selected. Within a few picks of #29 guys like Reds shortstop Todd Frazier, Rangers outfielder Julio Borbon and current Met Travis d’Arnaud were selected. The Mets first selection that year was in the supplemental first round where they took Eddie Kunz who had a cup of coffee with the Mets and has sort of fallen off since.

2006: Surrendered #18 pick to sign LHP Billy Wagner. The Phillies selected pitcher Kyle Drabek with that pick. Drabek has fallen off some but he has made the bigs and was considered a top prospect in the league for some time. A couple picks later Ian Kennedy was selected. Wouldn’t he look nice in the Mets rotation? The Mets first pick that year was in the 2nd round when they selected pitcher Kevin Mulvey who is now retired.

The point really is if you give up the pick this year for Bourn you are sacrificing the chance of adding a potential impact talent in the 1st round while also hindering what you can do in rounds after that. If you sign Bourn that solves one outfield spot and next off season comes around and the Mets are expected to have quite a bit of financial flexibility to be able to add players to the roster. Hunter Pence is an example of a free agent outfielder who could fit and would surely get a qualifying offer from the Phillies. If you sign Bourn he has the chance to make an impact to the level of making the Mets have a unprotected pick in the 2014 draft.

While you have added two quality players which obviously would help the Mets win, you have basically tarnished the next two drafts due to losing the picks themselves and the money that goes with them. Ideally you want the Mets to become similar to the Texas Rangers as an organization. The Rangers are competitive every year but always manage to have a top farm system to go with it. In order to sustain success for a long period of time you have to have the ability to keep churning talent from your farm system and turning them into quality big league players. If the Mets start relinquishing their 1st round pick year after year it will severely hamper the farm system and lead to in my opinion a short lived period of time of being a major contender.

To sum up my point I cannot say I would have any interest in the Mets surrendering the #11 draft pick to sign Bourn. It isn’t even all because of the player the Mets could take at that spot, but the players they can take at other spots thanks to the budget allotment available from having the #11 pick. I want the Mets to be a long term success, and to do so you need have a farm system that keeps feeding the major league team and feeding other teams in trade for their quality veteran players.

Interview with Mets Outfielder Brandon Nimmo

I did this interview almost two weeks ago now but have not had the time to throw it up. I got the chance at the Connecticut Defenders game to get time with Mets 2011 first round pick Brandon Nimmo. As you know Brandon is the first ever first round pick from the state of Wyoming. Brandon has as much upside as anyone in the minor league system with having 5 tool ability. We touched on a lot of topics such as how he’s feeling at the plate, his thoughts on the Cyclones roster, what he likes to do in New York City and I made sure I got to the bottom of the Hunter Pence stuff! Click the play button below to hear my exclusive one on one interview with Brandon Nimmo.

Interview with Brandon Nimmo

Breakdown: Mets Draft Results vs Baseball America Rankings

After 3 long days the MLB Draft has concluded. The Mets have drafted 41 new players, some of which will join the organization and some who will not. I will list them based on their official pick number and then their ranking on Baseball America’s top 500 if applicable.

12. SS Gavin Cecchini – Barbe HS (LA) – BA Rank 16
35. C Kevin Plawecki – Purdue – BA Rank 67
71. 3B Matt Reynolds – Arkansas – BA Rank 147
75. RHP Teddy Stankiewicz – Forth Worth Christian HS (TX) – BA Rank 137
107. RHP Matt Koch – Louisville – BA Rank 61
140. SS Branden Kaupe – Baldwin HS (HI) – BA Rank NR
170. RHP Brandon Welch – Palm Beach State CC – BA Rank 135
200. 1B Jayce Boyd – Florida State – BA Rank 394
230. RHP Corey Oswalt – Madison HS (CA) – BA Rank 311
260. C Tomas Nido – Orangewood Christian HS (FL) – BA Rank 303
290. 2B Richie Rodriguez – Eastern Kentucky – BA Rank NR
320. RHP Paul Sewald – San Diego – BA Rank NR
350. RHP Logan Taylor – Eastern Oklahoma State JC – BA Rank 312
380. RHP Robert Whalen – Haines City HS (FL) – BA Rank NR
410. RHP Matthew Bowman – Princeton – BA Rank NR
440. RHP Chris Flexen – Newark Memorial HS (CA) – BA Rank 306
470. RHP Nicholas Grant – Milford HS (DE) – BA Rank NR
500. RHP Myles Smith – Miami Dade CC South – BA Rank 358
530. C Stefan Sabol – Orange Coast CC – BA Rank 293
560. LHP Paul Paez – Rio Hondo CC – BA Rank NR
590. RHP Tyler Vanderheiden – Samford – BA Rank NR
620. RHP Timothy Peterson – Kentucky – BA Rank NR
650. LHP Gary Byrd – Bethel – BA Rank NR
680. RHP Tejay Antone – Mansfield Legacy HS (TX) – BA Rank NR
710. RHP Connor Baits – Point Loma HS (CA) – BA Rank 281
740. RHP Andrew Massie – Dyer County HS (TN) – BA Rank NR
770. 2B Leon Byrd – Cypress Ranch HS (TX) – BA Rank NR
800. 1B Chris Shaw – Lexington HS (MA) – BA Rank NR
830. C Zach Arnold – Franklin County HS (KY) – BA Rank NR
860. RHP Jacob Marks – St Clair SS (Canada) – BA Rank NR
890. C Austin Barr – Camas HS (WA) – BA Rank 234
920. RHP Dustin Cook – Hargrave HS (TX) – BA Rank NR
950. SS Vance Vizcaino – Wakefield HS (NC) – BA Rank NR
980. 1B Jonathan Leroux – Northeastern U – BA Rank NR
1010. RHP Jared Price – Twin Valley HS (PA) – BA Rank 232
1040. SS Mikey White – Spain Park HS (AL) – BA Rank 183
1070. RHP Bradley Markey – Santa Fe CC – BA Rank 465
1100. SS Donovan Walton – Bishop Kelly HS (OK) – BA Rank NR
1130. C Benny Distefano – Lawrence E Elkins HS (TX) – BA Rank NR
1160. 3B Jeff Reynolds – Harvard – BA Rank NR
1190. 2B Patrick Irvin – Pace HS (FL) – BA Rank NR
1220. RHP David Gonzalez – Gainesville HS (GA) – BA Rank 348

Depending on how many of those high school kids they sign this could actually turn out to be at least a solid draft for the Mets considering it was the first year of the new CBA.

St Lucie To Flushing Draft Series Part 6: Interview with Baseball America’s Jim Callis

I had the opportunity to just a couple days ago have a phone interview with the Executive Editor of Baseball America Jim Callis. Jim is one the best guys out there for draft info so it was cool to get to chat with him. He produced two mock drafts so far for Baseball America. Both times he has given the Mets Barbe High School (Louisiana) short stop Gavin Cecchini. Click play below to listen to my chat with Jim Callis.

Interview with Baseball America’s Jim Callis

St Lucie To Flushing Draft Series Part 5: Interview With MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo

I had the opportunity to record an interview with MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo yesterday. We talked about a range of things related to the draft and you will struggle to find someone better in the business when it comes to draft coverage. Be aware that toward the end of this interview there was a Yankees question as this interview should get some play on a Long Island radio station so I had to keep it broad. But then again this draft series is about the draft as a whole, not just the Mets. Click the play button below to hear my interview with MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo.

Interview with MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo

St Lucie To Flushing 2012 MLB Mock Draft 4.0

1. Houston Astros – RHP Mark Appel – Stanford – Word around (also stated by John Manuel from Baseball America in the interview he did with me) is that Houston is considering Byron Buxton, Appel and Kevin Gausman for the #1 pick. They are talking trying to get a guy for as much as $2M under slot for the #1 pick so they have more money to spread out to their other picks. Appel could be a guy willing to give a hometown discount as he has plenty of ties to the area and he’s certainly deserving of being the #1 pick talent wise.

2. Minnesota Twins – OF Byron Buxton – Appling County HS (GA) – The Twins are likely considering the same 3 guys as Houston is for #1. I do not think they’d pass on Appel if he were to fall to them. But with Appel off the board I cannot imagine the Twins passing on a potential star like Buxton. There are plenty of scouts who like him better than Bubba Starling who went #5 to Kansas City last year with much hype. This is a quality upside pick for Minnesota.

3. Seattle Mariners – C Mike Zunino – Florida – I think Seattle would take Buxton if he were here. I don’t believe they are heavy in on any of the college arms and unless they are truly convinced of Lucas Giolito’s health I cannot see the pick going any way other than Zunino at this point. He is the top catcher in the draft and fits the value at #3. He can be fast tracked through the minors to catch up with some of their top pitchers like last year’s #2 overall pick Danny Hultzen and righty Taijuan Walker.

4. Baltimore Orioles – RHP Kevin Gausman – LSU – The Orioles could consider Giolito if they are comfortable with his health to pair him with Dylan Bundy to be a possible dominant long term 1-2 for Baltimore. I stay with arms and give them in my personal opinion the best college arm in this draft in Kevin Gausman. He can touch 99 and shows a nice feel for a curve and slider. Given what seems like a potential fast tracking of Bundy you can see him and Gausman coming up together for the O’s.

5. Kansas City Royals – RHP Lance McCullers Jr – Jesuit HS (FL) – Time for the drafts first spin. There are people who question if McCullers is a starter or not. I personally think he is and is being underrated by some. Remember just this time last year McCullers was considered the outright favorite to go #1 overall in this draft. McCullers possesses the best pure stuff in this draft and I think if he falls with the right organization that develops him correctly you are looking at a potential star #1 pitcher. Kansas City has been well represented at games in which McCullers has pitched this year so I think they may pull the trigger if Appel or Gausman are off the board.

6. Chicago Cubs – OF Albert Almora – Mater HS (FL) – As of now I believe the Cubs pick will come down to Almora or prep left hander Max Fried who’s stock has slipped some. Almora shows a real high upside bat and the ability to stick as a plus center fielder in pro ball. If the bat matures some he can end up being an All Star in this league. I don’t like to play comparisons but when there are multiple scouts who float the name Carlos Beltran in regards to Almora it gets your attention.

7. San Diego Padres – SS Carlos Correa – Puerto Rico Baseball Academy – You will hear some people say Correa is arguably the best player in this draft. I just didn’t find a pure fit for him in the first 6 picks. The Padres get a great value in a kid who can rake and also play the field with a big time arm. He is likely to end up at third base at some point in pro ball but his bat and arm will play there. Big time upside here and San Diego adds to their already stacked system with another premier talent.

8. Pittsburgh Pirates – SS Deven Marrero – Arizona State – The Pirates have spent like wild men the last couple years in the draft. I think this year you are going to see them look to spread out their money so they can acquire more talent throughout. I think you are looking at a situation here where they may work out a pre-draft deal with Marrero to ensure they get him at a below slot value. His bat is a bit of a question mark but he shows a good eye at the plate and definitely will stick at short long term which is extremely valuable in this league.

9. Miami Marlins – RHP Marcus Stroman – Duke – Could they go prep like outfielder Courtney Hawkins or Fried? Certainly possible but I am having Miami working out a pre-draft under-slot deal with a real fast riser type arm in Stroman. Stroman could be in the Major Leagues Opening Day 2013 and before long become a very good closer in this league if the team chooses to choose that route. You are going to have trouble finding anyone who feels Stroman can start long term given his very small frame and effort in his delivery. I believe the Marlins are going to be looking at spending more in some other rounds so I can see them getting a guy like Stroman who would certainly sign for below slot at #9.

10. Colorado Rockies – OF Courtney Hawkins – Carroll HS (TX) – Colorado is looking for bats to add to the system. At this point in the draft you probably aren’t drafting a better fit than Hawkins. Even if Hawkins has to transition to right field in pro ball his bat will certainly carry at that spot. He has probably the best raw power outside of Joey Gallo and has shown an improved approach at the plate this spring. He has great upside and what will prove very important in this draft is likely signable at this spot despite a scholarship to the University of Texas.

11. Oakland Athletics – RHP Kyle Zimmer – San Francisco – The A’s reportedly are interested in the group of college arms that would be around in this part of the draft (Michael Wacha, Andrew Heaney, Chris Stratton) but they luck out in a potential top 5 selection in Kyle Zimmer falls to them. Zimmer’s stock flew up this spring when he was reportedly hitting 98 on the gun to go with a quality breaking ball. His velocity is fallen back and he pulled a hamstring which is putting a hair of caution in teams. It’s certainly possible Zimmer is long gone by this spot but if he is here I cannot possibly see the A’s passing. Not unlike last year when Sonny Gray fell to them and they snagged him up.

12. New York Mets – LHP Max Fried – Harvard Westlake HS (CA) – I will preface this by saying it is entirely possible that Fried is long gone by time the Mets pick at 12. But I think given what some teams are looking to do it is a possibility that Fried falls to 12. I asked this to MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo on Twitter and he said he thought it was possible that he could be available for the Mets. The Mets have seen a lot of Fried this spring through his ups and downs. The upside is undeniable and I think if Fried falls to 12 the Mets would be ecstatic to select him. Latest I am hearing in regards to the Mets is unless someone falls (ala Fried) they are looking at some prep bats and would also consider Texas A+M righty Michael Wacha.

13. Chicago White Sox – RHP Michael Wacha – Texas A+M – The White Sox are a team that typically stays around slot or below. I do not expect this to change. This time around they get themselves a solid right hander in Wacha who projects as a quality #3 starter with possibility to be a #2. He is the perfect fit for them: a guy who won’t break the bank and a guy who can help them quickly.

14. Cincinnati Reds – LHP Andrew Heaney – Oklahoma State – Heaney is really come on and is meriting a mid-first round pick this year. He is a lefty who gets it up to 93 on his fastball with a slider and change-up too. He looks like someone who will pitch in the middle of a MLB rotation for years to come and I think that is undervalued. You can’t go for pure upside with every first round pick, sometimes it makes sense to grab a guy who you are pretty certain will be a quality guy for you.

15. Cleveland Indians – 3B Richie Shaffer – Clemson – Cleveland can certainly use some legitimate power bats in their system and unless they are believers in Joey Gallo they aren’t going to get a better one at this stage than Shaffer. He has the most power, the best bat speed among college guys. He has shown improved abilities at 3rd base but it is still uncertain if he will play there long term. Regardless of position his bat will play anywhere. This is a good pick by the Indians at this stage.

16. Washington Nationals – RHP Chris Stratton – Mississippi State
17. Toronto Blue Jays – RHP Nick Travieso – Archbishop McCarthy HS (FL)
18. Los Angeles Dodgers – RHP Zach Eflin – Hagerty HS (FL)
19. St Louis Cardinals – 3B Stephen Piscotty – Stanford
20. San Francisco Giants – RHP Walker Weickel – Olympia HS (FL)
21. Atlanta Braves – OF D.J. Davis – Stone County HS (Miss.)
22. Toronto Blue Jays – OF David Dahl – Oak Mountain HS (AL)
23. St Louis Cardinals – SS Corey Seager – Northwest Carrabus HS (NC)
24. Boston Red Sox – SS Gavin Cecchini – Barbe HS (LA)
25. Tampa Bay Rays – RHP Ty Hensley – Edmond Santa Fe HS (OK)
26. Arizona Diamondbacks – 3B Joey Gallo – Bishop Gorman HS (NV)
27. Milwaukee Brewers – OF Tyler Naquin – Texas A+M
28. Milwaukee Brewers – C Stryker Trahan – Acadiana HS (LA)
29. Texas Rangers – RHP Duane Underwood – Pope HS (GA)
30. New York Yankees – SS Addison Russell – Pace HS (FL)
31. Boston Red Sox – OF Victor Roache – Georgia Southern



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