Oh the fun of spring training. On April 1 we will all look back at March 15th and laugh at the fact that it was reported that day that Luis Hernandez will be named the second baseman for the New York Mets. Not only is he, well, not good, but every single competitor is better off being the second baseman than him. Yes even Luis Castillo. No offense to the New York Post, but I simply cannot buy into this story.

Terry Collins has said all spring that second base is an offensive position now. Well if that’s the case how can you possibly even remotely consider Luis Hernandez? Not only is his limited MLB sample size awful (.245/.286/.298), but his 3,324 at bat minor league stats are pretty poor (.255/.302/.331). Hernandez is out of options, I bet if he doesn’t make the team nobody even claims him on waivers.

It is apparent Justin Turner probably will go to AAA due to having options. It’s looking more and more like Luis Castillo will be released. Daniel Murphy simply cannot in any way handle the position, and probably will be your utility lefty bat off the bench. This leaves you with one guy, Brad Emaus.

Emaus, the Rule V pick from the Blue Jays hasn’t performed much as of yet in spring training. But let’s not overreact about spring training stats. If that were the case let’s all flip out about David Wright’s .100 batting average. I think with more play Emaus will improve. And frankly given the state of the team, why not try Emaus?

If you opt not to start him, Toronto will surely take him back. Why not give the young kid with some projectability to go with solid minor league stats (career .276/.364/.426 slash line). Sure, Emaus may stink up the place to start the year. But given his offensive skill-set it is worth a gamble. He has some power, has a fantastic eye and actually has a chance to be a long-term option at the position. None of the other competitors to me have that possibility.

I think given the team that is being fielded, you have the opportunity where you can take a risk that Emaus ends up being even decent. Would you take a .270/.350 10-12 home run bat at the 7 or 8 spot? That is the kind of offensive season I could see Emaus putting up. If Collins is true to his word that second is an offensive position, then Emaus or Turner are probably the best options. Given Turner’s options, give Emaus a look. Worst case scenario you send him back and you still have Turner, Murphy, or heck even Ruben Tejada to fill in.

Starting today I am going to work on a daily piece where I am going to give my early projections on how I foresee the Mets arranging their minor league lineups and rotations. I will also throw in some bullpen arms that I think will be in each affiliates bullpen, but with so many bullpen spots in the minors it’s near impossible to predict exactly how it will fully shake out. I am going to only cover the full season ball teams, and I will start in Triple-A Buffalo which looks like it will be an extremely strong offensive team with some good pitching too. Here is my prediction for Buffalo’s Opening Day lineup:

1. Ruben Tejada – SS – Terry Collins said Tejada will be playing exclusively shortstop in AAA.
2. Kirk Nieuwenhuis – CF – Had rough go in first stint in AAA, but expect him to hit well and he very well could get a call up by mid-season if injuries occur.
3. Fernando Martinez – LF – Will he ever be healthy? If so you can expect big numbers from him here, and a likely call-up at some point during 2011.
4. Lucas Duda – 1B – Will also play some corner outfield to improve versatility, but I expect him to mow through the International League again.
5. Zach Lutz – 3B – Was once told that Lutz is one of, if not the best pure hitter in the organization but is never healthy enough to show it. Can really only play 1B/3B so he may be blocked in this organization.
6. Justin Turner – 2B – Like him and Russ Adams to play a lot here, and Turner will also DH some I’m sure. He has dominated throughout his minor league career, if there’s an injury up the middle there is a chance he could get a call.
7. Josh Satin – DH – I think they will really work on his versatility this year, and he will DH too because he can hit. I think he will be a productive utility guy very soon.
8. Jason Pridie – RF – Will try to prove he’s over the injuries in 2010 and regain that very strong 4th OF form that people projected of him.
9. Raul Chavez – C – Mike Nickeas will take this job once Ronny Paulino’s PED suspension is up. They simply need someone good to catch and handle the few young arms that will be in Buffalo’s rotation.

This lineup has a chance to lead the IL in almost every offensive category. It is an extremely strong AAA lineup top to bottom, and has guys that if injuries occur I am comfortable with them stepping up to the big league team and being able to contribute there.

Tomorrow: Buffalo’s Starting Rotation. Special thanks to PSL2F contributor Tejesh Patel, also of Mets Prospect Hub for his input on these projections.

Over the past few days i’ve heard more and more that Paul Maholm is fully on the trading block. The pirates may seek a young SS who plays good defense to fill out their infield, such as Ruben Tejada. They had been trying for Jason Barlett (who was dealt to the Padres) and J.J. Hardy (who was dealt to the Orioles) in past weeks. I’m sure the Pirates could always engage the Cardinals about Brendan Ryan. However they may like Tejada as a younger piece to an already extremely young infield.

Paul Maholm would give the Mets balance in their rotation. As of now the only lefty scheduled to be in the rotation is Niese. Other options Pelfrey, Dickey, Gee, Mejia are all righty. Even signing Chris Young would give the Mets 4 righties and 1 lefty in the rotation. Maholm went 9-15, 5.10 era, 1.60 k/bb for Pittsburgh in 2010. I feel he could play an important role in our rotation as a 4 or 5 starter.

I’d suppose Ruben Tejada and Jeurys Familia could be a good package for Maholm. Possibly adding a low level guy to the package. I’m not saying Maholm would be a #2 starter, but I strongly believe he could be a solid 4th starter in Citi Field with our offense. I think this would be a smart acquisition for Sandy and Co. Tejada is not going to be finding a job on the Mets anytime soon. And Familia’s potential remains to be seen. This move would make a heck of alot of sense for the Mets right now.

Based on what we think we know about Sandy Alderson here is a partial list of players I think might make some sense going after on the FA market. Alderson made pretty clear the Mets will NOT be players for the “big” players in the FA market but the Mets without question will need to plug some holes within the offense (2b, backup catcher)

1B- Ike Davis unquestionably is our starting 1b but it would be surprising to see Chris Carter back with the Mets this year considering he is out of options and his absolutely horrendous fielding. The fact Carter (like Davis) hits lefty doesn’t help his case. The FA 1b market does not have any “clear” options for a righty hitting 1b to backup Ike. The best option available looks to be Ty Wigginton who conceivably could join the Mets as a platoon partner/insurance with Ruben Tejada (for all we know Sandy intends to send Ruben back to AAA where he more likely than not still belongs) maybe Justin Turner is the Mets starting 2b but Wigginton has the “power” Sandy spoke about in the press conference, can play 1b/2b/3b and the corner OF position and has some of the “fire” the Mets have been lacking. Wiggy hit 248/312/415 with 22 homers this season.

2b- Personally I am of the belief that if the Mets can’t get a true MAJOR upgrade at 2b (Uggla, Kelly Johnson etc) I would roll the dice with Tejada/Murphy/Turner with a veteran backup like Eckstein but the current list of FA 2b includes Orlando Hudson (he’s older and said he has no interest in splitting time with a young player so he doesn’t seem like an ideal fit), Jose Lopez who almost surely will be non-tendered (personally I am not a fan of his) and the legend known as Kaz Matsui

SS- We have a SS (hopefully Reyes retires a Met) but the FA SS market is rather weak. Maybe the Mets look at someone like Counsell as a backup/utility player but I have a hard time believing the Mets sign anyone of note to backup Reyes

3b- Same as SS. Adrian Beltre is likely the cream of the crop at the hot corner but we have Wright… hopefully for the next 10-12 years.

OF- The Mets figure to have Bay/Beltan/Pagan (in some configuration) in the OF. It’s pretty clear they won’t be in on Carl Crawford or Jayson Werth. I think they need to add an above average 4th OF considering the fact that Bay/Pagan/Beltran are all injury prone/concerns. Options would include Rick Ankiel, Austin Kearns, Eric Hinske, Podsednik (I’d love to add Podsednik as our 4th OF but someone likely signs him to start)

C- The Mets need a backup catcher. They can resign Blanco though his age (40) and injury issues are likely a decent concern. Options include Rod Barajas (yuck), Miguel Olivo (I’d make him an offer) if the Rockies don’t pick up his option, John Buck (he’s going to get a starting job from someone more likely than not), Pierzynski (is he ok as a backup? who knows), Varitek (might make a nice mentor for Thole) and Greg Zaun (if the Brewers turn down his option)

We are almost through another woeful season for the Mets, likely to end the year below .500, and possibly another top 10 pick. So now you have to start asking the question, what can they do to fix it so 2011 isn’t another wash? It first starts with a new GM, and a new manager. I don’t know who the new GM will be (I just pray it’s an outside candidate), and I’d guess the manager is probably Bobby Valentine or Wally Backman. But while those changes are completely necessary, you also have to realize the on-field product needs work too.

One thing I feel the team is lacking is a pure slugger. Sure David Wright, Ike Davis, Jason Bay, Carlos Beltran(if still here) could hit some home runs, but they aren’t that guy that every time he comes up I feel a home run coming. One player that could be available via trade this offseason that does fit that criteria is Dan Uggla. With the team highly likely to part ways with Luis Castillo one way or another, the 2nd base job will be open. Sure you could go no bat all defense in Ruben Tejada, or suspect defense and I guess OK bat in Daniel Murphy, and they should be able to atleast replicate Castillo’s putrid 2010.

But why not significantly upgrade? Sure Uggla is not a good defender by any means, but I am sick and tired of sacrificing offense for defense. The Seattle Mariners tried that this year, and look where they are. Uggla is a bonafide slugger at a position of need, and he’s someone that I don’t believe Citi Field would really diminish his home run totals much at all as nearly every home run I see him hit is an absolute bomb, whether at Citi Field or anywhere else.

Uggla’s OPS+ this year is at 128, and has a 116 mark for his career. 100 is considered to be an average player, thus Uggla is a pretty decently above average offensive player, not a star, but a strong hitter. For fun, Luis Castillo’s OPS+ this year is a mere 67, and his career is 92. Tejada’s OPS+ this year is 44, and Murphy’s in 2009 was 95 making him even a below average player. But one thing Uggla has the ability to do that none of the other candidates have is the ability to hit the home run on any given at bat against any given pitcher. That ability is something that cannot be taught, he can always be taught to be a better defender. With the right coaching you can always improve footwork to get a better first step and make you atleast passable at the position.

I just think it’s time for the team to just forget about the defense at one position and just go with a real pure slugger like Uggla. Now you can ask, well why would Florida trade him then? Well, it looks as if they are at a standstill on extension talks with Uggla, and he has one more year of arbitration before free agency, where you can expect him to make close to $10M via arbitration. If you offer Florida the right package, I’d bet they’d be willing to make a trade, and they have not been afraid to deal good players within division, especially to the Mets (see Paul Lo Duca, Carlos Delgado). Could a package like outfielder Kirk Nieuwenhuis or Fernando Martinez + a replacement 2B in Tejada entice them? I’d certainly be willing to explore that.

There is little doubt that the Mets need a shake-up this offseason, starting with a new GM at the helm to rebuild this team. We can argue who should be the next GM, but that debate will be for another piece. I am sure internal candidates John Ricco and Wayne Krivsky will get a look, as long as some external candidates including ex-long time Padres GM and current Yankees assistant Kevin Towers. The next GM’s responsibility will be making sure Oliver Perez and Luis Castillo are not on this team, as well as figuring out this Francisco Rodriguez fiasco. Trading Carlos Beltran is also something that can be considered depending on what you can get in return, and how much money you have to eat to move his $18.5M expiring deal.

Even though the Mets have one playoff appearance in his tenure, and even though 2009(mainly injury based) and 2010 have been very bad years for the team, Omar Minaya does deserve some credit for the work he’s done while here as GM. Yes he’s given out his share of bad contracts, Luis Castillo, Oliver Perez, Julio Franco, Marlon Anderson, Orlando Hernandez, but he’s done some good things too. He put the Mets back on the map after multiple 70 win seasons, he made them relevant again.

Unfortunately the ship has sailed on Omar, and a new face is needed. But one thing Mets fans can look at from the possible end of Omar’s regime and be happy about is the fact that he’s kept all the prospects. For most people, when your job is on the line, you will do virtually anything to make sure you keep it. Fortunately Omar Minaya did not do this. He could’ve easily panicked and given Seattle Ike Davis,Jenrry Mejia and more for Cliff Lee, or given up Ruben Tejada and Bobby Parnell for Brett Myers, or given up Josh Thole and Bobby Parnell for Ted Lilly. But he didn’t.

I would assume if he is relieved of his GM title, he will be moved to a role of assistant GM and head of scouting or something like that. I will give him some credit for keeping this ever improving farm system in tact. He has certainly had his downsides as a GM, but he’s done plenty of good things that he will not get credit for because of the way the team has performed lately. One would think that the Wilpon’s definitely held Omar back from doing what he does best, which is the big move. When Omar was hired, all people talked about was how he loved making the big move. Now were 5 years later and he is making very few moves. That doesn’t sound like Omar Minaya to me.

I am in no way advocating a return as GM for Minaya. Between the lack of ability to speak to the media properly, and the fact the team, even if talented has gone nowhere since 2006. If he is let go as GM as expected, I think Mets fans should be able to look back at his tenure and say, you know, he didn’t actually do as bad a job as some like to think. He’s leaving the GM role with a farm system that is getting better and better, and a major league roster with star players, and young MLB ready talent. The Mets are very well built for the long haul, and a lot of credit does deserve to go to Omar Minaya.