There is an obvious lull in movement this off season due to the lack of finances that Sandy Alderson is permitted to work with. He did bring in guys like Frank Francisco, Jon Rauch, Ramon Ramirez and Andres Torres, but there’s a chance that most of those guys are traded for prospects before the 2012 season is complete. I thought now would be a good time to pick 3 legitimate prospects from the farm that can impact the 2012 Mets.

1. RHP Jeurys Familia – In 2012 between High-A St Lucie and Double-A Binghamton Familia started 23 games and posted an ERA of 2.90. In 124 innings he allowed 106 hits, 11 home runs and had a K/BB of 3.07 (132 K/43 BB). I saw Familia start in Double-A and came away impressed with his fastball that sat 93-95 and touched 97 three times. With a change in his delivery to be more upright I saw more downward plane on his slider and an improved but still below average change-up. He has the ceiling of a #3 starter but in my opinion his delivery and arsenal might be best suited for late inning relief duty. I still think his slider and change need more work to be the type of guy I call a lock down closer. I consider him a pretty safe bet to be a quality 8^th inning guy at the MLB level with the chance for more depending on how he improves. I see Familia starting in Triple-A and possibly being someone who can come up this year if there is a need in the rotation.

2. OF Kirk Nieuwenhuis – If Nieuwenhuis did not sustain the shoulder injury he did in 2011 there is a good chance we are talking about him as the center fielder for the 2012 Mets and chances are Andres Torres is not traded for. GM Sandy Alderson has come out and said that he feels Nieuwenhuis is about half a season away from being ready. I think that means if Torres does not perform like he should, Kirk could take over his job by the All Star Break. From what I have seen from Nieuwenhuis and what I have been told he is more or less average across the board tools wise. He is the type of guy I can see going 15/15 at the big league level. He does not have the arm for a corner and there’s question about his range to play center so he is a bit of a tweener. The way he plays the outfield reminds me a bit of Eric Byrnes who did man center for some time in Oakland. Nieuwenhuis is afraid of nothing and goes 110% after every ball. I’d put the likelihood of seeing him roaming center field at Citi Field this summer extremely high if he’s healthy.

3. 2B Reese Havens – PLEASE STAY HEALTHY KID. I have seen Reese Havens play in Binghamton the last two seasons and he is one of the most impressive hitters that I have seen as a B-Met in those couple years. He has a very smooth short stroke and barrels up the ball consistently. He drives the ball with authority all over the field and has a very good knowledge of the strike zone. Defensively I think the best you’re going to get is average, but he is comfortable around the bag turning the double play and makes all the plays he should. But he simply cannot stay healthy at all. Every year since being drafted he’s been hurt. The hope is that he will finally be healed from the surgery he had that shaved some rib off which was causing issues with his oblique. The Mets gave him the whole off season off to cure it and are confident he will come to camp ready to go. If that’s the case then I think it will be tough for the Mets to not have Havens up playing 2^nd base every day sooner than later. I have always felt Daniel Murphy was best in a role where he spot started all over the place and was a quality left handed bat off the bench. I do not have the confidence he can play 2^nd base full time and I am not a big Justin Turner fan. If you are a Mets fan you are praying for Havens’s healthy. If he is healthy and he gets some quality big league time he will open a ton of eyes around the league.

With word out there that the White Sox are shopping pitchers Gavin Floyd and John Danks it spurred an idea in my head that the Mets should absolutely be in on one of these arms. Danks is expected to make $6-$7M this year through arbitration then he is a free agent while Floyd will make $7M this year and there is a team option for 2013 worth $9.5M.

My original thought was the Mets should trade a prospect package like say Wilmer Flores and Darin Gorski for Floyd. Then I remembered the White Sox have the worst farm system in baseball and don’t seem to have a ton of interest in improving it. One of my Twitter followers @daturk22 then presented an idea that got me to write this piece.

What if the Mets trade Angel Pagan for Floyd? Ok I figure since the contract of Floyd is nice it’ll take a prospect with him. I figure I would throw in either Fernando Martinez or Gorski. The White Sox are always about acquiring big league pieces that can help, especially on the offensive side of the ball. You give them Pagan and they can trade Carlos Quentin or play him in left field and move Alex Rios to right field. They also can obtain a pitcher like Gorski who can be a back end type starter or a guy like Martinez who possesses great upside but with a ton of injuries. Theoretically if they deal Quentin they can try out an OF consisting of Martinez-Pagan-Rios to open 2012. Not the flashiest, but in that division don’t you think the White Sox need to take some risks? If SOMEHOW Martinez stayed healthy (maybe alternate DH/LF with him and Dunn?) they’d be getting some good right now offense for a #3/#4 type starter.

Now how does this work for the Mets? Well first off they are not keen on the idea of bringing back Angel Pagan at ~$5M because they consider him to be more of a quality 4th outfielder who can fill in than someone who is a full time player though it is not believed that is the general consensus throughout baseball. The Mets also could use some starting pitching help this year with the questions around Johan Santana. If you acquire a Floyd you can put Dillon Gee in Triple-A or the bullpen if Santana is healthy. But if Santana isn’t good to go then you have Gee for the rotation and you added a more quality pitcher rather than a #5 type starter like Jason Marquis.

How will the Mets afford the $7M that Floyd is making? Well if you believe Jon Heyman of SI that the Mets were likely to tender Pagan at $5M then you can look at it as a net $2M addition. Even the Mets should be able to swing that. I think that is the kind of trade that can benefit both the Mets and the White Sox. Is it a kind of deal that Chicago would without question do? No probably not. But I bet it would be up there as one of the better offers they’ll get. I think the Mets need to be creative this year and not just try to plug the holes with free agents. Sandy Alderson needs to make some trades, and pursuing a trade along these lines sounds like a no brainer to me.

Outside of signing Jose Reyes (do we need another article giving their opinion on if the Mets should sign him or not?) the most important role to be filled on the 2012 Mets is at the closer position. There are a bevy of options available at the position ranging from Jonathan Papelbon and Heath Bell to guys like Brad Lidge and Jonathan Broxton.

After the Mets dealt Francisco Rodriguez to the Brewers the closer position became a black hole. After he was dealt the Mets were 2nd in the NL in blown saves with 10. That is unacceptable and needs to be fixed immediately. I present you with an reasonable option who should do the job at a high level: Joe Nathan.

Nathan, 37 on November 22nd is coming off Tommy John surgery and enjoyed a good amount of success. From July 8th til the end of the year Nathan was 11-11 in save opportunities with a sub-3.00 ERA. He went to Stony Brook U and has openly said the Mets will be “on his radar” this off-season. It is also said that from Tommy John the 2nd season back is when you typically come back to normal, and 2012 would be Nathan’s 2nd season back.

Before undergoing the surgery Nathan was an elite closer who in the 6 seasons he closed for Minnesota never had below 36 saves, above a 2.70 ERA or more than 6 blown saves in any given year. If you bring him and he’s healthy, the closer role will not be an issue with the 2012 Mets.

If Reyes decides to depart I think it opens up more $ to be spent on the pen, rotation and center field. I will address what I would do at other spots in separate posts. As far as a contract for Nathan, I’d figure you could get him for 1 year with a team option for a 2nd at say 6M guaranteed. If Sandy Alderson is truthful that he’s not trying to punt regardless of Jose Reyes he simply cannot go and grab the cheapest closer he can. I am not a proponent of guaranteed multi-year deals to a closer, but I think Nathan on a one year deal with an option is an excellent investment.

I know I have been saying for weeks that I would be trading K-Rod regardless of where the Mets are in the standings come July 31st. I feel like I may have changed my stance, and no it has absolutely nothing to do with the late success of the Mets. For me this is strategic planning that I am sure has entered the mind of Sandy Alderson: Let July 31st come and go without trading closer Francisco Rodriguez.

I am sure I will receive many tweets asking me “why would you keep him?”, “you can’t possibly keep him and pay him $17.5M next year!” and possibly some that’ll read “you are an idiot”. The general consensus among Mets fans is trade K-Rod for whatever you could get to avoid that $17.5M option for 2012. In theory you probably are right. But what if it doesn’t?

If the Mets trade off Carlos Beltran and Jason Isringhausen or others it’s extremely likely the major league team will be negatively affected talent wise. This should theoretically make the team worse, which would lead to less save chances, which would lead to fewer games finished. What if you ride the K-Rod train into August and if you feel that he could obtain the option you eat the money and take whatever you can get like fans want to do now?

Then on the opposite side of the coin, if the Mets start to flounder after selling off some pieces and it looks likely that he would not reach his games finished number then you can keep him for the entirety of the 2011 season and then decline the option, offer arbitration and net two draft picks from whomever signs him. This is obviously a huge risk, possibly even one that is outside of the willingness of Alderson.

It could backfire in his face hard. K-Rod could look like he isn’t going to get the games finished and then in September the Mets play well and he racks up the games finished. Regardless of what any fan wants, the Mets simply cannot limit K-Rod’s usage, especially in save opportunities or the union will be right on them. Or you could have trouble moving him in August without eating a ton of salary because he looks more likely to achieve the games finished if the Mets play better than expected.

I think the thing about Sandy Alderson is he will not go by the book. He is not going to always do what “sounds right”. I think he’s one of few GM’s who would consider this gutsy move. So I proclaim this to you Mr Alderson, keep Francisco Rodriguez through the deadline. Let’s see if there is a chance that you could end up not having the option vest and net two draft picks to strengthen the already improving farm system.

Recently reports surfaced that the Mets may indeed shop David Wright this summer and keep Jose Reyes instead. I personally think they both will be Mets in 2012, but let’s ponder a option for minute. This option is Wilmer Flores.

It’s common knowledge that Wilmer Flores will outgrow his position (SS) by a large margin. The accepted idea as of late has been that he will eventually end up in a corner OF position. LF seems as if he best option. Think Carlos Lee…

However maybe the OF isn’t necessarily the best option. Why not 3B? I know I know the star who’s not very super plays there. I actually disagree with that statement. David Wright is a superstar. And that’s HOW we should be marketing him! Why? Because high value is always a good thing when teams have interest in a player.

What could we get for David Wright? A team’s #1 pitching prospect for sure. Probably one of there 2 best position prospects as well. It may not be the worst idea if Sandy and Co. believe Wilmer Flores can handle 3B.

****Just remember it will be ALOT harder to replace Jose Reyes then it will be David Wright. Especially if Flores can handle the position.****

I tend to believe Flores could handle 3B. He doesn’t play an awful SS. Yes he will grow…but maybe he will grow into a 3B. Hmmm very interesting idea no? He doesn’t light the world on fire with his arm strength. However his arm isn’t awful. Maybe we should be thinking Aramis Ramirez instead of Carlos Lee. Or that god awful Miguel Cabrera comparison he had bestowed on him at the age of 16. I believe if we turn him into a 3B he could become a Aramis Ramirez type player. It’s not that big of a stretch at his current ceiling is it? Regardless it’s an option.

In early May the San Francisco Giants visited Citi Field for a 3 game series with the Mets. Mets lost 2 out of 3 games, though put up a fight in each game. For some reason that week a rumor began to float around of a possible trade brewing between the Mets and Giants for Jose Reyes. Obviously these rumors were false given the date of the season. But were they completely false?

I’m not saying I believe Sandy Alderson discussed dealing Reyes with Brian Sabean in early May. However the buzz surrounding the rumors may have been just foreshadowing a possible deal. The Giants recently recalled top prospect Brandon Belt from AAA. Today news broke that they plan to use him in a bench role. In my opinion that is the worst thing they could do with a young player like Belt. Unless say they are showcasing him for a possible trade…

Brandon Belt is a 1B by trade. However many people believe he could handle a corner OF position at the Major League level. That means maybe he could slide into RF when Beltran is traded/leaves in FA (most likely traded). Obviously 1B is locked up in Metsie land for years to come with one of my personal favorite players Ike Davis. If Belt can handle RF he could bring a nice young bat to the Mets lineup.

Who else could be in play in a possible trade? Maybe Brandon Crawford. Crawford was just promoted from Single-A to the majors. That’s a pretty major jump even for a prospect of Crawfords age (24). The Giants may be trying to showcase Crawford for a possible trade as well.

The last person of interest in a possible Mets/Giants Reyes trade is Zack Wheeler. He is the top Giants pitching prospect. More than likely if Sabean/Alderson do talk this guy’s name will be brought up. I doubt we could get Belt and Wheeler for Reyes without them getting a window to negotiate a new contract. But crazier things have happened. Maybe we can throw in Thole to replace Buster Posey, who will be lost for most of the 2011 season after his injury.

Either way don’t be surprised if you start hearing Mets/Giants trade rumors heating up as we approach the July 31 trade deadline.